Posted on 06/06/2022 1:09:28 PM PDT by blam
U.S. natural gas fundamentals remain bullish as above-normal temperatures drive cooling demand and dwindling supplies that would’ve been used for the next winter season cause market tightness, sending futures for July delivery soaring 9.5% to $9.340/mmbtu as of 1315 ET.
Houston-based energy firm Criterion Research sheds more color on the natgas fundamentals driving prices higher. They report a combination of factors, including above-average temperatures in the Lower U.S. 48, natgas demand, slumping natgas production, and below-average national stockpiles, which have driven July contracts above $9.
The Lower 48’s weather outlook has come in warmer this morning, with the latest models showing a warmer than average forecast for mid-June (versus the ten-year average.)
The week ending 6/17 should bring impressive natural gas demand numbers of 65.5 Bcf/d, marking the highest we’ve seen this summer.
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The warmer trend can especially be seen in states such as Texas, where ERCOT is forecasting record-high summer generation.
While the demand side of the equation comes in strong, U.S. natural gas production has been struggling since the start of June. Volumes quickly fell after June 1 and have remained off of the May highs.
Although general production growth is widely expected through year-end by most energy analyses, the speed at which that production comes online is the main concern. Higher production rates will be needed to fill national storage inventories before the winter, especially if summer temperatures continue to come in above-average.
At Criterion, the latest iteration of our long-term supply & demand forecast, we have adjusted our Fall EOS target to a lower 3.19 Tcf, which marked a drop from the last forecast for a 3.25 Tcf level.
The current situation may remain uber bullish and could push natgas prices even higher as summer begins and driving season is underway, which puts upward pressure on energy markets.
Higher U.S. demand versus Europe has compressed the E.U.-U.S. natgas spread (1mo ahead vs. futs).
And in fact, US natgas futures are now trading at a premium to Day-Ahead EU NatGas prices.
Soaring natgas prices will only mean the cost of power will rise. We outlined the cities where power bills will skyrocket this summer as threats of rolling blackouts increase.
“Factors” my ass, it’s all part of the Green New Deal liquidation of the kulaks.
Big heating problems coming next fall and winter.
Man-made storm. The writing was on the wall when DSIC announced exports to Europe to cover for loss of Russian gas.
The hits keep acomin’.
Not to worry, my FRiend. Global warming will make heating unnecessary.
Biden has a solution, instead of calling for you to wear a sweater he’s going to send a book of matches and tell you to start your home on fire for warmth.
When do people take to the streets and DEMAND these Incompetent governments resign
It will be a major crisis, but just add it to the list of a dozen or so crises Biden has created.
A gas shortage won’t send people to the streets. However the coming food shortage just might.
It’s gonna be a rough winter.
Here’s the bad news... Biden and this thugs have MORE THAN TWO YEARS LEFT TO MESS UP THE COUNTRY.
Nah...it will take a pet food shortage to cause riots..
BKMK
Oh no! The forecast is for three days below average then three days above average!!
Doesn’t anybody know “average” is the maximum?
When does the crack in the dam holding back all the resentment of the American citizenry open up, and bursts forth to cause some affirmative performance on the part of the American economy? The “Greens” have put a stranglehold on the free market in regards to energy, with their innumerable regulations and prohibitions.
This nation should be getting on a wartime mobilization basis to BREAK these chokepoints, and recognize that the problems are not just economic, but existential.
We have the resources, we possess the means, only the lack of will to deploy everything at our disposal is missing.
I miss Trump. I even miss Bush-43, a little. Hell, it might go better if we had Billy Jeff back, as he was amenable to some degree of discourse and compromise.
These guys, Obama, Biden, and the whole crew, there is no talking to them. Blind, tone-deaf, and committed to some mysterious ideology that has never been proven to work.
Plenty of natural gas out there. All it takes are a few more rigs to stand up.
FIXED!
40% of US electricity comes from burning gas.
And this is how you know neocons hate Americans.
Russia gas is nearly off the market, US gas being shipped to Europe to make up the shortfall.
This globally priced commodity has tripled in price...and doubled since the Russian sanctions.
Americans should hate the neocons back...and make them pay.
Check the 52 week range.
This is pure prog revenge on America.
.
NG1:COM
Generic 1st ‘NG’ Future
9.37USD/MMBtu+0.84+9.89%
OPEN
8.75
PREV CLOSE
8.52
VOLUME
121,990
DAY RANGE
8.739.40
52 WEEK RANGE
2.71 - 9.45
Remember, “Biden did this!”
And if the GOP controls either the House or the Senate, or both, the MSM/Democrats will blame everything on them.
They're setting up all these disasters so they have something to divert attention from the scandals the Republicans will uncover if they start any investigations.
They'll divert attention by setting off an excrement storm of finger pointing. Then they'll claim that all the GOP investigations aren't doing anything to help alleviate all the problems they caused.
Because of help from the MSM, this strategy will work. Also because the GOP doesn't know how to handle anything like this.
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