The invasion of Ukraine and the cruel and disastrous war will almost certainly end in defeat for Russia. It is only a matter of time. The loss will cause severe consequences that can cause the fall of Putin’s regime and even lead to a total collapse of the Russian Federation. Disputes have already emerged among Russian elites on the background of defeats on the battlefield in Ukraine, unpopular mobilization, harsh economic sanctions by the West and further isolation of Russia on the international scene.Further successes of the Ukrainian army, backed by Western weapons supplies, will only intensify internal conflicts in Russia. On the other hand, the embargo on Russian oil, which comes into force in December, will impact the Russian economy even more. All of that will lead to one of the two most probable scenarios – state collapse and disintegration or a coup against Putin.
1-3 million barrels off the market will not help the West either.
The election next week in the USA will have major consequences for Ukraine. The republicans are likely to win by a landslide. When they take control of the US congress next year—they won’t be interested in funding the Ukraine.
The best that can be hoped for from the USA is that in December—the biden administration and the current congress will allocate enough funding to last through 2023.
Beyond that, europe will have to pick up the slack. Will that happen? We’ll see. Personally I’d like to see Norway pitch in some cash from their sovereign wealth fund.