Posted on 10/04/2022 7:00:31 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
RuZZian Tank losses RunningTotal: 1250
October 2022 – 39
September 2022 - 217
August 2022 – 74
July 2022 – 108
June 2022 – 67
May 2022 – 148
April 2022 – 243
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 350
RuZZian Artillery losses Running Total: 319
October 2022 – 4
September 2022 - 73
August 2022 – 21
July 2022 – 21
June 2022 – 18
May 2022 – 20
April 2022 – 52
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110
To quote marcusmaximus:
“Total Northern Kherson front collapse for Putin last night. Just wow.’
“’ Situation in the northern part of #Kherson Oblast, Oct 04 13:30 - UA liberated Davydiv Brid, Starosillya, Novopetrivka, Dudchany - UA continue to push south towards Nova Kakhovka, RU unable to stop the advance atm”
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577265181679570945
“Rybar now admitting RUS is withdrawing from entire northern (KHER SOON) sector.”
https://twitter.com/nik0p0l5/status/1577222438961631232
“Ukrainian forces striking a Russian IFV likely with a German SMArt 155 artillery shell.”
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1577283465061421056
“A Russian channel gives 3 reasons why Russian forces are retreating in Kherson: 1) A lack of rotation/exhaustion (he mentions the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade) 2) Because of a lack of infantry, Russian forces stay in strongpoints in towns. Ukrainian forces push between them.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577209610275954688
“As ISW has previously reported, the Russian groupings in northern Kherson Oblast and on the Lyman front were largely comprised of units that had been regarded as among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces before the war.[3] Elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army reportedly withdrew from Lyman to rear positions near Kreminna before October 2.[4] Russian sources previously reported that elements of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), especially the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, are active in Kherson Oblast.[5] Both the 144th Motorized Rifle Division and the 76th Guards Air Assault Division were previously lauded as some of Russia’s most elite forces, and their apparent failures to hold territory against major Ukrainian counter-offensive actions is consistent with ISW’s previous assessment that even the most elite Russian military forces are becoming increasingly degraded as the war continues. “
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-3
“Girkin is worried about Svatove, says the highway between it and Rubizhne might have already been penetrated. This puts at risk the garrisons of both Svatove, and Rubizhne-Kreminna.”
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1577211443845685248
“z-nazi attack near Pavlovka, Donetsk region, as a result of which 2 T-80BVM , 4 fuel trucks and thrown 2 BMP-3 ”
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1577294818811723777
“Ukrainian sniper takes out a Russian infantry from a distance of 550m.”
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1576926309758177280
“The Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade targeting Russian vehicle and infantrymen at the Eastern front.”
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1576838129704927232
“A Russian channel gives 3 reasons why Russian forces are retreating in Kherson: 1) A lack of rotation/exhaustion (he mentions the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade) 2) Because of a lack of infantry, Russian forces stay in strongpoints in towns. Ukrainian forces push between them.”
///////
these are only small parts of the reason. what we’re seeing is that the ukes have learned to coordinate a whole lot of military parts in the battlespace.
this is the latest—they have learned how to jam russian communications. so the troops on the front lines are cut off from rear area commanders. that creates an impossible situation for the front line soldiers. they will break fast without orders.
imho the uke demand for 200 mile range missles will wane after they have punched south to melitopol.
the ukes can take back much of their territory faster than most realize because they have learned the modern way of war. and the russians have learned nothing.
what I don’t like about this —is that the natural result of this war will be the complete destabilization of russia.
those guys don’t have an orderly way to change. they just go from one ossified state to another. in between those two ossified states are terrible disorder.
now that they have 7000 nukes —this is an incredibly dangerous situation for the whole world. and its most dangerous to the ukes.
I expect Russia to step up bombing civilian infrastructure, power generation, dams, etc. to punish the Ukrainian people.
Russia wants the land & resources, not the humans.
Sniper used a night scope.
“More Russians Flee Than Join Putin’s Army After War Call-Up”
“Shoigu says 200,000 have been conscripted since Sept. 21 order”
“Data show close to 400,000 Russians went to nearby states”
“and its most dangerous to the ukes.”
I read an analysis that a nuke attack on Kiev would kill more RuZZians than Ukrainians.
The nuclear fallout will hit Belgorad RuZZia which has a population of 1.5 million.
Punched south to Melitopol... The front north of Melitopol has been relatively quiet for quite some time. I also expect a punch fairly soon aimed right at Melitopol and possibly aiming for the Azov coast.
Conversation of "LPR" troops who supposed to be abandoned at Drobysheve to cover the retreat of the Russians
https://sonar21.com/premonitions-by-helmholtz-smith/
Weariness is visible – three recent American polls show a desire for diplomacy, “less concern” and that Ukraine doesn’t make the list. I’m reminded of a comment by Gonzalo Lira that Russia should just make the war boring to Americans.
The economic effects of the boomeranging sanctions are inexorably tightening in Europe. We’re now hearing about possible bank collapses and reading cheerful pieces on how to keep mold out of cold damp houses. With Nordstream out of contention. no improvement is visible. Time is on Russia’s side. At some point the European population will have had enough. Protests are growing. The overwhelming rejection in the German parliament of increased support for Ukraine points this way.
America is better off but is also feeling the boomerang. Inflation is rising and what will happen to gasoline prices (a huge concern) when they stop draining the Strategic Oil Reserve? And if China dumps a lot of US currency the situation will get worse.
WESTERN ARMS RUNNING OUT
The West is running out of arms to send Ukraine. A CNBC report speaks of America being out of 155mm guns and ammunition (manufacturers are being sought); it has already sent ten years’ production of Javelins! The latest HIMARS “sent” haven’t been built yet.
Similar stories from Europe. The available stock of ex-Soviet equipment is gone – 28 (“modernized” 20 years ago) T55 tanks scrounged from Slovenia are the latest “wonder weapon”.
The West does not have the industrial capacity to sustain modern war. Everything that has been sent to Ukraine so far has been from existing stocks. Western militaries must either start cannibalizing their standing armies or stop. Then what? Western weapons made the September offensive possible.
###
PREMONITIONS OF WHAT?
In short, the Western plan is not working. The sanctions cost the West more, it’s running out of weapons to send and there are signs of softening. If Moscow’s plan was to move slowly and wait them out, then it’s working.
One should not rule out the possibility of a negotiated settlement and it may be that NATO realizes in time that it has painted itself into a corner from which that is the only exit. But it’s hard to see, given all the hyperbole, how the West’s present rulers could admit to such an enormous failure. Electoral replacement, while happening, is too slow. And why would Moscow ever trust anything the West says? A unilateral surrender by Kiev is possible but the only way I could see it is if Zelensky were overthrown. Therefore I rate a negotiated ending as not impossible at the moment but of very low probability. But time is on Russia’s side and October’s improbability may be March’s desperate desire.
More likely to me is, to use a World War II analogy, that now that Kiev’s Operation Citadel in the Kursk Salient is petering out, it’s time for a really powerful mechanized offensive accompanied by strikes deep in the rear with no holding back. One must remember that Putin said they hadn’t really started – I think we’re about to see what he meant. And sooner, I would guess, rather than later. I can’t imagine that anyone in Moscow wants this thing still going on next February.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.