Do you really think African countries are in a position to help Ukraine. South America is not much better. That doesn't mean they don't support Ukraine.
Look at the UN Vote. 141 of 193 countries voted to condemn Russia on March 2.
Posted on 08/17/2022 7:40:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
This is a really good question and has piqued my interest since it speaks directly to my doctoral research, rendering me somewhat qualified to answer this question from a behavioural scientific perspective.
To understand the psychological outcome of this war, we need to understand what it is that Putin wants and then determine his current mindset with regards to the attainment of those desires or preferences. And here we run into problems, because in spite of the copious amount of ink spilt on the topic, nobody knows exactly - perhaps not even Putin himself - what he wants.
The signalling from the Kremlin ranging from NATO encroachment through de-Nazification, the possible dangers of future attacks, to downright imperialism, etc., etc., leave Putin lacking a unified message to his armies and people, and this is one of the reasons why the Kremlin have lost the information war so comprehensively.
However, it presents Putin with the unique situation within which he can slip and slide his way through this war without ever admitting defeat. For instance, following Mariupol he could simply have declared the de-Nazification process complete, called it a victory and withdrawn his armies. He could, but of course he never did, suggesting that it was never a true motive for this war.
If not true motives, what can we discern of his desires from his direction? For me, the helter-skelter of the first hours of the war is a solid indication - Putin never expected this war to last as long as it already has. In spite of the vatniks assuring us that ‘Kyiv was only a feint’, the observations on those first three days of battle belie such an assertion, baseless as it is.
Putin wanted Kyiv and he was certain that just in Crimea in 2014, his forces would take it with the minimum resistance. Zelynskyy was anticipated to flee Kyiv (or be assassinated by FSB teams inside Kyiv) and all resistance was sure to collapse at the first sign of trouble. However, none of this happened and the elite of the Russian Army were punished mercilessly for their hubris, most notably at Hostomel Airport.
As it may, Putin wanted Kyiv and for whatever we can say of the absolutely catastrophic opening phase of Russia’s war (and by God, it was so incredibly bad), he desired the Ukrainian government to collapse. Since that never happened, Putin has had to revise his preferences for the war, and then revise these again, and again, and again - in the process relieving no less than five (possibly six) theatre commanders of their posts, a list that includes the Butcher of Aleppo, Aleksandr Dvornikov - the Kremlin’s blue-eyed boy for all matters relating to genocide.
As the Russian armed forces struggle to reach even the reduced objectives and as the Ukrainian forces are now counter-attacking, I notice that the Russian invaders have become entirely reactive - they no longer dictate where the fighting should occur and when. For instance, when Ukraine broadcasted their plans to counter-attack towards Kherson, Russia drew down the resources for their offensives in Donbas and rushed these to the south to counter the Ukrainian initiative.
As the Russians crammed forces across the River Dnipro, Ukrainians simply applied their long-range artillery to destroy the sole remaining bridge there (the Antonivskyy bridge) and the Russians on the western bank of the Dnipro are now stuck and cut off from their lines of communication. In the mean while, Ukrainian forces started counter-attacking towards Izium and Russia lack the reserves to respond. Nor can Russia redeploy their forces in Kherson, because the bridge is down and the entire area is now a death trap.
But how does all of this translate into a response on your question? On the one side of the coin, it is legitimate to argue that Russia have already lost the war and that it is purely their preponderance in materiel that afford them to continue purely as a face-saving effort. But I understand that the psychology of conflict outcomes resides in a rarefied atmosphere and there may be those who prefer a more concrete indication of outcome.
To those, I believe that the Russians’ lack of reserves and initiative will cause the issue to come to a head before the end of this year, perhaps even before winter. Whichever way, it is only a matter of time - Russia’s defeat in Ukraine is now inevitable and I’m sure that Putin regrets the entire affair deeply.
“The Oligarchs here and in Ukraine and some in NATO countries have stuffed their pockets with billions of dollars”
But the Russian oligarchs are all nice people with their billion dollar palaces, half-billion dollar superyachts, and billions in now-frozen foreign bank accounts.
They showed long lines of traffic backed up.
They interviewed some as well.
It wasn’t the military.
It was civilians and probably mostly vacationers who saw the air base go up in flames and figured they better high tail it.
You need to invite all the people who were run out of Crimea by the Russians to participate in such a referendum.
That's the same problem with Russia claiming they want to hold a referendum in the eastern provinces. They've destroyed the cities and run most people out. Now they want to hold a referendum? Sorry that's not going to work.
There's the rub. Who is going to bell the cat? Russia and Ukraine would have to agree to it. Putin has made it clear over and over again that Crimea is not on the table.
Maybe we can convince China to us such a solution for Tibet, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.
RE: Who is going to bell the cat?
It will happen when both sides have fought themselves into exhaustion.
You don’t get it. Ukraine isn’t dependent on the Russian Oligarchs.
He! I like the disclaimer!
On your bullets:
1. I wouldn’t say Ukraine has most of the support of the world. Most of the world knew very little about Ukraine before the invasion - I suspect they’d have ignored it, like Chechnya and Georgia. Ukraine is only different because Russia ITSELF can’t stop talking about the mission creep... one minute the war is about dealing with 5000 nazis in Donbas, the next it’s about beach front property all the way to Moldova, and then it’s simply step one of their Second Great Patriotic War mission to grab Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Moldova.
2. Another thing that Russia has to worry about is, which side will the DISPLACED “ethic Russian” peoples not actually from Russia choose to fight on if they are given no other choice but to fight.
There’s a refugee family in my town, from Kherson, whose apartment block was completely taken over by out-of-towners. They’ve been completely disowned by their relatives in Russia. They had everything in Kherson stolen from them by the Russians. Even if they went back, they wouldn’t get a vote in the Russian referendum, and it’s highly unlikely they’d enjoy life under the administration that has been brutalizing friends of theirs who didn’t get out in time.
They have been stung by family inside Russia who’re openly denouncing them as traitors to Mother Russia simply for choosing to flee west instead of east. It’s in stark contrast to the sympathy and hospitality they’re getting even from the Ukrainian speaking community here.
Guess whose side they’re on now. Clue: it’s not Putin’s side anymore. They’ve been fundraising to buy more Bayraktars.
Putin can’t really complain. He knows there’s no motive more powerful than revanchism. And BOY has he inspired revanchism in the Russian Ukrainian community... to switch sides, and support Zelenskyy.
All it takes is one side. We can hasten that solution and eliminate more needless death and destruction by putting pressure on the Ukrainians. We are not just bystanders.
win WWII? billions to rebuild, socialists rule, despise Americans, supporting NATO, i guess we can call it a draw.
One of many reasons why once military action has occurred by an occupying force, referendums will never be fair. Too many people killed, displaced, or brought in by the occupiers to ever be fair.
The fairest thing to do is to restore the borders to what they were, let the occupiers be deported, and let the surviving refugees come home.
It may be too early for it, but I would sure like to hear how this invasion and Ukraine’s inspiring struggle to defend itself against the mighty Russia has changed the people of Ukraine and how they look at themselves and Ukraine’s place in the world and who has been there for them and where their future lies in regards to their becoming part of the West.
Surely the Ukrainians today are very different from the Ukrainians of 2020 and 2010 and 2000.
“You don’t get it. Ukraine isn’t dependent on the Russian Oligarchs.”
Non sequitur.
Worth remembering even before the war, Ukraine was a very poor country with a per capita GDP of just $14,400 just $100 more than Cuba. It was/is one of the most corrupt countries in the world.
kabar mentions the referenda but we must interpret them in light of the Russian-speaking people’s, (the “ethnic Russians” of Ukraine,) expectations of the Ukrainian government. They knew and know that their language and rights would be destroyed.
I have followed you, S and F, on FR for many years now, (I’m a big fan,) so I wonder if perhaps it would help to satisfy your curiosity about all this if you were to look into understanding the Slavic mindset, particularly about war in general. Kabar seems to know about this though his answer is tailored to our presuppositions. Many on the thread including some who are aware of events and history in the region, still think like the English. Your comment on the solution is just as reasonable to us and our mindset as was Minsk II and won’t “work” any better. You already understand the geopolitical factors, the “Guns Germs and Steel” part of it, so I am suggesting adding to that the “slavic mind” in our analysis.
20 years ago, I was an occasional teacher at the Slavic Baptist Institute in Kovel Ukraine and had to deal with students and supporting pastors who were very opposed some even hostile to us opening to students from all over the former Soviet Union and to our teaching classes in the Russian language. We were able to settle that once and for all and the school continues to this day. I am really out of te loop these days though.
Thanks to you both!
You are incapable of connecting the dots. Have a good day and adios.
My interest is in what Ukraine is now and for the future, the Russian invasion has brought Ukraine onto the world stage and changed its people and its future.
Thank you for the summary of Neocon/lib, Nato, WEF, CIA/MI6 disinformation. FWIW, I believe you are sincere, unlike the trolls here. I wonder if you will be able to eventually accept you have been misled. To take the most easily “debunkable” item on your list: “Ukraine has the support of most of the world.” How many African countries have declared support for Ukraine and sanctions? South American countries? China? Middle East? South Asia? You will find some supporting the RF, most remaining officially neutral, and only a very few offering lipservice.
The whole Kherson thing you repeat is terribly far from the truth, too. It’s a fantasy from A Daily Mail article that was probably “informed by” MI6. To understand why the claims are silly, you’d have to know what HIMARS can and can’t do (roadbed potholes, yes, structural damage, no), how many HIMARS systems are likely still left and how many missiles remain, how good the S300 and S400 anti missile systems are, how many pontoon bridges the Russians have as a back up, etc. Use Google earth and look at the terrain approaching Kherson region from the west; it’s a steppe. An advance there would be worse than the charge of the Light Brigade. If you were following more closely, you’d know that the Kiev government has as much as said that the claim about the upcoming Kherson offensive was a feint to draw Russian forces from the Donbass.
Do you have any idea how important Bakhmut is? It’s in the process of being taken methodically street by street, block by block. That’s also the general situation in rest of the contested area of the Donbass.
There’s a lot more, but just wait and see, and try to be skeptical of the Western “narrative”. Remember the Covid hoax? The Russian collusion hoax, etc.?
Like it or not, the Russians will probably end up dictating terms.
In terms of our national interests, I am more concerned about how our involvement in Ukraine will change our future and our people. We have crossed the Rubicon in terms of a new Cold War with Russia and how this impacts Sino-Russian relations. We are facing the greatest threat to our Republic in our history.
Is Ukraine the hill worth dying on for our nation and our allies?
Do you really think African countries are in a position to help Ukraine. South America is not much better. That doesn't mean they don't support Ukraine.
Look at the UN Vote. 141 of 193 countries voted to condemn Russia on March 2.
This video alone shows we MUST support Ukraine now rather than in the future when Russia has invaded & slaughter more nations:
In Yekaterinburg, Russia, Sima-Land online retailer continues filming cringe videos clearly modeled on the Nazi Germany originals. Thousands of workers are filmed pledging their allegiance to Putin, their dear Führer:
So,
Who are the Nazis? (Russian military)
who are the fascists? (Russian people)
who is the Fuhrer? (Littleman Pootin).
To be empathetic, there’s a lot to lose in Russia, if they declined to participate. If you don’t stuck in jail for 15 years or dead!
Absolutely. It’s a tyranny.
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