Will Russia Lose the War in Ukraine?

Quora: Truth About Russia ^ | 08/08/2022 | Quintin Van Zyl

[SeekAndFind]

This is a really good question and has piqued my interest since it speaks directly to my doctoral research, rendering me somewhat qualified to answer this question from a behavioural scientific perspective.

To understand the psychological outcome of this war, we need to understand what it is that Putin wants and then determine his current mindset with regards to the attainment of those desires or preferences. And here we run into problems, because in spite of the copious amount of ink spilt on the topic, nobody knows exactly - perhaps not even Putin himself - what he wants.

The signalling from the Kremlin ranging from NATO encroachment through de-Nazification, the possible dangers of future attacks, to downright imperialism, etc., etc., leave Putin lacking a unified message to his armies and people, and this is one of the reasons why the Kremlin have lost the information war so comprehensively.

However, it presents Putin with the unique situation within which he can slip and slide his way through this war without ever admitting defeat. For instance, following Mariupol he could simply have declared the de-Nazification process complete, called it a victory and withdrawn his armies. He could, but of course he never did, suggesting that it was never a true motive for this war.

If not true motives, what can we discern of his desires from his direction? For me, the helter-skelter of the first hours of the war is a solid indication - Putin never expected this war to last as long as it already has. In spite of the vatniks assuring us that ‘Kyiv was only a feint’, the observations on those first three days of battle belie such an assertion, baseless as it is.

Putin wanted Kyiv and he was certain that just in Crimea in 2014, his forces would take it with the minimum resistance. Zelynskyy was anticipated to flee Kyiv (or be assassinated by FSB teams inside Kyiv) and all resistance was sure to collapse at the first sign of trouble. However, none of this happened and the elite of the Russian Army were punished mercilessly for their hubris, most notably at Hostomel Airport.

As it may, Putin wanted Kyiv and for whatever we can say of the absolutely catastrophic opening phase of Russia’s war (and by God, it was so incredibly bad), he desired the Ukrainian government to collapse. Since that never happened, Putin has had to revise his preferences for the war, and then revise these again, and again, and again - in the process relieving no less than five (possibly six) theatre commanders of their posts, a list that includes the Butcher of Aleppo, Aleksandr Dvornikov - the Kremlin’s blue-eyed boy for all matters relating to genocide.

As the Russian armed forces struggle to reach even the reduced objectives and as the Ukrainian forces are now counter-attacking, I notice that the Russian invaders have become entirely reactive - they no longer dictate where the fighting should occur and when. For instance, when Ukraine broadcasted their plans to counter-attack towards Kherson, Russia drew down the resources for their offensives in Donbas and rushed these to the south to counter the Ukrainian initiative.

As the Russians crammed forces across the River Dnipro, Ukrainians simply applied their long-range artillery to destroy the sole remaining bridge there (the Antonivskyy bridge) and the Russians on the western bank of the Dnipro are now stuck and cut off from their lines of communication. In the mean while, Ukrainian forces started counter-attacking towards Izium and Russia lack the reserves to respond. Nor can Russia redeploy their forces in Kherson, because the bridge is down and the entire area is now a death trap.

But how does all of this translate into a response on your question? On the one side of the coin, it is legitimate to argue that Russia have already lost the war and that it is purely their preponderance in materiel that afford them to continue purely as a face-saving effort. But I understand that the psychology of conflict outcomes resides in a rarefied atmosphere and there may be those who prefer a more concrete indication of outcome.

To those, I believe that the Russians’ lack of reserves and initiative will cause the issue to come to a head before the end of this year, perhaps even before winter. Whichever way, it is only a matter of time - Russia’s defeat in Ukraine is now inevitable and I’m sure that Putin regrets the entire affair deeply.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

I’m quoting the director of the CIA. Maybe you wish to address that

Well that's easy: the red line was never crossed as Ukraine is not a member of NATO, nor was any such membership imminent or even possible due to the ongoing war in the Donbass.

But the Director was wrong anyway since, if that line had actually been crossed, Russia would have done absolutely nothing, just like it's doing nothing about Finland and Sweden. Or how it did nothing about Estonia, Lithuania, etc.

[EEGator]

That’s a lie.

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus

[Brellium]

India and China will buy Russian gas/oil at a heavy discount. The Russians can’t afford to cut off supply to zero either since they have nothing else to export other than vodka and crime.

They don't even export Vodka, if we wanted Russian Vodka all we need to do is cut Seagram's with anti-freeze. Everyone knows the best Vodka comes from Poland not Russia.

The only export Russia has other than gas/oil is war crimes.

[Kazan]

lol...How can Russia possibly lose the war? Has whoever wrote this looked at a map of Ukraine? The Russians gain/liberate more and more territory DAILY. The Russians will control everything east of the Dnieper river and the entire Black Sea coastline. That area comprised 80% of Ukraine's GDP.

These delusional spins are just a way of the Biden regime and "liberal world order" to try to save face in the only aspect of the war they can control -- the western media.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

“That’s a lie!”

Woah, what impressive numbers! Definitely a power house economy. They’re almost as high as Italy!

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ita

[MalPearce]

I think it could ho either way but the question “whose interests are served by dragging it out” the view of the ordinary Ukrainian ans and Russian Ukrainian joes matter.

The former heard Russian broadcasts before and during the first few weeks that assured them that the mission was about Nazis in Donbas - but then Russia shelled Lviv and other places nowhere near the Donbas.

They then heard Russian Duma lunatics on Russian television talking about 2 generations of punishment of Ukrainians, and 5-15% population reduction to maintain order. That’s basically saying Russia has priced in 6 million civilian casualties and a brutal totalitarian occupation lasting at least twenty years.

So their conclusion is, if winning the war costs a million lives, and forces 8 million Ukrainian people into refugee camps for the duration of the conflict, as bad as that is it’s still better FOR THEM than losing to Russia.

They don’t care how butthurt the West might be about higher gas prices and whatnot. It’s an existential crisis from their point of view. They remember Holodomor. Many would rather die in battle than go through that level of oppression.

The Russian Ukrainian perspective is even more complicated. I know many Russians from Donbas and Zaporozhia who were on Russia’s side in 2014, were on the fence when Zelenskyy got elected, admit Z actually did a lot to secure the arnistice... and are now fully on Ukraine’s side.

A big factor is, they’re the ones who would’ve welcomed a bloodless Russian takeover 3 years ago but now have no town or city to go home to BECAUSE THE SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION HAS DESTROYED THE REGION.

They don’t blame Ukraine for destroying it. They blame Russian separatists, Wagner, Chechens, eastern Russian conscripts, and careerists like the Kremlin installed mutt in Kherson who was such a scumbag before the invasion that he was despised by the Russkies. He couldn’t even get 10% of the popular vote FROM ETHNIC RUSSIANS. But the Kremlin installed him anyway.

So they just do a hollow laugh at the idea Russian collaborators are on their side.

[EEGator]

Don’t misquote me. I didn’t use any exclamation point.
Second, it’s still a lie.

[FreshPrince]

“despite constant promises and predictions of the imminent defeat of Ukraine by Russian propagandists since day 1.”

Yes indeed. Witnessed here on a daily basis. Youd think after a while when “immenient” isnt so “immenient” after all they would be embarressed to keep on saying it. I guess the pay is too good....

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

“Don’t misquote me. I’m a pedantic idiot who took ‘they only export vodka’ literally and tried to pretend Russia has an impressive economy.”

Okay I won’t Putinist.

[EEGator]

You’re a coward.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

“You’re a coward”

That’s right, only EEGator the internet troll is the master of Bushido, the way of the Samurai of internet commando war fighting.

[lakecumberlandvet]

No clear winners. Just a clear loser; the United States.

[pburgh01]

This war was over the day they invaded. Russia is and will lose this. Some of you are deluded and the others who think Russia will win would have been out in the town square in Munich waving your swastika flags in 1933.

[laplata]

India and China have already been buying Russian gas/oil.

India has turned around and sold it back to various countries in Europe and a huge profit.

[kabar]

Germans are notoriously anti-American and Pro-Russia.

The US and the UK are pushing the continuation of the war while France and Germany want a negotiated solution sooner rather than later.

Turkey and Hungary are ignoring the sanctions against Russia. Turkey is scheduling its second buy of the Russian S-400 air defense system. NATO/EU solidarity is already cracking. As winter descends on Europe, the high price of energy will bite hard not only on the people, but also the economy. UK is already in a recession. Macron is placing price caps on energy.

Energy prices in Germany are going thru the roof. Germany is the engine of the European economy.

How long will the US consumer be willing to suffer the pain of the Ukraine War? Will Biden extend the million bbls a day from the SPR beyond September?

Most of the world is not participating in the sanctions against Russia. Our mindless declaration of economic war against Russia and a return to the Cold War have far-reaching consequences that will result in a global political realignment and the destruction of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. NB: For the first time in three years President Xi will leave China on a foreign trip. Destination: Saudi Arabia.

[kabar]

Agreed. Reminder: Russia and Ukraine share a 1,500 mile border. That is a given. Ukraine must establish a modus vivendi with Russia. Not a choice.

[es345st]

Will Russia Lose the War in Ukraine?”

No. Next question.

[lakecumberlandvet]

Did you even read my post?

[kabar]

Define winning as far as Ukraine and Russia are concerned. What would it look like for both?

[SeekAndFind]

RE: No. Next question.

Here’s the follow up question : why no?