RuZZian Tank losses RunningTotal: 1420
November 2022 – 1
October 2022 – 212
September 2022 - 217
August 2022 – 74
July 2022 – 108
June 2022 – 67
May 2022 – 148
April 2022 – 243
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 350
RuZZian Artillery losses Running Total: 380
November 2022 – 1
October 2022 – 64
September 2022 - 73
August 2022 – 21
July 2022 – 21
June 2022 – 18
May 2022 – 20
April 2022 – 52
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110
ORYX updating sporadically for the next few days.
The invasion of Ukraine and the cruel and disastrous war will almost certainly end in defeat for Russia. It is only a matter of time. The loss will cause severe consequences that can cause the fall of Putin’s regime and even lead to a total collapse of the Russian Federation. Disputes have already emerged among Russian elites on the background of defeats on the battlefield in Ukraine, unpopular mobilization, harsh economic sanctions by the West and further isolation of Russia on the international scene.Further successes of the Ukrainian army, backed by Western weapons supplies, will only intensify internal conflicts in Russia. On the other hand, the embargo on Russian oil, which comes into force in December, will impact the Russian economy even more. All of that will lead to one of the two most probable scenarios – state collapse and disintegration or a coup against Putin.
I wonder how much equipment is remaining with the Russian military? That’s how Ukraine has been counted, Russia should be counted the same way!
1,402 killed russian officers as of 1 November!
Captain Крюков Дмитрий Михайлович (Kryukov Dmitry Mikhailovich), company commander of the 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment was killed in Ukraine.
Airborne Captain Лиджиев Г. Р. (Lidzhiev G. R.) from the 56th Guards Air Assault Regiment was killed in Ukraine.
Airborne Lieutenant Кутявин Михаил (Kutyavin Mikhail), a platoon commander from the 51st Airborne Regiment, 106th Airborne Division, Tula, was killed in Ukraine on 18 October.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Nov 3, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named War in Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... )
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
———————————————————————————————————————
Extra:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Russian Flag Removal In Kherson City Is A Trap Kyiv Says <——
There are indications that Russia may be abandoning Kherson City, but Ukraine says they are digging in for a long fight.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-flag-removal-in-kherson-city-is-a-trap-kyiv-says
Excerpt:
“The removal of the Russian flag in Kherson is an informational stuffing to lure the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” said Humeniuk. “In fact, the military of the Russian Federation create borders around the city, prepare for street battles and settle under the guise of civilians in private houses of Kherson residents. The Russian army is looking for tactics to save face.” Russian forces are not planning a quick withdrawal from Kherson City, despite trying to display outward appearances that they might, the Ukrainian intelligence source said.
“The most trained and most capable Russian units are currently in Kherson,” he said. “A large share of them are from airborne troops of the Russian Federation, Russian special operation forces and the naval infantry, so the most capable units that Russia has. Those units form the backbone of the grouping and it’s being strengthened by the mobilized personnel also.”
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary:
No major changes.
Key areas:
- Oskil river area: no changes.
- North Donbass area: no changes.
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
———————————————————————————————————————
••
General Strategic Situation:
••China:
Let’s start with some somewhat unusual area: China, it looks like its very far from Ukraine, but as those who are long-term viewers they all know that its all interconnected world; there is no separation, its one big one big world, where everything is extremely interconnected.
There is a lot of confusion about this Zero Covid Policy that’s happening in China, its blamed on the disruption in the supply, and China will lift it very soon.
The market two days ago got super excited; the US stock market, specifically because its the largest one, was trading up. The reality of the Zero Covid Policy is probably not going to go away anytime soon. The reason for that is because Zero Covid Policy is just euphemism; the real goal: control of the population and total control of population, and its a tool when you prepare for a war, you need a fully controlled population, and that’s another clue China is preparing for eventual invasion of Taiwan. (Edit: total population control and economic stress test in preparation for war is all the entire covid outbreak has ever been about.)
They need to control population inside of the country, and using this as excuse, allows them to do whatever is needed without declaring formal military martial law, this is a substitute for that, and it doesn’t look bad - it just looks like super caring about the population and that’s why, and on international scene that doesn’t look like aggressive actions are being prepared.
Another thing that China did is the Xi Jinping met with the Vietnamese president, and they settled their disagreements, because both countries are enemies, in the past there was even war between China and Vietnam, even though both are communist countries.
However, China cleverly decided to not to have enemy on its borders when they are focused on attacking some other countries; they want peace on their flanks and made sure that nothing bad happens out of that area. Xi Jinping came there to meet with Vietnamese; they came to an agreement; they had some disputes about the Spratly and Paracel islands: China probably gave some concessions, and ensured neutrality or even supportive stance from Vietnam in the potential conflict. China is slowly making moves in preparation that most people, most observers don’t catch.
••Chinese Real Estate:
There are new statistics on real estate sales in China: of the 100 largest real estate developers - which probably control 80% of the market - they dropped year to date for the 10 months since January through October included, they fell 44% year over year, relative to 2021.
There is a tremendous economic implosion happening inside of China that most outsiders don’t catch, but its almost like a nuclear bomb is blowing up. Because China is quite insulated, its still quite insulated, especially from the West, its quite not well understood as what it truly is. There is an internal implosion, and real estate is one of the largest sectors of the Chinese economy.
Real estate is roughly 30% of the GDP there, and government revenues dropped significantly close to US$1 trillion which is 18% of the Chinese budget at all levels, and that’s happening because the sale of the real estate is tanking in China.
There is a huge desire and probably easier solution is to channel all of this negative energy that’s building up inside of China towards towards Taiwan, because China has a history of civil wars, internal conflicts that destroy the country. The leadership there is extremely cognizant of that and extremely very of that like past, so for them its easier to go the path of Taiwan, and some people say it may say China is not prepared it is not prepared nobody is ever 100% prepared for anything. It’s more like the situation forces them to go there, whether prepared or not, it doesn’t matter.
(Edit: not any longer, as Xi has achieved absolute control over the entire Chinese population; no rebellion is now possible. Attacking Taiwan now would be an ego/legacy thing, not a necessity. The only thing that would definitely cause a rebellion is an invasion of Taiwan and the horrendous troop losses it would create.)
••China & Germany:
Then related to China is a German Chancellor or Prime Minister, Schultz is visiting China with German business. There were rumors before the Schultz was elected that he is in China’s pocket, and unfortunately, those rumors are being validated and verified. Recently he pushed the sale of the Port of Hamburg - which is the sea gateway or ocean gateway to Germany - to the Chinese shipping company, COSCO. Pretty much the entire government is opposed to it, and he single-handedly pushed the deal, creating actually split within his own government. That was the first confirmation.
Now there’s another one: despite all of the criticism inside and outside, he decided to go to China to meet with Xi Jinping. I don’t know what he hopes to achieve, but its a desperation move, thinking imploding China will provide market for German goods, and Germany does have a terrible trade balance, currently. (Edit: its now at 3.7 billion which was last seen in the late 90s, early 2000s.)
Germany was super profitable, and now its almost close to zero. This means the German economy is suffering mightily, and Schultz is desperate, and he goes to China, thinking he’s gonna be able to save the German economy, which is not gonna happen, because the Chinese business model, where there are consumers who move up by buying German cars, is broken, and the real estate is clear evidence of that.
Unfortunately, he’s so desperate, he’s so poor because he’s coming there because the German automakers force him to go there, but its not gonna solve German’s industry problem which Germany as a country also has broken business model, and that needs to be re-figured out. I would say pretty much every country in the world, the business model is broken, including US as well; its not immune to that either.
He is creating tension within the European Union because French President wanted to go there with him, but he said, ‘no I’m just gonna go alone.’ There are quite a few of problems coming out of that, not to mention, if you really think look at German trade, China is actually net negative for Germany as a trade partner; the largest export market is actually US for Germany.
The Chinese market is where Germany is losing money; so he goes to the place where Germany losing money thinking to somehow make money there in a place that itself is imploding - not very wise strategy, to say the least.
(Edit: For a clearer and more in depth explanation of the real estate market collapse in China, see Laowy86 and SerpentZA on YouTube.)
••The Gain Deal:
Russia said that it has returned to the existing grain deal, signed in early July for four months and would expire on November 18. What Russia said is, ‘ unblock our export of our grains and fertilizer, or we’re not going to continue this deal going forward.’ That’s what I’ve been explaining in past videos, now Russia directly came out and said unblock our exports or else. The chances that Russian exports are going to be unblocked are not that great; I don’t know anything is possible. I’m not saying its a toss of a coin where its gonna fall, but there’s a good chance they’re not gonna get unblocked, and then Russia will finally kill will not renew this grain deal, which is going to be a big blow for Ukraine, but it is what it is.
••Russia & UK:
UK introduced crude oil price ceiling on Russian crude. and the way its done is by threatening to withdraw marine insurance. all of these vessels with whatever commodities they carry they must have marine insurance. What the UK is saying is, ‘ Russia has to sell to sell oil at the prices we dictate, or we gonna withdraw marine insurance.
Now, hopefully, you understand why, when I probably reported about a month ago, maybe a little bit even more months and a half, Russia was buying second hand ships on the black market; they already knew this was coming, and they were preparing to create ghost or black market ships where they’re just gonna sail without any insurance, controlled by Russian government. Russian government doesn’t care, they’re gonna take the risk. They’re gonna continue selling crude oil to India, China, whatever, whoever wants to buy it, probably Turkey as well.
How much crude can be gone from the market or banned from the market? I mentioned yesterday its one million barrels per day - there are some estimates that it could be as high as 3 million. That’s a large number: Russia produces about 10.7 million barrels per day, just for the reference. UK is or US producers 12 roughly 12 million barrels per day.
Its a large number that could be gone from the market and the prices for for crude and then all of the products that made out of it are probably go quite high, which again is going to create huge social tensions in Europe, especially in in US as well & around the Western world, Japan also. Instead of solving the problem, its gonna aggravate problems that are inside of the Western nations themselves.
••Moldova:
There are large protests against the current government, because of the high prices for natural gasoline, diesel and people simply too poor to afford it, and they have no choice - similar things are happening in Czech Republic, even though its much richer country relative to Moldova, but it still creates tension everywhere, and it may backfire in amazing ways.
••Ukraine Energy System
The energy distribution system: things were stabilized at this low level where people have controlled blackouts and very random I wanted to say for how long and its fluctuates from day to day. They issued formal schedules for how long: from what time to what time, but those schedules don’t work its chaotic, really random, there is no good predictable pattern or anything, so its extremely difficult to handle; it could be like from five six hours to eight hours per day.
With the industrial situation is essentially much worse, and there’s no ability to do any business at this point in Ukraine. The system has been stabilized at an extremely low level, literally on the edge, and its at the mercy of the Russian side as to whether to finish it off completely or allow it to function.
••North Luhansk’:
Things here are somewhat active. Russian troops are trying to counter-attack and eliminate all of the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern side of a tiny river - its almost like a stream, but nevertheless, it is swampy, not even swampy, but like a very wide riverbed. It even though its almost like a stream, its poses a significant hurdle to overcome, and so Russian troops are trying to keep Ukrainian side at the bay.
Ukrainian side still tries to continue attacks that are not successful. The problem is that Russian troops are getting replenished; there are more soldiers and so ability to defend increases significantly.
The lack of skills on Ukrainian side: even though there are tools at at Ukraine’s disposal that allow to break Russian defenses if Ukraine chooses to make this area the most important, where they want to succeed, there are tools that would allow them to destroy Russian defenses and to achieve it. It is going to be much harder right now, relative to months ago, but its still possible, but unfortunately there is a lack of skills.
I’ve been on the Uke side for the whole war. Please watch this - now I see why there is Russian call for de- Nazification. This video is from the last few days - WWII Wermacht insignia on the Uke vehicle.
WTF??????
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRxJDsk4/
@Tendar
1h
Russian occupation in Kherson City has declared a 24h curfew.
@WarMonitor3
21h
Russian paratrooper divisions and regiments still on the Kherson frontline:
7th Airborne Division
247th and 108th Airborne Regiments
@ChuckPfarrer
3h
“BURN RATE: UKR sources report that RU troop losses in the last six days amount to nearly 5,000 killed, and thousands more wounded.”
I hesitate to call it human wave attacks, because they have vehicles and Artillery support, but there is some similarity in the new tactics that Russian forces in the East have adopted, of just flooding the zone with bodies, at huge cost of their lives.
This approach, and the withdrawal around Kherson, are the hallmarks of the Surovikin era. One or both of them will likely get him fired before Christmas. Start warming up the new guy.
"STEALTHY & DEADLY: Sources report that Poland will help UKR adapt its Su-24 strike fighters to carry NATO ‘Stormshdow' missiles. Stealthy, transonic Stormshadows will give Ukraine a precision deep-strike capability in contested air defense environments." https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/11/01/storm-shadow-deep-strike-missile-on-ukrainian-supersonic-fencer/
