Posted on 07/11/2022 4:55:31 AM PDT by tlozo
[I don’t believe estimates of the Russians firing 50K shells per day, on a sustained basis. Maybe they massed fires like that for some peak at some point.]
https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/artillery
That averages out to 150K shells a day. 1/3 of that doesn’t seem like much of a stretch for a 21st century economy with a much bigger surplus (beyond subsistence) than Germany’s a century ago.
“That averages out to 150K shells a day (Germany in WWII). 1/3 of that doesn’t seem like much of a stretch for a 21st century economy”
But that was for an army of millions. The Russian forces in the Ukraine are more like 150K.
A Battalion Tactical Group has six howitzers. They have about 40 BTGs that were actively engaged in the Donbas - about 240 tubes. Every one would have to fire a couple of hundred rounds per day for them to fire 50,000 in a day. The barrels would need to be replaced about every other week.
I just doubt that they are are sustaining that rate of fire, for maintenance, as well as supply reasons, as well as personnel reasons. That would be humping ten tons of shells every day, for every gun crew.
I could see them possibly peaking for a particular operation, but not coordinating hundreds of crews doing that every day.
[But that was for an army of millions. The Russian forces in the Ukraine are more like 150K.
A Battalion Tactical Group has six howitzers. They have about 40 BTGs that were actively engaged in the Donbas - about 240 tubes. Every one would have to fire a couple of hundred rounds per day for them to fire 50,000 in a day. The barrels would need to be replaced about every other week.
I just doubt that they are are sustaining that rate of fire, for maintenance, as well as supply reasons, as well as personnel reasons. That would be humping ten tons of shells every day, for every gun crew.
I could see them possibly peaking for a particular operation, but not coordinating hundreds of crews doing that every day.]
I believe the ten to one ratio of Artillery, even maybe 20-1, at a given time and place. Offense gets to pick the time and place to concentrate, defense has to be everywhere.
It seems that that phase of the war (Russians able to just consistently blast their way through with tube Artillery) may be over, with the new ability of the Ukrainians to disrupt Russian Artillery supply with deep strikes. We will see if Russian forces can counter, or adapt to, that new situation.
I have not heard much about the counter-battery battle, to know if that has shifted as well. The relatively sudden lessening of Russian Artillery fire might also have been precipitated by their Artillery batteries getting hit with newly effective counter battery fire, and them pulling in their horns while they analyze the new threat. That is just a possibility I am considering - I have not seen indications of that (although I have been anticipating some such capability would be forthcoming, as the Ukrainians were being so effectively pummeled by Russian Arty).
“The relatively sudden lessening of Russian Artillery fire”
I just heard that they opened back up on Bakhmut yesterday with heavy fires, so Russian Artillery barrages are still a thing, even if it is changing a bit.
14 Russian ammunition depots (50 fuel trucks at one) and other targets destroyed. Russian air defense including S-400s cannot intercept HIMARS missiles.
Russia’s plans are defeated by a few Western weapons: Ukraine holds its own and Europe’s defenses
https://youtu.be/Ks1ungzdy9o
HUGE explosion as Ukrainian forces blow up Russian weapons warehouse
https://youtu.be/PQXHiya4oTk
[Russians said that it was only salt peter storage. Ha, ha! See and listen to the heavy rounds detonating.]
The Russians have paused somewhat while continuing some attacks on civilian targets in various areas, probably to rearm and to try to organize further changes in tactics. They’ve finally noticed that some of the Ukrainian units fight differently from Russians in some ways and are beginning to copy some of those tactics.
Western weapons and training for some Ukrainian units have greatly enhanced accuracy. 14 Russian depots were just hit with those weapons and training along with at least 50 fuel trucks, several TOCs and other higher value targets.
The Russians are waiting for hundreds of Iranian combat drones and whatever else they can bring to the fight.
Have a look at this piece of work in light of what we’re seeing in some comments.
The Westerners helping Putin’s propaganda war on Ukraine
https://youtu.be/JoYfAYkDqTY?t=288
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eva_Bartlett
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