Posted on 09/27/2022 8:46:36 AM PDT by Kazan
Remember three weeks ago when Putin and the Russian military were on the ropes and the Ukrainian army was steamrolling through Kharkov? That was then and Urkaine’s promised victory failed to materialize. With the benefit of hindsight, it appears that Russia abandoned the strategically meaningless territory in the Kharkov Oblast of Ukraine and re-deployed forces to the Donbas, Zaporhyzhia and Kherson. Why? To be in position for the referendum–i.e., to defend the Ukraine oblasts that would be given the chance to vote whether or not to reunite with mother Russia. Putin’s subsequent announcement of the referenda, which began last Friday, was not a Hail Mary pass nor an act of desperation. The planning for this had been in the works for at least a month, maybe longer.
While Ukraine continued to throw its troops against the Russian lines and launched artillery strikes on civilian targets, it paid a terrible price in terms of human casualties and destroyed tanks and combat vehicles, and failed completely to disrupt the vote. There have been international observers monitoring the vote throughout the four oblasts. I wish at least one reporter would ask these observers when they were first contacted and asked to come to the Russian controlled territory and do the monitoring. That detail would provide some insight into the extent of the pre-planning for the referenda.
It appears that the vote to reunite with Russia will be overwhelming in favor of becoming Russian republics. Once the results are certified the Russian Duma will act to accept the decision and Putin will put the cherry on the sundae and make it official. At that point–this Friday–the special military operation in Ukraine will end and Russia will be in position to defend its new territory.
I expect Putin to speak commemorating the event and will put Ukraine, NATO and the United States on notice that any further attacks on Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporhyzhia and Kherson will be an attack on Russia. Ukraine and the west will be on notice. The ball will be in their court.
This will create an opportunity for what is left of Ukraine to seek peace. I doubt that Ukraine and the west will accept this chance. The attacks on the new Russian population will continue and Russia will act. In contrast to the restraint demonstrated during the course of the last six plus months, Russia is likely to respond with more aggressive tactics that may include turning off the power in Ukraine and attacking command centers, including Zelensky’s headquarters in Kiev. This will lead to a significant escalation in the combat, but Ukraine and NATO will have a limited capacity to respond. Why?
The west no longer has the industrial base to match Russia’s production of war material. This weakness is compounded by the double whammy of inflation and economic collapse that is savaging Europe and starting to hurt the United States. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank, recently published an important essay detailing this decline:
The war in Ukraine has proven that the age of industrial warfare is still here. The massive consumption of equipment, vehicles and ammunition requires a large-scale industrial base for resupply – quantity still has a quality of its own. The mass scale combat has pitted 250,000 Ukrainian soldiers, together with 450,000 recently mobilised citizen soldiers against about 200,000 Russian and separatist troops. The effort to arm, feed and supply these armies is a monumental task. Ammunition resupply is particularly onerous. For Ukraine, compounding this task are Russian deep fires capabilities, which target Ukrainian military industry and transportation networks throughout the depth of the country. The Russian army has also suffered from Ukrainian cross-border attacks and acts of sabotage, but at a smaller scale. The rate of ammunition and equipment consumption in Ukraine can only be sustained by a large-scale industrial base.
This reality should be a concrete warning to Western countries, who have scaled down military industrial capacity and sacrificed scale and effectiveness for efficiency. This strategy relies on flawed assumptions about the future of war, and has been influenced by both the bureaucratic culture in Western governments and the legacy of low-intensity conflicts. Currently, the West may not have the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale war. If the US government is planning to once again become the arsenal of democracy, then the existing capabilities of the US military-industrial base and the core assumptions that have driven its development need to be re-examined.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
This is the work of Lt Col (Retd) Alex Vershinin, a US citizen. He spells out in detail the challenge the United States and its NATO allies face if they dare to engage Russia in a tit-for-tat battle:
Presently, the US is decreasing its artillery ammunition stockpiles. In 2020, artillery ammunition purchases decreased by 36% to $425 million. In 2022, the plan is to reduce expenditure on 155mm artillery rounds to $174 million. This is equivalent to 75,357 M795 basic ‘dumb’ rounds for regular artillery, 1,400 XM1113 rounds for the M777, and 1,046 XM1113 rounds for Extended Round Artillery Cannons. Finally, there are $75 million dedicated for Excalibur precision-guided munitions that costs $176K per round, thus totaling 426 rounds. In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.
The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
Russia, by contrast, enjoys the luxury of defense plants that are operating 24-7 and producing ammunition, vehicles, tanks, drones, missiles and rockets. The west still labors under the delusion that Russia’s economy is barely tottering along. Russia has the minerals, material and qualified personnel required to produce what the Russian military needs to sustain operations; especially intense combat operations.
I do not know if this was the Russian plan from the outset–i.e., conduct operations that would create a de facto disarmament of the United States and Europe–or if this is pure serendipity. Regardless, the west has no viable options, short of nuclear war, of defeating Russia in Ukraine.
The coming weeks will expose fractures in the NATO alliance. Britain, for example, woke up this morning to learn that the once mighty pound Sterling, which once had twice the value of the US dollar, is now worth less than the dollar. That means that the Brits will be paying more for products they import from the United States. Although the United States only accounts for 12% of the UK imports, the price increase will further inflame the inflationary spiral in the UK. Newly minted British Prime Minister Liz Truss already is facing push back from the Tories about her proposed economic plan. The death of Queen Elizabeth put the political problems on a back burner for a couple of weeks. That honeymoon is over and the pressure of domestic politics in the UK will make continued support for Ukraine less certain.
The collapsing economies in France, Germany and Italy also will compel those countries to spend more time trying to quiet growing domestic unrest. When you factor in the energy crisis and Ukrainian military setbacks as winter sets in, the foundation of NATO unity vis-a-vis Ukraine, is likely to crack.
Holding stolen territory so it can "vote" while the invading troops control is also nonsense. Don't think that anyone is fooled
Not to mention the vote wasn’t private, the Government knows who voted what way ... so Putin’s Government thugs can beat up anyone who didn’t vote “correctly”
plus all exiles in Ukraine weren’t allowed to cast a vote
that’s not a free or fair election, and thus has no legitimacy
In the Russian video of the election they showed armed Russian soldiers running the polling stations, armed Russian soldiers guarding the polling stations, and armed Russian soldiers voting.
And this was official Russian video!
defense plants that are operating 24-7 and producing ammunition, vehicles, tanks, drones, missiles and rockets.
well yes and no
their drones are coming from Iran
and they better hope they have a good supply if chips for their electronics, because their supply line is gone, so...
History does not start in the spring of 2022. Back in the 19th century Ukraine was divided between Russia and Austria-Hungary. In the aftermath of WW1 this whole area was engulfed in war. Russia had a civil war, Poland fought for it’s independence and Ukraine became absorbed into the then Soviet Union. There are a mix of ethnic groups in Ukraine. And at the eastern portion the majority ethnic group is Russian. Since 2014 Ukraine had a war going on between separatist groups. I present you an article from 1.5 years ago where the headline reads UKRAINE INTENSIFIES SHELLING OF DONBASS AS WESTERN MEDIA ARE SILENT. This occurred despite the Minsk agreements that there would be a ceasefire.
https://popularresistance.org/ukraine-intensifies-shelling-of-donbass-as-western-media-are-silent/
And before you guys cite Crimea, that area was part of the Russian Republic until Nikita Krushnev decided to make a political gesture to Ukraine and hand it over to them. But that was at the time, it was just an administrative move. Crimea had been part of Russia since 1783. You may not like what Russia is doing. How they are doing it. And may despise Putin. But the fact of the matter is, is that for over 7 years ethnic Russians were being killed by Ukrainian artillery rounds.
The United States citing the Monroe Doctrine almost went to war with the USSR for putting missiles in Cuba. Putin has been very clear for years that under no circumstances would he allow Ukraine to become a NATO member. Just as the USA was willing to go to war over missiles in Cuba, Putin is ready to go to war with NATO over Ukraine.
Do you think the 300k troops he is now mobilizing are only going to fight in Ukraine? Should the war expand watch how fast LATVIA, ESTONIA AND LITHUANIA get attacked. Poland knows Putin covets these lands as well as eastern Poland. This is why Poland has been building up it’s military strength which is at odds with almost all other EU member countries.
Peter Zeihan has made an interesting observation about the lack of proficiency of Russia’s military. It’s simply that NATO would kick their ass. And that is about the most scary scenario you can imagine. Because Putin controls the worlds largest nuclear arsenal. I ask you, how much do you care about Ukraine? IDGAF about them myself. They are a corrupt bunch. And I’m certainly not willing to risk mushroom clouds over my country because I don’t like Putin. This is not a hill to die on. Only a fool would care about a non strategic country to America’s interests.
Then the Soviets indulged in massive "ethnic cleansing" to the tune of 9 million Ukrainians murdered during Stalin's starvation campaign against them. Those ethnic Russian living there were squatters, living in the towns and homes of the murdered Ukrainians.
When the USSR finally ran out of steam, the Ukraine reestablished their nation and the Russians have been interfering ever since.
Russia is the imperialist aggressor, willing to use any level of violence to seize any country it feels like - just without the former banner of "rallying the world's proletariat". That has always been Russia and apparently, always will be Russia.
Video of a burning factory reportedly in Russia's Novokuznetsk
It’s Stalinist agitprop in the usual Russian tradition. Only the willfully blind don’t see the ugly reality here.
If you care so much about Ukraine and right the wrongs of the old Soviet Union go to Ukraine and fight yourself. Or donate your own money to them. I for one don’t want to risk ww3 over this issue. It boggles my mind why so many on this site casually blow off the danger that this whole thing can escalate to something we will all regret.
This sham referendum is about as valid as an counties bordering Mexico voting to join the cartels.
It should be totally ignored.
L
Thanks for posting a great example of Russian and communist disinformation. The article was published by popularresistance.org. In their own words from that website:
"We began in January, 2011, when dozens of activists from different parts of the United States came together to organize a people’s occupation of Freedom Plaza in Washington, DC."
Their logo is the red raised fist, just like other communist groups in the USA, and groups like Rose City Antifa.
Their claim about deaths in the Donbass conflict is false. About 25 people died in the Donbass conflict area in 2021, half of them from accidents with mines or unexploded munitions left behind.
Records from the UN observers in the area, and the local governments show essentially every example of shelling from the Ukrainian government controlled side of the line of contact was in response to fire from the LPR or DNR controlled territories.
So how does your posting of material from a US based communist organization that contradicts the reality reported by the UN, the Ukrainian government, and the LPR and DNR governments fit in with being a conservative?
Do you always believe what people from Occupy Wallstreet and Antifa tell you?
BJ1, there is a lot to unpack in your post.
1. If you wish to assert Russian claims on Ukraine from the 1800’s then I assume you want Russia to relinquish Siberia to China based upon the same logic?
2. Ukraine shelling Russian forces in Donbas after 2014 makes perfect sense. Bear in mind the “Little Green Men” lie was itself outed by Putin who acknowledged the LGM were all Russian soldiers.
3. Russian claims on Crimea ended with the USSR. Period. Just like their claims on the rest of Ukraine, Moldova, and other parts of the former USSR. Russia was PART of the USSR and is not supposed to be the heir apparent. And if you wish to assert that Russia has rights to USSR territory then don’t complain if people equate Russia to the USSR.
4. If Putin wants to go to war with NATO or anyone else that’s his choice. It will be the Russian people who suffer for that choice.
5. You’re threatening to have 300,000 Russian conscripts invade NATO? LOL.
6. Poland is not the only EU country taking steps to build their military. Germany recently announced their intention to build the most powerful military in Europe and a lot of people are reading this to include nuclear weapons. Imagine German nukes!! Putin made that idea a legitimate possibility.
7. You say that Putin controls the world’s largest nuclear arsenal but there is little evidence to support that assertion. Someone else on FR wrote a lot about how Russia’s nuclear weapons plant has been offline since 2017 and how a lot of the weapons counted in the current inventory are actually Soviet era weapons sitting in warehouses waiting to be reprocessed if Russia ever builds a new weapons plant. I don’t believe Russia has NO nuclear weapons but there is no evidence to support their claims of 5,000 to 8,000 and even 12,000 weapons.
8. I am sorry that Putin can intimidate you with his nuclear threats. That’s your problem.
Jesus went to the cross. The least I can do is support the people of Ukraine as they fight back the Evil Empire.
It's a narrative that is A LIE.
There has been an ongoing civil war in Ukraine for eight years, one we set off by fomenting the Maiden revolution. We funded, trained an enabled neo-Nazis and Ukrainian nationalists to persecute and kill the ethnic Russian population, which no longer wanted to ruled by Ukrainian nationalists that came to power illegally.
The Russians had more of reason to intervene on behalf of ethnic Russians than we had in the first Iraq war.
And, never mind the fact Kamala Harris was out teasing NATO membership for Ukraine, the fact we armed Ukraine with offensive weapons or that we were running biolabs with deadly pathogens in them. There is NO CHANCE we would tolerate Russia or China dong the same thing in Mexico.
And, the proof your narrative is a lie is that Russia came to us with their security concerns in December in an effort to PREVENT going to war. All the wanted was a guarantee that Ukraine remain neutral and not join NATO and that the Minsk Agreement, which Ukraine signed and would have protected ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine, be implemented. ALL reasonable demands that Donald Trump would have agreed to.
Thank you Megan, that was straight to the point.
“It boggles my mind why so many on this site casually blow off the danger that this whole thing can escalate to something we will all regret.”
Can you point to one time in history that giving in to a dictator’s expansionist demands led to peace in the long run?
Better a small war in Ukraine than a big war in Poland.
damn...
You can laugh it up all you want. Putin sees vulnerabilities to his country in all the open plains that have been used to invade Russia over the centuries. Forward stationing troops at all the vulnerable choke points is what the old USSR had accomplished. Putin has been trying his best to reassert control over what was lost. Due to demographics It’s the opinion of smarter ppl than me that it’s now or never for Russia if they want to use military force. In the direction of Europe, it’s the plains of eastern Poland and also the baltic states along with some territory of Romania that they would like to size to have shorter more defensible borders. Russia will never be as strong as it is versus the west as it is today. They had a crushing baby bust in the 90s if you recall. As for intimidation by Putin, I’m not. He talks about this new hyper-sonic missiles or some underwater nuke that will make a tidal wave on the east coast. Why should that scare me more than what is already known about mutually assured destruction? I’m just worried that the longer this plays out, and the more we escalate our support of Ukraine things could get out of hand. Need I remind you who’s in charge of our country? What did that man say again about F-15s vs. AR-15s? What did he say about the Taliban not overwhelming Afghanistan? I think you remember. Biden is a disaster.
One last thing about Putin. Whenever I had expressed what the man says in the past, I hear ppl on FR dismiss it with the attitude of SO WHAT. He had warned for over ten years Ukraine could not join NATO and here we are after that NATO talk never went away. I suggest we let him take his slice of Ukraine through a negotiated peace and let his country slowly collapse through low birth rates, high emigration and a population of men who drink themselves to death by their 50s. Russia will slowly become less and less important if trends stay the same.
FYI interesting news story I saw: Negotiations that happened around May were going good. Russia had tentatively agreed to leave Ukraine and Ukraine agreed to promise not to join NATO. But the usa and britain were none too pleased with that and encouraged Ukraine to keep fighting. Apparently we want to weaken Russia while bleeding Ukraine. That’s not helping Ukraine one bit. That’s manipulating them.
“Can you point to one time in history that giving in to a dictator’s expansionist demands led to peace in the long run?
Better a small war in Ukraine than a big war in Poland.”
That’s one viewpoint that could be true. But the demographic future of Russia is bleak. Their population will be shrinking in a big way very soon. Their strength will decline over time imo. The Russia of 20 years from now will be much less capable than today. Time is not their friend. As for Poland they are doing nothing but gaining strength year after year. Fast forward ten years and Poland will be much stronger. IMO it’s now or never for Russia to move in Poland’s direction. Considering how much trouble they are having Ukraine, I find it hard to see them talking themselves into a fresh war with Poland if they negotiate peace with Ukraine. But if they feel their back is to the wall, all bets are off. I suppose we live in interesting times.
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