Posted on 12/25/2022 9:44:19 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
RuZZian Artillery losses Running Total: 449
December 2022 – 15
November 2022 – 55
October 2022 – 64
September 2022 - 73
August 2022 – 21
July 2022 – 21
June 2022 – 18
May 2022 – 20
April 2022 – 52
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110
Merry Christmas to all!
“Putin’s Last Stand”
“The Promise and Peril of Russian Defeat”
“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine was meant to be his crowning achievement, a demonstration of how far Russia had come since the collapse of the Soviet empire in 1991. Annexing Ukraine was supposed to be a first step in reconstructing a Russian empire. Putin intended to expose the United States as a paper tiger outside Western Europe and to demonstrate that Russia, along with China, was destined for a leadership role in a new, multipolar international order.
It hasn’t turned out that way. Kyiv held strong, and the Ukrainian military has been transformed into a juggernaut, thanks in part to a close partnership with the United States and Western allies. The Russian military, in contrast, has demonstrated poor strategic thinking and organization. The political system behind it has proved unable to learn from its mistakes. With little prospect of dictating Putin’s actions, the West will have to prepare for the next stage of Russia’s disastrous war of choice.
War is inherently unpredictable. Indeed, the course of the conflict has served to invalidate widespread early prognostications that Ukraine would quickly fall; a reversal of fortunes is impossible to discount. It nevertheless appears that Russia is headed for defeat. Less certain is what form this defeat will take. Three basic scenarios exist, and each one would have different ramifications for policymakers in the West and Ukraine.”
Merry Christmas to all y’all.
Merry Christmas!
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Dec 24, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... )
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
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Extras:
Ukraine Seizes Ka-26 Helicopter At Hungarian Border Crossing
The Soviet-era helicopter was apparently flyable up until fairly recently and was based at an airfield south of Kyiv.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-seizes-vintage-ka-26-helicopter-at-hungarian-border-crossing
Used in Hungry was a crop duster. Boot leg manufacturer of Ka-26s busted.
—
Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Launches Rocket Attack On Kherson
As we hit the 10 month mark of Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian cities and the people in them remain the targets of indiscriminate attacks.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-grad-rocket-attack-strikes-kherson
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••day 304.
Today there is several good news first of all, in the southern part of the Luhansk’ region there have been some confirmations that the Ukrainians have created additional attack groups, assaulted all Russian positions around Dibrova and are about to bridge this last line of defense and start storming Karmina; last time I told you that the Ukrainians had gained significant access to the Russian main spot of Krimina defense line and even started assaulting three settlements on this line simultaneously Holikave, Cervono, Popifka.
I told you that the next logical step would be to take Placehanka and Dibroba which would finally open access to the two main strongholds north of the Siveski-Donets River: Svatova and Carmina and this is exactly what the Ukrainians decided to do starting with Dibrova four days ago.
Russian sources increasingly started reporting about the increased concentration of Ukrainian troops in the region, in particular Interne, Yampolivka, and Torska; they reported that the Ukrainians have reinforced this region with formations of several airborne brigades, and also noted significant deliveries of mortar and artillery shells.
Russian analysts concluded that the Ukrainians were preparing for a large-scale attack on Dibroba with the aim of further access to Krimina; two days ago their forecast was proven right, because the Ukrainians launched their offensive operation and assaulted Russian positions to the north of Dibrova.
To provide air support to ground troops, the Ukrainians engaged tactical aircraft SU-27 and MiG-29 from the airfield in Northern Ukraine, after significantly reducing the area of Russian control around Dibroba, the fights became positional with local checkpoints often changing hands several times per day. That is why the Ukrainians opened a second line of attack from the south to double the pressure on Russian forces.
In order to ensure that the Russians could not keep up with the intensity, the Ukrainians needed to act quickly, which is why they prepared additional pontoon bridges in the area of Cerebrianka and transported a lot of troops in a very short period of time; as a result, some sources indicate that the Russians lost almost all control over the forest, while other sources even suggest that the Russians left Dibroba.
When it comes to official updates, the Ukrainian head of the Luhansk’ region recently stated that decreasing temperatures have produced conditions conducive to fighting, and that Ukrainian forces are currently a few kilometers away from reaching Krimina, but the dense mine concentrations in the area are slowing Ukrainian advances; the statement is vague, but it clearly indicates that the Ukrainians were waiting for the temperature to drop to conduct an offensive, and it seems like so far everything has gone according to plan.
Other news is coming from Southern Ukraine, here the Ukrainians conducted a drone attack on Crimea today. At night, explosions were heard in the Nisnehirsk area. Russian sources reported that the Ukrainians launched several drones that headed towards the oil depot in the village of Raslivi.
Russian sources claimed that five drones were shot down near the border, and that out of two that were left, one was shot down right above the oil depot, and one near the thermal power plant.
However, the video showed that there were two drones near the depot, so there is an inconsistency between the facts and the narrative the attack of drones on the old depot was confirmed by Ukrainian military journalists.
Although no comments were given on the success of this operation, judging by the lack of footage of large fires, it seems like the targets were not damaged.
However, what is more interesting: some military analysts are saying that damaging the targets might not have been the goal of the Ukrainians. The main point is that the Ukrainians are using very cheap Chinese drones that cost maximum US$10,000.
In contrast, each rocket that shoots down the drones, costs up to US$200,000, so by conducting this massive drone attacks on Crimea, the Ukrainians may be cheaply achieving higher order objectives: firstly, the Ukrainians are forcing the Russians to spend their air defense missiles, secondly they increase the strain on Russian defense budget even more, and thirdly, they create a very precise map of Russian air defense coverage of Crimea, and evaluate how well it works, and in the long run this introduces even more dangers for the Russian bases in Crimea.
Vlad is not happy with these numbers. No wonder so many of his generals are swimming with the fishes in the frozen seas of the north country. I forget the name of that sea way between the Soviets and Norway, Sweeden, etc.
Merry Christmas!
The first and least likely scenario is that Russia will agree to its defeat by accepting a negotiated settlement on Ukraine’s terms. A great deal would have to change for this scenario to materialize because any semblance of diplomatic dialogue among Russia, Ukraine, and the West has vanished. The scope of Russian aggression and the extent of Russian war crimes would make it difficult for Ukraine to accept any diplomatic settlement that amounted to anything less than a total Russian surrender ...A second scenario for Russian defeat would involve failure amid escalation. The Kremlin would nihilistically seek to prolong the war in Ukraine while launching a campaign of unacknowledged acts of sabotage in countries that support Kyiv and in Ukraine itself. In the worst case, Russia could opt for a nuclear attack on Ukraine ...
The final scenario for the war’s end would be defeat through regime collapse, with the decisive battles taking place not in Ukraine but rather in the halls of the Kremlin or in the streets of Moscow. Putin has concentrated power rigidly in his own hands, and his obstinacy in pursuing a losing war has placed his regime on shaky ground. Russians will continue marching behind their inept tsar only to a certain point.
The Baltic Sea.
I think a variation of the 3rd option.
Brezhnev invaded Afghanistan. Followed by Andropov, Chernenko, and then Gorbachev. It was easier for a follow on leader to end the invasion.
Little Pukin invaded Ukraine. Pukin will die in office from cancer/disease. A follow on leader will end the disaster. But this could go on for years. 10 years is a guess.
So 3rd option, not necessarily regime collapse, but regime change.
Merry Christmas!
The Russians are now pushing hard to the north and south of Bakhmut. It appears they are trying now for the encirclement approach
10 years is a guess.
Unless the chinese can replace western tech that’s now unavailable to the russians—the Russians can’t last 10 years.
I think their economy will weather the storm but the russians will not be able to get the equipment needed for modern war.
It looks like the russians expect to lose the mainland part of the crimea. when that happens —they’ll likely blow up the bridge from the island part of Crimea.
The russians are building internal line of defense in the east that is far from the current front lines.
That looks to be the border they want to establish in the east.
So you can expect that the deal now that the russians are looking for now is the one that Putin and zelensky negotiated last May before the USA and the UK scotched the deal.
That is russia gets the island part of crimea and a bit of the east. Ukraine gets the rest.
imho its likely this winter that ukraine will take back much of the land in east that is not behind the tank traps that the russians are laying. further the russians expect the ukes to do that. as well, this winter the ukes will likely take back most of the south except for the island of crimea.
the ukes have to make that progress because its unlikely the west will fund a static war that goes for years.
I don’t know what happens after the ukes retake portions of the south and east that the russians already ceded in negotiations in May
Merry Christmas to you and yours!
A Merry Christmas!
Weird rumors and other things going on in Moscow and St Petersburg. Lukashenko went to Moscow 2 days ago but didn’t meet with Putin. Now Lukashenko is in St Petersburg to meet with Putin on Monday and Tuesday. Putin not seen in a few days. Rumors Putin caught COVID from Lukashenko earlier last week. Still rumblings about mass missile attack on Ukraine on 26th as well as attack from Belarus. US and NATO spy planes are not flying the usual missions in the air. Russian worries about Ukraine offensive towards Melitopol. Weird.
It’s amazing that anybody would still take any of this type of happy horsesh1t propaganda being blown up their skirt.
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