Posted on 11/23/2022 10:31:42 AM PST by SeekAndFind
As workforces shrink and opting out becomes increasingly attractive, Global Growth implodes on both the production and consumption sides.
A funny thing happened on the way to permanent global growth. Actually, three funny things happened. One is the cheap, easy-to-access materials that enabled a vast expansion of consumption have been pulled out of the ground and what's left will cost more going forward, meaning there will be less to squander on consumption.
True Believers are confident that some Savior Technology will emerge and scale up globally to save us from any nasty reduction in consumption, but they overlook the inconvenient fact that all the proposed Savior Technologies need vast quantities of the same materials that we've already consumed.
Two other funny things will also impact global growth: the sharp decline in birth rates in most developed and many developing nations--the Demographic Cliff--and the collapse of young workers' willingness to sacrifice themselves on the altar of Global Growth (i.e. systemic inequality) via working in miserable conditions for low pay--wages that will never enable the purchase of a home or support a family.
Since it's hopeless to secure "the good life," why bother sacrificing one's life? Why not enjoy life on a much more modest level?
This rejection of self-exploitation in service of further enriching the already-rich is global: The most descriptive terms are from China--laying flat and let it rot--but they apply to youth around the world.
Unfortunately for the already-rich benefiting from Global Growth, this puts upward pressure on global wages as employers have to offer higher wages to entice reluctant young workers: Younger Chinese are spurning factory jobs that power the economy (Reuters.com)
Higher wages might have some effect on the margins, but the real problem is vast wealth-income inequality created by hyper-financialization and hyper-globalization. Increasing wages by 10% isn't going to fix what's broken. Doubling wages and eliminating all taxes on labor would be a start. (Taxes on capital and financialization's churn would have to rise significantly to offset the elimination of taxes on labor.)
As the charts below indicate, the population of elderly living off the labor of the younger generations will soar, putting increasing financial pressure on governments and pension plans. Scrape away the hype and obfuscations and all pension/healthcare for the retired cohort are pay as you go, i.e. funded by taxes on the current workforce.
As that workforce shrinks, the burden will quickly become unbearable. Promises made when there were four workers for each retire break down when there's only 1.5 workers per retiree.
Wages' share of the economy has a long way to climb to reach previous levels. As wages rise, capital's share of the economy will have to shrink. The already-rich will become less rich.
Many commentators are confident young workers will be forced by need to take miserable jobs at miserable rates of pay. I suspect these commentators don't understand the immense spectrum of options to opt out. In developing economies, young people can return to villages with family homes and grandparents. Young people in both developed and developing economies can take informal gig jobs that earn just enough to get by, or find ways to produce real goods and services on a modest scale.
As I've often discussed here over the years, opting out is the best strategy when things fall apart. Trying to maximize your self-exploitation leads to burnout. The decision to abandon self-exploitation in service of increasing the wealth of the already-rich opens the door to Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.
As workforces shrink and opting out becomes increasingly attractive, Global Growth implodes on both the production and consumption sides. Toss in higher costs due to the depletion of the easy-to-exploit materials and the foundations of Permanent Global Growth crumble into dust.
Plan accordingly.
* * *
This rejection of self-exploitation in service of further enriching the already-rich is global: The most descriptive terms are from China--laying flat and let it rot--but they apply to youth around the world.
I think this is very important, and I feel like a lot of people don't see it.
The "quiet quitting" phenomenon is just people with jobs who don't care about their job. They are not conscientious. They don't see how working hard will help them achieve the American Dream (and I think they are largely right) so they show up and collect a paycheck but they don't really want to do more than that.
And, as Mike Rowe has been pointing out, there are millions of job openings out there. That is classically considered "opportunity". But there are millions of people sitting at home, NOT seeking those jobs. Unemployed people who are not interested in opportunities. They don't see why they should bother. They don't think it will get them anywhere.
The standard response is: "Kids are lazy these days", and "We should cut their benefits", and "They are too woke to work" and "They should move out of mom's basement". But I think we should not ignore the underlying fact that global growth is slowing and a whole lot of people are very pessimistic about ever achieving any kind of decent lifestyle.
US was known for the high quality of workers. Most people in the US worked very hard. As a result US became the richest country in the world.
The US capitalistic society basically forced people to compete and work as hard as they could!
But, since the COVID, people realized that they do not need to work so hard and so they are slacking. Pretty much like the rest of the world.
Like every socialistic experiment, the quality of life is going down!
Capital Siphoned $50 trillion dollars from workers.
Marxist-Leninist-Bidenist clap trap. Who has provided the equipment, ships, planes, etc etc. to provide the standard of living for everyone.
The problem is that too many majors in sociology have no idea how things are made and distributed. Marx, Lenin, Mao, Che, etc. etc. never said anything about inventory management so to the woke this are issues that are not relevant.
The discussion of an aging problem is timely.
A starting salary of $18-20 an hour at KFC for someone with no experience is not bad. STEM degrees pay well.
Those reading who have been battered and slapped with nonstop missives that we’re all going to die if globalism actors find their grift spigot turned off, have faith and prepare for the joy of learning that your country is capable of providing more than you can imagine.
The real dangers are CCP infiltration, compromised elections, CCP goal to genocide Americans, take America’s breadbasket by buying its land, take it to feed its own hungry population before that population throws them out.
The CCP has captured the bulk of the American elite. Their names and faces are documented. These are the domestic enemies that Americans need to take down.
“the foundations of Permanent Global Growth crumble into dust”
And if global growth falters, then all the fiat currencies and social welfare programs they are based on also falter, since they require constant increases in production in order to offset the inflation from money printing.
It’s not just since COVID. Wages have been stagnant for decades before COVID.
“Who has provided the equipment, ships, planes, etc etc. to provide the standard of living for everyone.”
Except they haven’t provided the standard of living that people expect them to. If they had, then wages wouldn’t have stagnated for the last 40 years.
And if they won’t keep up their end of the bargain, then the masses aren’t obligated to keep up their end either.
“A starting salary of $18-20 an hour at KFC for someone with no experience is not bad”
Not bad until inflation hits, and we’re already beyond that point.
Yes, but people worked hard then. The stagnant wages were result of jobs going to China!
Now, people just refuse to work hard!
In Huxley's Brave New World he imagined a world with a constant population, but in order for his system to work everyone had to buy more and more stuff. So even he couldn't imagine a system working with a constant demand for products.
It used to be that stocks had value because they returned a dividend. Then we were told that stocks from companies that didn't return dividends could be valuable just because the price of the stock would certainly go up. And the reason the stock values would go up is because they would sell more and more stuff.
But what if there aren't more people to buy more stuff? Or what if the people that are around are aging and don't want to buy as much stuff?
If you can stand it, watch an hour of broadcast TV. You will see that most of the commercials aimed at getting young people to throw their money at new cars, clothes, etc. have been replaced by commercials aimed at getting old people to buy more drugs. That will keep the economy as a whole going for a bit longer, but that won't help the automotive or fashion industries.
Been prepared for it for a long time, it was obvious where we were headed long ago.
“Wages have been stagnant for decades before COVID.”
Yet smart, hard-working people have done well. 37% of American homes have no debt against them, the highest percentage ever.
“watch an hour of broadcast TV.”
I call it Nigerian TV.
If you watch an hour of ads you will figure out why....
The economy has split into two tiers—and the difference between the tiers has been getting wider and wider.
That is classic third world economics.
We are there. Now.
“The economy has split into two tiers—and the difference between the tiers has been getting wider and wider.”
That’s correct, but the poverty level is still 14%, same as 75 years ago. The percentage of relatively wealthy people is what has grown while the so-called middle class has shrunk as many of them have become more wealthy. I know quite a few well-off who never went to or completed college. Opportunities are more varied and easier to take advantage of then ever.
The sad part is so few go after them.
This excellent writer, shares his reality and maybe how to “Just exist in today’s world!”:
“As I’ve often discussed here over the years, opting out is the best strategy when things fall apart. Trying to maximize your self-exploitation leads to burnout. The decision to abandon self-exploitation in service of increasing the wealth of the already-rich opens the door to Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.”
Some of our direct DNA relatives are doing what this writer suggests or are preparing to do it. One of our DILs quit her 20+ year job and is on a new career trail. Her spouse, one of our sons, just resigned from a 20+ year career as his career since Covid consumed more of his so called time. He will not be looking for a new job/career until next year. They have zero kids left to get through college or a good trade school.
We have several young relatives who are within one child of having a college student costing an arm and a leg.
A relative new RN relative has zero problems working 3 night shifts per week and getting a full week’s salary. In a week she may be the RN charge nurse in the ER, ICU and cardiac unit. Her supervisor has told the hospital Adm. pukes to leave her alone as she can walk out the door and do a traveling RN gig at more money and all expenses paid.
A grand daughter of a friend is an new RN with 3 years of EMT, and works ER 3 evenings a week and 2 evenings as a bar tender.
This week, she is mountain climbing somewhere. She has informed her current employers, no B$ and no extra hours/days. She plans to take at least a week of paid vacation per quarter. No arguments.
There will be a lot semi retirement and just new work gigs for many relatives and friends next year.
The poverty level is a confusing stat given all the “entitlement” programs and “benefits”—the number that means more to me is the percentage of people who have three months worth of expenses in liquid cash (including retirement savings if needed).
That number is about half the population.
You keep acting like people are being held back when the truth is... most people hold themselves back.
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