Replies

Thomas C. Theiner

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1544495879884886017

The sound of russian ammo blowing up in Donetsk.

What does this mean for russian logistics?

A thread:

Since 2014-15 russia built dozens of ammo dumps hidden in civilian buildings near railway stations in the parts of Ukraine it occupies.

russian logistics depots are always close to railways as russia’s military has a serious lack of logistic units, especially transport units. This is compounded by russia’s military being corrupt and technologically backwards, even eschewing things like forklifts or cranes.

So russian supplies and ammo are loaded by hand onto trains, transported towards the front, unloaded there by hand, loaded onto trucks by hand, and then driven to the frontline units, where it is unloaded again by hand. It’s time consuming. No other army is so backwards.

So how did russian ammo supply in Donbas work until Ukraine received M142 HIMARS with long-range GMLRS rockets and highly accurate PzH 2000, AHS Krab, and CAESAR self-propelled howitzers? Well: 1) in russia 2,000 to 4,000 of tons of ammo were loaded onto a train

2) the train entered Ukraine, stopped at various points 30-40 km from the front, ammo was unloaded and stored nearby 3) then frontline units sent their trucks to pick up the ammo they needed The same applied for fuel, spares, food, etc.

So dependent are the russians on railways that they have 28,500 railway troops tasked with repairing and building railways. Like i.e. this bridge they built over the Oskil river to supply their planned upcoming offensive from Izium towards Sloviansk.

When russia’s military can’t access railways then its entire logistics system collapses. The russian advance East of Kyiv failed when the russians couldn’t capture the railways passing through Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts. With cities like Nizhyn, Chernihiv and Sumy stubbornly

defended by Ukrainian troops, russia had to truck its supplies to its troops East of Kyiv... and that failed spectacularly, as russian troops can’t move more than 90-100 km from their supply depots and at that range russia can only supply its units for defensive operations.

The distance from railways in russia to Brovary outside Kyiv is 350 km... 300 km of which were swarming with Ukrainian special forces and partisans looking to blow up russian supply columns (photo). Now in Donbas, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia russia can supply its troops by train.

This allows russia to bring forward the 10,000s of tons of artillery ammo it expends every week; and send the replacement tanks, howitzers, etc. needed to replace russia’s immense material losses, and the needed fuel. But now the russian ammo depots and supply points

are within range of artillery and rockets. AHS Krab, PzH 2000, and CAESAR can use base bleed projectiles with 40 km range (photo: a CAESAR firing a base bleed projectile). Furthermore these howitzers’ use modern fire control systems, which use GPS to establish their own

position and then use the target’s GPS coordinates to calculate the correct elevation and deflection of the barrel, then automatically move the barrel into position. All three systems also use radar to measure a fired projectile’s speed & adjust the barrel after each shot.

Never before had Ukraine artillery with such accuracy and such range. This allows Ukraine to hit russian supply depots up to 35 km behind the front with pinpoint accuracy. And thanks to 10,000s of Ukrainian patriots in the russian occupied territories Ukraine knows the

coordinates of EVERY russian ammo depot. And now Ukraine also received GMLRS. GMLRS retains full accuracy up to 85 km. This allows Ukraine to land a rocket precisely onto a building 85 km away and set the fuze to detonate the 50 pounds of PBX-109 inside the building.

And if it is a large target (i.e. a warehouse) then Ukraine can hit it even if it is further away then 85 km. These two new artillery capabilities have two effects: 1) russia is right now losing 1,000s of tons of ammo 2) russia can’t store ammo within 100 km of the front

Every destroyed depot reduces the ammo available to russia’s massive number of artillery systems at the front. And russia has to replace this lost ammo. First it can’t produce as much as it uses and loses, so russia is already shipping old Soviet ammo from Belarus to Donbas.

Secondly russia can’t bring this ammo within range of Ukrainian artillery and GMLRS... and has to stop the trains now 90-100 km away from the front or else the ammo dump and train will be destroyed by Ukrainian artillery. Ammo and supplies 100 km from the front means

that russia again has to rely on trucks to supply its frontline units. But russia already lost at least 1,200+ of its truck fleet and the remainder has been in use for months now - and russia’s famous lack of maintenance is surely taking a huge toll on the remaining trucks.

So how will russian logistics “work” now? 1) trains will stop 100 km from the front and ammo will be unloaded by hand 2) trucks will be loaded by hand and then drive to the front. Loading by hand takes hours and driving 100 km in a rear combat zone takes more hours

Worse for russia - russian trucks carry less tonnage then Western military trucks and unlike Western ammo russian ammo comes in bulky wooden boxes.

• russian ammo trucks transport mostly wood
• Western ammo trucks (photo) transport almost only bang

3) the russian trucks finally arrive at the front 4) the ammo is unloaded (by hand) 5) the trucks return to the railheads At this distance russian truckers will struggle to make more than one supply run per day... and if the russians don’t plan their supply runs perfectly

then some units will get too little ammo, others too much - which is worse: because what do you with the extra ammo? Drop it on the ground or have the trucks stay with the unit until the ammo is needed? If you drop it on the ground and the unit has to move... well then the

ammo is lost. If you keep the trucks with the unit, then no one is driving back to get more ammo. And while NATO armies use software and AI to plan their supply runs, russians use officers’ guts... this wouldn’t matter if russia had enough trucks, but having lost so many

trucks of the already few ones it began the war with russia is now even less capable to supply units 100 km from railways. russia is a 20th century military with 19th century logistics... and now it is fighting an army receiving 21st century weapons. It will take time, but

hile NLAW, Javelin and Stinger helped Ukraine win the Battle of Kyiv; now CAESAR, AHS Krab, PzH 2000 and especially GMLRS will help Ukraine win the Battle for Donbas and the Battle for Kherson. Because: Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.

Ukraine: military situation update with maps, July 5, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••denotes transcribed dialogue.

———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
Russia Seems To Be Preparing The Vital Kerch Bridge For Missile Attacks
Deployment of decoy barges and smokescreens implies Russia is preparing for a possible attack on its highly prized Kerch Strait Bridge.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-seems-to-be-preparing-the-vital-kerch-bridge-for-missile-attacks

Ukraine Situation Report: Russian Forces Expand Hold On The Donbas
Improved coordination among Russian units has allowed some progress westward against Ukrainian resistance.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-forces-expand-hold-on-the-donbas

Russia, Ukraine Take Turns Bombing Snake Island
The Russians didn’t want weapons to fall into Ukrainian hands. Ukraine wanted to destroy them before Russia tried to retrieve them.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-ukraine-take-turns-bombing-snake-island

Excerpt:
On July 1, Russians hit the island with phosphorous bombs, said Ryzhenko, destroying at least four Pantsir and three Tor short-range air defense systems, known by the NATO reporting names SA-22 Greyhound and SA-15 Gauntlet. They also blew up some signals intelligence equipment used to identify “a wide spectrum of electromagnetic signatures from the Ukrainian coastline,” Ryzhenko said ... The Russians, he said, left behind a Pantsir air defense system, a P-18 Spoon REST D radar system and a Tornado multi-launch rocket system (MLRS).

———————————————————————————————————————
••Kazakhstan
Russia blocking oil export - 67-69 million tons per year. Leaderships of K is acting independent so Russia sends message - creating lot of Paine in K.

••Norway, Spetsbergen:
Clash over Spetsbergen. Belonged to Norway, taken by Russia and returned in 1920, but Russia kept right to extract resources. Norway blocking sanctioned suppliers to mines on the island. Settled the boundary line and returned some area in 2010 because Russia wanted to exploit oil & gas resources there. Now with the block on supplies to the island, Russia is threatening to revoke the boundary agreement.

••RU Real Estate Market
Price of apts dropped 2.2% in Moscow. Where most of money and resources are concentrated there. Mortgage interest rates reduced, as a result mortgages increased as people took advantage. Russian Government trying to keep economy going with new construction. 60% jump in economy, relative to pre-war. Moscow economy is a big multiplier on the rest of Russian economy.

••Ukraine Internal Situation:
Was 1st time riff between Zelenski and ZSU General Staff over their order that men needed permit to leave their towns. Big outcry that this makes no sense. Zelenski asked politely that he need to be consulted before these sorts of decisions are made by the General Staff. Also another problem is that the Head of the ZSU General Staff became more popular because of the war and Zelenski sees this as a rivalry to his personal political situation.

••Immediate Orc Plans:
Once their rest and consolidation ends, they plan to squeeze UA troops from he Donetsk region. UA still holds quit a bit of probably more or less ~50%. ButUA has good defensive positions around Kramatorsk and Slovyansk - may take quite some time to exploit. Next goals would be Zaporizhzhia because UA defensive forces there are are relatively weaker than everywhere else - from the Orc perspective. Then Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih. After those goals would come Odessa and Dnipro.

———————————————————————————————————————
Summary: No major changes.
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: No changes.
- Popasna/Lysychansk area: Russian troops made some gains near village Spirne.
- Svitlodarsk area: no changes.
- Donetsk West: no changes
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.

1. Kharkiv: No changes.
••North of Kharkiv: artillery ping pong seems to have increased generally.
••Orcs tried to attack in westerly direction, but not successful.

2. Izyum bridgehead. No changes.
••Orcs continuing attacks without any success so far.

3. Popasna/Lysychansk area: Ukrainian troops still hold on to Verkhyokamyanske, Grygorivka, Spirne and section of the road from Spirne to Bahmut which provides good defensive position.
••Orcs made some westerly progress, claiming captured village of Spirne - no confirmation. Other attacks not successful.

4. Svtilodarsk area: No changes.

5. West of Donetsk: Avdiyivka and Maryinka. No changes.
••Artillery ping pong continues

6. Vugledar: No changes.

7. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. No changes.

8. Kherson bridgehead: No changes.