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MORE ON THE REFERENDUM GAME CHANGER
Sonar 21 ^ | 26 September 2022 | Larry Johnson

Posted on 09/27/2022 8:46:36 AM PDT by Kazan

Remember three weeks ago when Putin and the Russian military were on the ropes and the Ukrainian army was steamrolling through Kharkov? That was then and Urkaine’s promised victory failed to materialize. With the benefit of hindsight, it appears that Russia abandoned the strategically meaningless territory in the Kharkov Oblast of Ukraine and re-deployed forces to the Donbas, Zaporhyzhia and Kherson. Why? To be in position for the referendum–i.e., to defend the Ukraine oblasts that would be given the chance to vote whether or not to reunite with mother Russia. Putin’s subsequent announcement of the referenda, which began last Friday, was not a Hail Mary pass nor an act of desperation. The planning for this had been in the works for at least a month, maybe longer.

While Ukraine continued to throw its troops against the Russian lines and launched artillery strikes on civilian targets, it paid a terrible price in terms of human casualties and destroyed tanks and combat vehicles, and failed completely to disrupt the vote. There have been international observers monitoring the vote throughout the four oblasts. I wish at least one reporter would ask these observers when they were first contacted and asked to come to the Russian controlled territory and do the monitoring. That detail would provide some insight into the extent of the pre-planning for the referenda.

It appears that the vote to reunite with Russia will be overwhelming in favor of becoming Russian republics. Once the results are certified the Russian Duma will act to accept the decision and Putin will put the cherry on the sundae and make it official. At that point–this Friday–the special military operation in Ukraine will end and Russia will be in position to defend its new territory.

I expect Putin to speak commemorating the event and will put Ukraine, NATO and the United States on notice that any further attacks on Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporhyzhia and Kherson will be an attack on Russia. Ukraine and the west will be on notice. The ball will be in their court.

This will create an opportunity for what is left of Ukraine to seek peace. I doubt that Ukraine and the west will accept this chance. The attacks on the new Russian population will continue and Russia will act. In contrast to the restraint demonstrated during the course of the last six plus months, Russia is likely to respond with more aggressive tactics that may include turning off the power in Ukraine and attacking command centers, including Zelensky’s headquarters in Kiev. This will lead to a significant escalation in the combat, but Ukraine and NATO will have a limited capacity to respond. Why?

The west no longer has the industrial base to match Russia’s production of war material. This weakness is compounded by the double whammy of inflation and economic collapse that is savaging Europe and starting to hurt the United States. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank, recently published an important essay detailing this decline:

The war in Ukraine has proven that the age of industrial warfare is still here. The massive consumption of equipment, vehicles and ammunition requires a large-scale industrial base for resupply – quantity still has a quality of its own. The mass scale combat has pitted 250,000 Ukrainian soldiers, together with 450,000 recently mobilised citizen soldiers against about 200,000 Russian and separatist troops. The effort to arm, feed and supply these armies is a monumental task. Ammunition resupply is particularly onerous. For Ukraine, compounding this task are Russian deep fires capabilities, which target Ukrainian military industry and transportation networks throughout the depth of the country. The Russian army has also suffered from Ukrainian cross-border attacks and acts of sabotage, but at a smaller scale. The rate of ammunition and equipment consumption in Ukraine can only be sustained by a large-scale industrial base.

This reality should be a concrete warning to Western countries, who have scaled down military industrial capacity and sacrificed scale and effectiveness for efficiency. This strategy relies on flawed assumptions about the future of war, and has been influenced by both the bureaucratic culture in Western governments and the legacy of low-intensity conflicts. Currently, the West may not have the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale war. If the US government is planning to once again become the arsenal of democracy, then the existing capabilities of the US military-industrial base and the core assumptions that have driven its development need to be re-examined.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare

This is the work of Lt Col (Retd) Alex Vershinin, a US citizen. He spells out in detail the challenge the United States and its NATO allies face if they dare to engage Russia in a tit-for-tat battle:

Presently, the US is decreasing its artillery ammunition stockpiles. In 2020, artillery ammunition purchases decreased by 36% to $425 million. In 2022, the plan is to reduce expenditure on 155mm artillery rounds to $174 million. This is equivalent to 75,357 M795 basic ‘dumb’ rounds for regular artillery, 1,400 XM1113 rounds for the M777, and 1,046 XM1113 rounds for Extended Round Artillery Cannons. Finally, there are $75 million dedicated for Excalibur precision-guided munitions that costs $176K per round, thus totaling 426 rounds. In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.

The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare

Russia, by contrast, enjoys the luxury of defense plants that are operating 24-7 and producing ammunition, vehicles, tanks, drones, missiles and rockets. The west still labors under the delusion that Russia’s economy is barely tottering along. Russia has the minerals, material and qualified personnel required to produce what the Russian military needs to sustain operations; especially intense combat operations.

I do not know if this was the Russian plan from the outset–i.e., conduct operations that would create a de facto disarmament of the United States and Europe–or if this is pure serendipity. Regardless, the west has no viable options, short of nuclear war, of defeating Russia in Ukraine.

The coming weeks will expose fractures in the NATO alliance. Britain, for example, woke up this morning to learn that the once mighty pound Sterling, which once had twice the value of the US dollar, is now worth less than the dollar. That means that the Brits will be paying more for products they import from the United States. Although the United States only accounts for 12% of the UK imports, the price increase will further inflame the inflationary spiral in the UK. Newly minted British Prime Minister Liz Truss already is facing push back from the Tories about her proposed economic plan. The death of Queen Elizabeth put the political problems on a back burner for a couple of weeks. That honeymoon is over and the pressure of domestic politics in the UK will make continued support for Ukraine less certain.

The collapsing economies in France, Germany and Italy also will compel those countries to spend more time trying to quiet growing domestic unrest. When you factor in the energy crisis and Ukrainian military setbacks as winter sets in, the foundation of NATO unity vis-a-vis Ukraine, is likely to crack.


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: liberalworldorder; putin; russia; ukraine
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To: Kazan

We (The United States) chose to help one side in this conflict.

We chose to help Ukraine.

The battlefield for this conflict is thousands of miles away from us.

There are two oceans between us and this conflict.

There is not an immediate need for us to intervene in this conflict.

That leaves us to guess why we have intervened in this conflict.

Did we intervene because we figured the Russian Army might roll through Ukraine and then Europe and then attack us?


21 posted on 09/27/2022 11:03:01 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer” )
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To: Kazan; PIF
PIF, this doesn't feel like winning.

The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.

Russia, by contrast, enjoys the luxury of defense plants that are operating 24-7 and producing ammunition, vehicles, tanks, drones, missiles and rockets. The west still labors under the delusion that Russia’s economy is barely tottering along. Russia has the minerals, material and qualified personnel required to produce what the Russian military needs to sustain operations; especially intense combat operations.

I do not know if this was the Russian plan from the outset–i.e., conduct operations that would create a de facto disarmament of the United States and Europe–or if this is pure serendipity. Regardless, the west has no viable options, short of nuclear war, of defeating Russia in Ukraine.

22 posted on 09/27/2022 11:04:57 AM PDT by WMarshal (Neocons and leftards are the same species of vicious rat.)
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To: blueunicorn6

The results of the fighting in this conflict show us that the Russian Army is not the invincible force some would have us believe.

What, then, is the reason for us to militarily support Ukraine in this conflict?

We have made no attempt to hide our military support of Ukraine.

Why?


23 posted on 09/27/2022 11:15:14 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer” )
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To: Kazan

The only thing “gamechanging” about it is that is shows Russia to be so desperate that only the paid propagandists are still trying to pretend Russia isn’t losing.


24 posted on 09/27/2022 11:28:49 AM PDT by Boogieman
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To: WMarshal

HAHAHA did you write that yourself or plagiarize it from some Russian propaganda source? I’ll opt for the last.


25 posted on 09/27/2022 11:29:43 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: BJ1

“Should the war expand watch how fast LATVIA, ESTONIA AND LITHUANIA get attacked.”

LOL. Then Russia would truly be committing national suicide.


26 posted on 09/27/2022 11:30:41 AM PDT by Boogieman
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To: WMarshal

see post#5


27 posted on 09/27/2022 11:46:31 AM PDT by Chode (there is no fall back position, there's no rally point, there is no LZ... we're on our own. #FJB)
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To: BJ1; Chainmail; Kazan; canuck_conservative; exinnj; Chode

BJ1,

I am not laughing. Russians and Ukrainians are dying and now both Russian and Ukrainian cities are being destroyed by Putin’s ill-considered war.

That Russia/Putin would feel threatened by NATO when NATO stripped its European land forces and closed literally hundreds of bases is utter paranoia. Why would Putin fear anyone crossing the open plains or attacking choke points when there’s virtually nothing to attack them with?

NATO forces might be pretty strong these days but they’re still a guard force compared to what they were before 1989. So Putin is not worried about NATO, he’s really worried about a prosperous EU-member Ukraine on his border. As it stands Russian troops are impressed by the general level of prosperity in Ukraine which is poorer overall compared to Russia.

Many of those Russian troops are correctly asking why the general wealth of a poorer country is better than that of Russia? And the answer to that question is Putin. He is facing a revolt and the basis of that revolt will be the consumer goods that his troops looted from Ukraine.

The mention of Russian wonder-weapons does not impress me. Yes, they may make a few clever things but when they overstate a capability (like they have a tidal wave bomb) then I am inclined not to believe them. That might play well to the rubes in Kazan but it doesn’t impress me.

I am also not worried about Russian threats over our support for Ukraine. If Putin wants to attack us then he knows where we are. I suspect that the US also knows where to find Putin if they need to find him. And kill him. And we really do have weapons that can kill him even if he hides in that big bunker in the Ural Mountains.

I don’t disagree that Biden is a disaster. In the here and now that makes very little impact on the ability of Russia to defeat Ukraine.

As to your interesting news story the problem with that is that the Ukrainian government would fall if they traded land to Russia for a temporary peace. Because at this point no one in their right mind should trust any promises made by Russia and signed by Putin. Zelensky would be quickly ousted if he negotiated a defeat like that.

You would be right that NATO wants to weaken Russia. At least NATO wants to weaken Russia if it insists on being a pain in the butt to everyone around them.


28 posted on 09/27/2022 11:49:20 AM PDT by MeganC (There is nothing feminine about feminism. )
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To: Kazan
PCR wrote this and linked to the piece posted. Here is his commentary:

A Fateful Moment of History Is Upon Us
Paul Craig Roberts

Dear Readers, I have explained to you that there has been no Russian defeat in Ukraine and will not be a Russian defeat. I informed you that Putin and the Kremlin are committed to one important thing that differentiates Russia from the US and that is that Russia follows international law and the US does not.

This is why there has been no “Russian invasion of Ukraine” as proclaimed by Western propagandists. Kiev, the functioning of the Ukraine government, and the cities and infrastructure of western Ukraine have not been attacked.

The Kremlin has limited its military operations to the areas in Ukraine where the majority Russian population was being shelled, occupied, and murdered by Ukrainian forces and which faced last February an invasion of a large Western-trained Ukrainian army and neo-Nazi militias intended to overthrow the two independent Donbass republics recognized by the Russian government.

The republics requested Russia’s intervention, which made the “limited military operation” legal under international law.

As my readers know, I regard the limited operation a mistake as it has drawn out the conflict and allowed the West to get deeply involved, thus promising a wider war that would likely turn nuclear. I thought and still do that Russia was emphasizing legality at the risk of nuclear war.

The Kremlin has now acted to remove the constraint of international law with the referendums in the four areas whether the inhabitants wish reunification with Russia. It is clear that the vote will be yes, and that the Duma and the Kremlin will proceed rapidly to reincorporate the former Russian territory back into Russia.

At that point Ukraine’s continuation of the war involves direct Ukrainian aggression against Russia herself. This frees the Kremlin’s hands as the war becomes Russia’s response to Ukrainian aggression. At this point it will be clear to all involved that Kiev, the Ukraine government, and the cities and infrastructure of western Ukraine no longer have immunity. In other words it becomes a real war with devastating consequences for Ukraine and possibly as well for all Western suppliers of weapons and intelligence.

Americans are not prepared for this, because all they have heard about the conflict is Russophobic propaganda and false reporting of the reality.

Larry Johnson, an honest and competent commentator, repeats this account and adds that the West lacks the capacity to produce weapons and ammunition on the scale demanded by a full war and that the European economies are facing shutdowns as the consequent of US sanctions against Russia. The message is that the US/NATO have no means of preventing a rapid Russian conquest of Ukraine except by resort to nuclear war, in which case the Western World will cease to exist.

That we could be in this extremely dangerous position is due to the total absence in the West of an honest and independent media and of honest and competent Russian experts. Essentially, there is no intelligence in the West among those making decisions and no accurate information getting through to the Western populations.

I and a few others have made huge efforts, but we are called “conspiracy theorists,” “Russian agents/dupes,” and other names used to discredit those who actually understand the reality of the situation. The growing restraints on what can be said, or if said paid attention to, has created massive ignorance as we come to a possible fateful moment in history.


29 posted on 09/27/2022 1:04:20 PM PDT by Vlad0
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To: BJ1
It boggles my mind why so many on this site casually blow off the danger that this whole thing can escalate to something we will all regret.
I don't understand it, as well. There has always been no USA national interest.

But once some people stake out a position on an issue, they'd rather you die (but not themselves) rather than change it.

Btw, while we are discussing this 'NATO' conflict, I am sick of any NATO war being in reality an American war. Euros have big mouths but not much military.

30 posted on 09/27/2022 2:18:40 PM PDT by citizen (Thieves of private property pass their lives in chains; thieves of public prop. in riches and luxury)
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To: PIF
"HAHAHA did you write that yourself or plagiarize it from some Russian propaganda source? I’ll opt for the last."

I took it from the article of the post........ Sad

31 posted on 09/27/2022 2:37:15 PM PDT by WMarshal (Neocons and leftards are the same species of vicious rat.)
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To: Vlad0
That we could be in this extremely dangerous position is due to the total absence in the West of an honest and independent media...
This is so true. So much of the world's ills today is because the main western media everywhere has stopped being political reporters and become political cheerleaders "shaping the narrative" in any way that pleases their liberal instincts.
32 posted on 09/27/2022 2:39:23 PM PDT by citizen (Thieves of private property pass their lives in chains; thieves of public prop. in riches and luxury)
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To: citizen

What I’ve noticed is that the media used to employ a lot of 40 to 60 year old people, especially in for political and foreign affairs reporting, where it takes a while to undertand things. They needed the expertise, experience and contacts these men and women had to get to the facts of a story. They had to pay them decently, and pay expenses when they were traveling to cover stories, which they did a lot of.

Now all the news “reporters” are 20 somethings, and work remotely or, at best, out of the headquarters building for their media company. They don’t have to know anything, because their job is formulating the “narrative”, and presenting it in a snarky, patronizing way that makes it clear that any disagreement makes you an idiot or a bigot or worse. You don’t need to travel to Kiev of Warsaw to right about things happening there, all the knowledge you need can be developed in a #slack meeting or editorial ‘struggle session’ with your peers.

The news is worth what they pay for it. Which now is: not much.


33 posted on 09/27/2022 2:51:00 PM PDT by Vlad0
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right = write. sorry!


34 posted on 09/27/2022 2:52:39 PM PDT by Vlad0
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To: Vlad0

I had not considered the expense of fielding reporters on the ground at a particular locale. These youngsters ‘travel’ online and gather their facts from previous articles written by other young reporters of a similar mindset. Add in, as you noted, the loss of the experience and contacts of the now-gone seasoned reporters and the result is, in large part, editorials presented as news stories.


35 posted on 09/27/2022 3:05:46 PM PDT by citizen (Thieves of private property pass their lives in chains; thieves of public prop. in riches and luxury)
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To: WMarshal

No attribution so it was plagiarized.


36 posted on 09/27/2022 3:46:10 PM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: PIF

It was block-quoted in the same thread that the article was posted in.

Lazy and stupid is no way to go through life.


37 posted on 09/27/2022 4:18:34 PM PDT by WMarshal (Neocons and leftards are the same species of vicious rat.)
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To: MeganC
Russians and Ukrainians are dying and now both Russian and Ukrainian cities are being destroyed by Putin’s ill-considered war.

You're presenting a narrative that is a LIE.

People in Ukraine have been dying FOR EIGHT YEARS because we stuck our noses into Ukraine and fomented the Maiden revolution that lead to an eight-year civil war.

We trained, funded and enabled NEO-NAZIS and Ukrainian nationalists to persecute and kill the ethnic Russian population. More than 14,000 people died in Donetsk as a result.

This war is a conclusion that civil war and it involves Ukrainians fighting off invaders and seeking their freedom. Those Ukrainians live in Donetsk and Lugansk and other parts of eastern and southeastern Ukraine.

Russia CAME to us to try to avoid this war. All it wanted was a guarantee Ukraine wouldn't join NATO and be neutral and Minsk Accords, which Ukraine signed implemented that would have protected the ethnic Russian population and given some level of autonomy to Donetsk and Lugansk.

Neoconism and globlism is what created this war. It's been a disaster for 20 years. We meddle in nations, destabilize them and set off civil wars. Thousands die. And, all for the benefit of our political class, oligarchs and the military industrial complex.

God damn you or anyone else that supports all that.

38 posted on 09/27/2022 4:36:13 PM PDT by Kazan
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To: Kazan

Arent you the doofus who said Russia would never invaded Ukraine; it was as false as the Russian collusion hoax?

Yes, that was you...

You have no credibility


39 posted on 09/27/2022 5:35:23 PM PDT by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince
Aren't you the doofus that BET me that Ukraine would take back Kherson by the end of the September? Yet, here you are still promoting bullsh$t Biden regime narratives.

Everything you've said about this war has been WRONG.

40 posted on 09/27/2022 6:24:47 PM PDT by Kazan
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