“A Russian channel gives 3 reasons why Russian forces are retreating in Kherson: 1) A lack of rotation/exhaustion (he mentions the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade) 2) Because of a lack of infantry, Russian forces stay in strongpoints in towns. Ukrainian forces push between them.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577209610275954688
“As ISW has previously reported, the Russian groupings in northern Kherson Oblast and on the Lyman front were largely comprised of units that had been regarded as among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces before the war.[3] Elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army reportedly withdrew from Lyman to rear positions near Kreminna before October 2.[4] Russian sources previously reported that elements of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), especially the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, are active in Kherson Oblast.[5] Both the 144th Motorized Rifle Division and the 76th Guards Air Assault Division were previously lauded as some of Russia’s most elite forces, and their apparent failures to hold territory against major Ukrainian counter-offensive actions is consistent with ISW’s previous assessment that even the most elite Russian military forces are becoming increasingly degraded as the war continues. “
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-3
“A Russian channel gives 3 reasons why Russian forces are retreating in Kherson: 1) A lack of rotation/exhaustion (he mentions the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade) 2) Because of a lack of infantry, Russian forces stay in strongpoints in towns. Ukrainian forces push between them.”
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these are only small parts of the reason. what we’re seeing is that the ukes have learned to coordinate a whole lot of military parts in the battlespace.
this is the latest—they have learned how to jam russian communications. so the troops on the front lines are cut off from rear area commanders. that creates an impossible situation for the front line soldiers. they will break fast without orders.
imho the uke demand for 200 mile range missles will wane after they have punched south to melitopol.
the ukes can take back much of their territory faster than most realize because they have learned the modern way of war. and the russians have learned nothing.
what I don’t like about this —is that the natural result of this war will be the complete destabilization of russia.
those guys don’t have an orderly way to change. they just go from one ossified state to another. in between those two ossified states are terrible disorder.
now that they have 7000 nukes —this is an incredibly dangerous situation for the whole world. and its most dangerous to the ukes.
3) He says Ukrainian units painted “V” and “Z” markers on their vehicles which confused Russian forces. He suggests this means Ukraine has a C2/tracking system in all of their vehicles.