Replies

Reality:

https://sonar21.com/premonitions-by-helmholtz-smith/

Weariness is visible – three recent American polls show a desire for diplomacy, “less concern” and that Ukraine doesn’t make the list. I’m reminded of a comment by Gonzalo Lira that Russia should just make the war boring to Americans.

The economic effects of the boomeranging sanctions are inexorably tightening in Europe. We’re now hearing about possible bank collapses and reading cheerful pieces on how to keep mold out of cold damp houses. With Nordstream out of contention. no improvement is visible. Time is on Russia’s side. At some point the European population will have had enough. Protests are growing. The overwhelming rejection in the German parliament of increased support for Ukraine points this way.

America is better off but is also feeling the boomerang. Inflation is rising and what will happen to gasoline prices (a huge concern) when they stop draining the Strategic Oil Reserve? And if China dumps a lot of US currency the situation will get worse.

WESTERN ARMS RUNNING OUT

The West is running out of arms to send Ukraine. A CNBC report speaks of America being out of 155mm guns and ammunition (manufacturers are being sought); it has already sent ten years’ production of Javelins! The latest HIMARS “sent” haven’t been built yet.

Similar stories from Europe. The available stock of ex-Soviet equipment is gone – 28 (“modernized” 20 years ago) T55 tanks scrounged from Slovenia are the latest “wonder weapon”.

The West does not have the industrial capacity to sustain modern war. Everything that has been sent to Ukraine so far has been from existing stocks. Western militaries must either start cannibalizing their standing armies or stop. Then what? Western weapons made the September offensive possible.

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PREMONITIONS OF WHAT?

In short, the Western plan is not working. The sanctions cost the West more, it’s running out of weapons to send and there are signs of softening. If Moscow’s plan was to move slowly and wait them out, then it’s working.

One should not rule out the possibility of a negotiated settlement and it may be that NATO realizes in time that it has painted itself into a corner from which that is the only exit. But it’s hard to see, given all the hyperbole, how the West’s present rulers could admit to such an enormous failure. Electoral replacement, while happening, is too slow. And why would Moscow ever trust anything the West says? A unilateral surrender by Kiev is possible but the only way I could see it is if Zelensky were overthrown. Therefore I rate a negotiated ending as not impossible at the moment but of very low probability. But time is on Russia’s side and October’s improbability may be March’s desperate desire.

More likely to me is, to use a World War II analogy, that now that Kiev’s Operation Citadel in the Kursk Salient is petering out, it’s time for a really powerful mechanized offensive accompanied by strikes deep in the rear with no holding back. One must remember that Putin said they hadn’t really started – I think we’re about to see what he meant. And sooner, I would guess, rather than later. I can’t imagine that anyone in Moscow wants this thing still going on next February.

Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Oct 3, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••denotes transcribed dialogue.

Current to date and past MAPS:
https://militaryland.net/

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Extras:
Ukraine Situation Report: Breakthrough In Kherson
Ukrainian flags are being raised in once Russian-occupied towns in the south as Kyiv’s forces push toward the heart of Kherson.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-breakthrough-in-kherson

—
Russia’s “Nuclear Train” Is Not Necessarily What The Media Is Portraying It To Be
The rail-bound armored vehicles may be tied to Russia’s nuclear forces, but they could easily have more mundane uses.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russias-nuclear-train-is-not-necessarily-what-the-media-is-portraying-it-to-be

—
Turkey Launches 326-Foot Warship For Ukraine, Won’t Arrive Until 2024
It is unclear at the moment how the Ada-class corvette Hetman Ivan Mazepa, part of a $256 million, two-ship deal, will be armed.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/turkey-launches-300-foot-warship-for-ukraine-wont-arrive-until-2024

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Summary:
Ukrainian troops were stopped in Dudchany as retreating Russian troops blew up bridge/dam over the flooded ridge in Dudchany.
Ukrainian troops continued advance between Svatove and Kreminna and prevented Russian side from establishing new frontline there.

Key areas:
- Oskil river area:
Ukrainian troops gained control of the road from Svatove to Kreminna in few places, thereby preventing Russian troops from re-establishing new frontline.
The fight is going on in village Krasnorichenske.
Ukrainian mobile groups infiltrate into Russian-controlled territories and ambush retreating Russian units.

- North Donbass area: no changes.
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.

- Kherson bridgehead:
Ukrainian troops were stopped by the blown bridge in Dudchany.
Russian command brought in 234the Regiment of the 76th Airborne Division to stop Ukrainian advance

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••Military Situation:

North Luhansk’
This is one of the places where things are happening these days; what is happening is Russian troops are pulling out of Borova salient. They are here along this road row that goes from Kupyansk to Kreminna to Serverodonetsk. Based on our information Ukrainian troops still stuck at Kuzemivka.

This is where Russian troops are trying to build new the front line here west of Svatove; the units here on the eastern side of the river. They are also pulling more behind the road to the eastern side of this river that goes to Svatove. The key point is there is no contiguous frontline here. The Russian Military Administration in Svatove issued an announcement asking everyone to evacuate who can in 72 hours.

Apparently Ukrainian reconnaissance and commando units are actively operating on that road. Russian troops will not be able to build the front line on the road. UA reconnaissance and commando units actually managed to attack the village of Krasnorichens’ke. Based on unconfirmed reports is in Ukrainian hands.

They established a bridgehead on the eastern side of the river that goes through from Svatove to Kreminna. This means that Russian troops will not be able to establish a formal frontline again; and that’s why the evacuation requests from Russian Military Administration in Svatove. Everyone who collaborated with Russian Military Administration, most of them typically flee.

The next stop is the large logistical hub at Starobil’s’k for all Russian troops, including those operating near Bakhmut. This is going to be one of the larger prizes so this point the the destiny of Svatove has been decided and there are simply not enough infantry in these Russian units; they are just remnants of this of those units you see on a map - they are not able to build contiguous front line on this 80 kilometers road.

These porous lines are why Ukrainian reconnaissance units are able to infiltrate, build bridgeheads, and then attack. The majority of the Ukrainian troops are not even facing Kreminna at this point. This is probably part of the problem in Ukrainian side is super slow, from the number of units there, this is really big concentration of forces. Even the 66th Brigade has been pulled to this southern section.
(Edit: UA - 66th, 25th, 71st, 81st, 79th, 95th, 93rd. To the north are UA - 80th, 3rd TB, 4th TB, 17th TB. Much further to the north is UA - 92nd.)

This tells us that Ukrainian command has big plans for the future here, and the point is not really storming Svatove-Starobil’s’k, the point is attacking to the southeast and one part will attack Starobil’s’k even if its not gonna be liberated right away, its will prevent it from being used as logistical hub, once Ukrainian troops approach somewhere close enough. Russian logistics will need to be rerouted through much longer distance, probably Bilovods’k could be another base.

Then the bigger move is probably going to be directed towards southeast, trying to create the of potential of a very uncomfortable situation and encirclement of Russian troops there. This is where Wagner mercenaries are operating in the Serverodonetsk-Rubizhne area. This will force the evacuation of that whole area, without terribly much fighting.

So far this is just a small step in establishing a tiny bridgehead, but Russian side does not have enough combat troops so the the new line will collapse, until reserve units will arrive in sufficient quantity. Again the big question is when will they arrive. So far Ukrainian troops are continuing to exploit this situation.

Pockets & Encirclement:
Something I would like to highlight is that its nearly impossible to encircle troops, unless the command allows that to happen. From Izyum-Luhansk’ Russian troops managed to escape; they lost a lot of equipment, they lost some of the soldiers, but the backbone, the majority of the units were successfully pulled out - even in last second.

With the loss of so much equipment as they fled, Russian troops are very low on heavy weapons and that’s another reason why Russian troops are not able to establish a firm frontline. Unless command decides to sacrifice those troops, in modern warfare from what we’re seeing, it is nearly impossible to catch troops in a circle and that’s probably one of the big takeaways from all of these experiences so far.

North Donbas:
front line things here are well as a broken record the same Wagner mercenary is continuing their attacks that are basically just pulling them deeper into the potential pocket and that’s the basic essence of all of this attacks nevertheless they continue doing it as you can see you know typical areas Solidar bahmoud the series south of no major changes here now let’s look at what’s going on on the

Central Donbas:
Who will replace 66th Brigade isn’t clear, potentially it could be one of the newer units that finished training in the UK or just a newly formed unit.

Kherson bridgehead:
Ukrainian troops breached Russian front line which was manned by very weak 80s Brigade with just two regular battalions and one reconnaissance battalions an extremely weak unit. They were advancing along the road pretty quickly to Dudchany. Russian troops finally managed to stop Ukrainian troops at a bridge/dam over a bay; they blew it up and that stopped the Ukrainian troops advance.

Then Russian command pulled one regiment from 76 Airborne Division and sent them to Dudchany. Russian troops control the southern portion of the Dudchany, while Ukrainians control the northern portion of the Dudchany.

The 76 AD is holding this Ukrainian advance on this bridgehead so far; they were pretty successful. They are three regiments: two regiments are probably put here from Kalynivs’ke to Davydiv Brid. Now that they have two regiments at Davydiv Brid, instead of three regiments - remains to be seen if they will be as successful as stemming Ukrainian advances on this bridgehead.

Its unclear what exact Ukrainian brigade attacking here could be 128th. As I mentioned this is the striking force: the four brigades because the two other ones that could be used, they are tied up along the highway from Mykolaiv to Kherson, so they probably will stay there. This is something like a maneuverable group that Ukrainian command can adjust and move around so this is it doesn’t look that there’s more sources on Ukrainian side so they just figure out the weakness on the Russian side.

Its unclear if Ukrainian troops will be will be able to advance further, because as discussed many times, the airborne units have a much stronger fighting spirit; they will probably fight tooth and nail, until they completely close to annihilation, then they will start retreating. At the same time the situation for Russian troops ammunition-wise becomes really desperate. On the negative side the ability of their artillery which this division is artillery regiment - 76th and 7th as well. What this really means that support is dwindling, not to mention, that they need to split support of the one or two regiments between two different areas.

I mean its not like you can like support with one regiment all of it, you have to split so and you are pretty desperate for ammunition, not mention that the artillery regiment is mostly 122mm guns; as far as I know, they don’t have 152mm guns.

This this creates difficult situations. There is high potential that Ukrainian forces can continue to advance. They will not be able to continue in Dudchany because that dam/bridge was destroyed, so they have to attack towards the Nova Kakhovka direction.

The Russian 126th Brigade is not terribly strong, so there is some opportunity. The way it could happen is that first Ukrainian command probably would would like to create either pocket out of all of this, or squeeze the Russian troops which probably is most likely. They will just flee and there won’t be any pocket because the distances here are pretty big, and Russian troops started to realize escaping is the right choice.

Then Russian command is also doing right thing from that perspective that preserving troops for the next fight is more important than standing the ground in a lost battle. However, once this is cleared out, it is guaranteed that next front line, straightened out front line is probably going to go from this Chkalove to the bay near Chervonyi Mayak, its a huge lake flooded by the Dnipro River when they created a dam.

The front line is probably going to go from Chkalove to Chervonyi Mayak. At that point, this whole area is going to be under attacks by artillery, and rocket strikes and everything, meaning multiple rocket launchers and I’m referring not just HIMARS, but more regular artillery units. It may be turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy or self-ignited reaction where Russian troops will be in a death spiral where they will be forced to withdraw and quickly withdraw, because once Ukrainian troop starts attacking, they will have artillery control over this area with regular artillery. It will be nearly impossible to evacuate; everybody realizes that, including Russian command.

They will try to quickly evacuate Russian troops to Nova Kakhovka. It will be interesting to see what happens to this dam. Hopefully, its not going to get blown up, because a huge amount of water will flash down and could create a huge disaster.

This is going to be very dangerous moment, in general; what’s going to happen there but it will trigger the death spiral once Ukrainian troops get there This whole bridgehead will be evacuated in pretty quick fashion. In the process, most of the equipment will be lost. Some of their manpower will be lost, but majority will be kept for the next next fight.

The way it works, its not going to be a straight line. This is not going to be happening in straight extrapolated line over time, but a small exponential function, from a time perspective. The loss of territory is going to go up exponentially for the Russian side pretty quickly, and this was probably the first step in that exponential function. The whole big picture of what’s going to happen is Russian troops are gonna lose most of North Luhansk.’ Maybe they’ll be able to keep an area north of Luhansk’ because that will be were the reserves come from. They will probably lose Kherson Bridgehead also.

The chances of some tactical nuclear strike are also going exponentially because Russian command will be just throwing a towel because they cannot win successfully with just regular conventional weapons, they may try something that’s unconventional to turn to to change the tide in the war.

Everybody probably realizes getting into this situation of higher probability of some like limited nuclear strike; at the same time the West has issuing very clear warnings not to do it, because that will involve direct involvement of the West in this whole situation. It remains to be seen if that is going to stop the Russians