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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21
The Institute for the Study of War ^ | October 21, 2022 | Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

Posted on 10/22/2022 5:04:26 PM PDT by Widget Jr

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Due to news blackouts on both sides and cooperation by social media on the ground, getting reliable information out of the Kherson area is difficult and delayed. This is expected given how important this area is in the conflict.

My 2¢ and half guesses:

What this shows is, there is in fact a Russia withdrawal from Kherson, and their hold on the area is at risk.

The operation Ukraine is conducting in Kherson is a seige, not a dramatic "Thunder Run". Ukraine largely cut off the Russian army in Kherson, then worked to take out bridges and resupply, and waited. Russia can not hold as much as they want as their supplies are all getting depleted. In response they are getting their civilans out and trying to build up stronger defensable positions to cover the withdrawal and hold out.

The fighthing in Kherson is going at a snail's pace for both sides. When looking at miltary operations for the last 30 years like Desert Storm, this is not what Western audiences following the news think a miltary operation looks like. For Ukraine, they want to get Kherson intact. For Russia, they want to lose as little as possible and drag it out as long as possible. Both sides are going slow by necessity.

1 posted on 10/22/2022 5:04:26 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: Widget Jr

A pretty good analysis. This is a return to positional warfare.


2 posted on 10/22/2022 5:07:34 PM PDT by Tallguy
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To: Widget Jr
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/06/12/a-case-study-in-american-propaganda/

The second thing you may not be aware of is how ideological the academic-sounding Institute for the Study of War is. It has neoconservative roots and is run and staffed by pretty extreme hawks. Over the years it has gotten funding from various corners of the arms industry—General Dynamics, Raytheon, lesser known defense contractors, and big companies, like General Motors, that aren’t known as defense contractors but do get Pentagon contracts.

3 posted on 10/22/2022 5:09:11 PM PDT by Kazan
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To: Widget Jr

The assessment is absolute BS. Ukies are getting a royal beatdown in the north of Kherson region, and are currently evacuating Nikolayev.
I can’t exclude that the Russian forces are going to leave Kherson, but that if it is going to be unreasonable to hold to it, like if the Ukies are to finally blow the dam.


4 posted on 10/22/2022 5:14:46 PM PDT by NorseViking
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To: Widget Jr

The ISW’s “analysis” leaves much to be desired. My assessment (from looking at information sources from BOTH sides - I know, that’s a novel concept here)) is that the Russians are having “non-essential” civilians evacuate from the right bank of the river. That way they won’t have to resupply the civilians’ needs for survival. They’ll be able to focus solely on the logistics needed to support their military forces there. And they are substantially increasing their forces there.


5 posted on 10/22/2022 5:17:55 PM PDT by House Atreides (I’m now ULTRA-MAGA-PRO-MAX)
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To: Kazan

What is your arms industry free opinion? Is russia pulling out of Kherson or not?


6 posted on 10/22/2022 5:19:27 PM PDT by Farmerbob
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To: Kazan; cranked
#3. https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/quincy-institute-for-responsible-statecraft/

"The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft is a non-interventionist foreign policy advocacy organization founded in 2019 with support from two major political donors, liberal George Soros and libertarian Charles Koch."

And you complain about what other people post here? 🤣😂🤣😂

7 posted on 10/22/2022 5:23:56 PM PDT by Widget Jr (🇺🇦 Sláva Ukrayíni 🇺🇦 - Just say no to CCCP 2.0)
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To: All

What is this institutes track record ?


8 posted on 10/22/2022 5:28:29 PM PDT by escapefromboston (Free Chauvin)
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To: Widget Jr

Nice catch.


9 posted on 10/22/2022 5:31:02 PM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: Widget Jr
"Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun."

MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, PLOP, PLOP, PLOP... BOOOOOOL-SHEEEEEEETTTT...

Russians HAVE NOT withdrawn from Kherson. They have EVACUATED CIVILIANS, i.e. cleared the decks for action. Hohos need to overthrow the pervocracy in Kiev and save themselves from this nato/neocon meat-grinding process wshich is basically just using theRussian military to reduce the male population of Hohostan ffor the glory of "Gaia"...

10 posted on 10/22/2022 5:32:02 PM PDT by ganeemead
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To: Widget Jr

The Russians and their allies wouldn’t be complaining about Russia being boxed in, and hinting at the possible use of nuclear weapons, if the conventional war was going well.


11 posted on 10/22/2022 5:34:01 PM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: ganeemead
which is basically just using the Russian military to reduce the male population of Hohostan for the glory of "Gaia"...

Or alternatively, using the Ukrainian military to massively degrade the Russian military.

12 posted on 10/22/2022 5:39:02 PM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: Bruce Campbells Chin

Which country’s infrastructure is being turned to rubble on a daily basis? Russis or Ukraine?

I rest my case.

The nuclear threat is simply a warning to neocons in USA to not get too frisky in Ukraine.


13 posted on 10/22/2022 5:40:17 PM PDT by entropy12
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To: entropy12
The nuclear threat is simply a warning to neocons in USA to not get too frisky in Ukraine.

And by that you mean NATO troops?

14 posted on 10/22/2022 5:44:11 PM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: NorseViking

Given the news blackout from both sides, what is the source of your information?


15 posted on 10/22/2022 5:44:12 PM PDT by Petrosius
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To: entropy12

Well duh. Putin can’t steal Ukraine so he wants to destroy it. There is nothing exceptional about that and in fact shows how weak the KGB corporal is. Russia’s army of drunken serfs is on the run and swim (LOL). Putin is now reduced to bombing women and children in the usual Russian way. I rest my case.


16 posted on 10/22/2022 5:45:58 PM PDT by lodi90
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To: Widget Jr

The Institute For Grifting On War


17 posted on 10/22/2022 5:48:58 PM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: Petrosius

No black out from the both sides. It is that the reporting from the Russian perspective is banned and there is only anti-intellectual pervasive Ukrainian propaganda allowed, like the Russians are shelling themselves and running away everywhere.
Install Telegram, where are numerous channels, many of them biased to one side or another but that is how you get the idea of what is going on in our days by doing an analysis.


18 posted on 10/22/2022 5:50:10 PM PDT by NorseViking
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To: entropy12

So there was a nuclear threat? That is what I remember but your guys kept claiming putin never threatened a nuclear strike.


19 posted on 10/22/2022 5:51:14 PM PDT by Farmerbob
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To: entropy12
Which country’s infrastructure is being turned to rubble on a daily basis? Russis or Ukraine?

Yes, it is true Ukraine's infrastructure has been damaged. But it also is true that Russia has suffered losses in men and equipment (and ships...) far greater than they ever expected, and more than their regular forces could handle. That's why they've had to mobilize a bunch of guys who haven't touched a gun in decades.

20 posted on 10/22/2022 5:51:58 PM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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