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The Battle For Donbas Will Be A Tough Fight For Ukraine
19FortyFive ^ | 4/16/2022 | RET LT COL Daniel Davis

Posted on 04/17/2022 6:06:54 AM PDT by whyilovetexas111

Why the Battle for Donbas will be very different: While the world nervously awaits the opening salvo of the Battle of Donbas, many in the West are optimistic. Others believe that the exceptional military performance demonstrated by the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) in repelling – and then driving out – Russian forces around Kyiv, will reprise their effort and again blunt Russia’s offensive in the Donbas and eventually outright win the war.

(Excerpt) Read more at 19fortyfive.com ...


TOPICS: Government; History; Politics
KEYWORDS: 19fortyfivesux; blogpimp; donbas; nato; onthebrink; putin; retread; russia; ukraine; war
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To: BiglyCommentary

Agree. The switchblades coming into the front will make life very unhappy for the Russians entering the donbass.

Russians already know this.

They should have attacked a week or two ago before the switchblades arrived.

The switchblade is just one of a whole arsenal of stand off weapons that will work in the open country of the donbass.

Its really a bad idea for the russians to wait because the ukranians will just load up more stand off weapons

But they’re waiting.

The longer they wait —the worse it looks for the russians


21 posted on 04/17/2022 7:14:10 AM PDT by ckilmer (qui)
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To: whyilovetexas111

Bookmarking this thread for critical review of the analysis posited here


22 posted on 04/17/2022 7:18:00 AM PDT by silverleaf (“Freedom ultimately means the right of other people to do things that you disagree with”. T. Sowell )
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To: Bruce Campbells Chin

“With that being said, the author has a good point about the Russians being able to concentrate on a single axis of advance.”

One thing this author misses is that Ukraine’s strategy has not been to hold and defend territory. Whenever the Russian’s have advanced in numbers the Ukrainians have retreated (with the exception of the cities where the defenders have a huge advantage).

The problem for Russia is that the more territory they control the worse off they are. Ukraine’s strategy has been to slowly bleed the Russians. Striking only when they can pick off a supply column or defensive position.


23 posted on 04/17/2022 7:19:01 AM PDT by Renfrew
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To: whyilovetexas111

Well, I stopped right here

“ Others believe that the exceptional military performance demonstrated by the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) in repelling – and then driving out – Russian forces around Kyiv, will reprise their effort and again blunt Russia’s offensive in the Donbas and eventually outright win the war.”

Name an action the Ukes did that “drove Russian forces out of Kiev”

Esp since the Russians never intended to enter Kiev

Only besiege the city and make a show of force to keep Uke military from redeploying to the actual battlefronts in the South ( now after the fall of Mariupol shifting to the East)


24 posted on 04/17/2022 7:23:58 AM PDT by silverleaf (“Freedom ultimately means the right of other people to do things that you disagree with”. T. Sowell )
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To: Terry L Smith

“donbass is one of those pockets desiring zeparation from the rest of the Ukraine republic, BEFORE the invasion.”

Just a question, how much of that was due to Russia, Russia, Russia meddling in the affairs of Ukraine? Not like Putin wouldn’t stir the pot whenever he liked.


25 posted on 04/17/2022 7:25:52 AM PDT by oldvirginian (Sex is like the game of Bridge......if you don't have a good partner you better have a good hand.)
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To: Renfrew

In the US Army there are four combat arms branches: Infantry, Artillery, Armor, and Air Defense Artillery. Only two of those close with and destroy the enemy while occupying the terrain they held: Infantry and Armor. Both are very vulnerable. Neither is obsolete. One has to coordinate a combined arms battle to achieve success. Air assets, artillery support, smoke, support by fire positions, use of terrain masking, mass at the decisive point, etc.


26 posted on 04/17/2022 7:26:55 AM PDT by Monterrosa-24 (To the barricades !!!)
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To: whyilovetexas111

Right now the Russian forces have managed to push the UA even further back in the Izum salient on the western flank.

The Russian 106 TD, which was part of the Kiev offensive, has joined the fray - likely the least damaged of the units - so it gets thrown in first.


27 posted on 04/17/2022 7:28:07 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: Karl Spooner

Now now, chubba bubba there is one of the good guys we are supplying with lethal weapons to win the war…once the Russians are defeated, the good guys can continue the war they started in 2014 to cleanse the Ukraine population of traitors, collaborators, anyone who promoted negotiations with Russia. and anyone who can’t or won’t speak Ukrainian properly


28 posted on 04/17/2022 7:30:22 AM PDT by silverleaf (“Freedom ultimately means the right of other people to do things that you disagree with”. T. Sowell )
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To: Gen.Blather

Add: that they did not have an overall commander until Pootie just last week appointed the Butcher.


29 posted on 04/17/2022 7:30:53 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: allendale

. It took a huge emotional toll on them.
———-
Having been in a war, I observed war largely has less effects on unbelievers, those effected most are those that believe in our God almighty.

Exactly what is so troubling about this conflict, war, war, war, not one crying out for Peace. Biden and the west are willing to fight Vlad down to the last Ukrainian. Something stinks, both Zelensky, Vlad and Biden are evil and corrupted.

Pray for the Russian and Ukrainian people, they are suffering with corrupted leadership.


30 posted on 04/17/2022 7:31:14 AM PDT by delta7
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To: ought-six

Things like the A10 and attack helicopters is why Soviet and now Russian formations all have integrated gun-missile air defense vehicles in their units. Things like the Tunguska and Pantsir.


31 posted on 04/17/2022 7:33:29 AM PDT by buwaya (Strategic imperatives )
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To: whyilovetexas111
Most of the videos published are from Stugnas and are certainly not “point blank range”. Sometimes the missiles are in the air for 8-10 seconds. Javelin has an even longer reach. If the Russians want to fight a maneuver war, they’ll have to wait until the ground dries out. Going now would force them to stay on the roads. Mean time, western aid flows in and tanks captured by the Ukrainian Army get refurbished and put in the line.

I would expect Ukraine to trade space for time and continue to interdict supply lines via drones. Even the little Switchblade can take out a fuel truck.

32 posted on 04/17/2022 7:33:39 AM PDT by Dilbert56
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To: Travis McGee

Lays out the strategies of both sides, the cost/benefits, etc.
————-
Vlad will pour everything into the Donbass. Read his war speech ( most have not), fulfilling the Minsk agreements that Ukraine disregarded is a primary objective.

Vlad cares not about casualties, he will easily bury the dead then move on. Ukraine will do the same, then have to give the Donbass provinces their desired Independence, then lastly go begging for a decade for US taxpayers to rebuild his country…10 percent to Joe of course.


33 posted on 04/17/2022 7:37:01 AM PDT by delta7
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To: ought-six

But they would be extremely vulnerable to air attack by such as the A-10.

A-10s are not as effective as the internet portrays and would likely be shot down quickly by modern Manpads, Buks, 30mm cannons, and others. This isn’t Afghan.

The so called Hwy of Death long attributed by media and internet savants to the A-10 was untrue. The after Battle assessment did not even credit A-10s. It was F-16s etc that did the lions share of the damage with their bomb runs.


34 posted on 04/17/2022 7:39:18 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: ckilmer

The US needs to load up on artillery rounds of which they are running out of - and because most of the fighting along the front lines is artillery


35 posted on 04/17/2022 7:41:00 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: silverleaf

Esp since the Russians never intended to enter Kiev


and you got that piece of intel from the Russian high command?


36 posted on 04/17/2022 7:42:50 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: oldvirginian
Just a question, how much of that was due to Russia, Russia, Russia meddling in the affairs of Ukraine? Not like Putin wouldn’t stir the pot whenever he liked.

Viktor Yanukovich was the former governor of Donetsk Oblast. He was widely popular in the Donbas, particularly in his efforts as the democratically and fairly elected Ukraine president to make Russian and Ukrainian both official languages.

His illegal removal from office in a McCain/CIA-led coup likely did more to strengthen the region's quest for independence than anything Putin did.

37 posted on 04/17/2022 7:43:30 AM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President 2024)
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To: icclearly

Correct. If you listen to the propaganda from CNN and the western media.
———-
Exactly, reading 60 percent of the worlds( non western ) coverage you get a clearer picture. Ukraine is losing badly. Men, arms, aircraft, weapons, Vlad has effectively demilitarized them already. It will take a decade to recover. Assuming they are not admitted to NATO ( Zelensky said he would NOT apply for NATO), after the war , the Ukrainian people will wonder when burying their dead, what the war was all about ( giving the Donbass provinces their Independence).

Make no mistake, Vlad will secure the Donbass provinces, at all costs.


38 posted on 04/17/2022 7:45:41 AM PDT by delta7
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To: delta7

That all depends on whether Putin has the manpower and machines to put into the fight, and whether they can overcome the Ukes, which have advanced ATGMs and precise artillery. Which raises the point of concentration of force - the more concentrated the point of the attack, the richer the target area. That applies even more so to logistics vehicles and artillery.

Anyway, it looks like another three weeks or so before tracked vehicles can move much offroad.


39 posted on 04/17/2022 7:45:56 AM PDT by buwaya (Strategic imperatives )
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To: delta7

Thats if Vlad has the resources to trade for “victory”. The main Russian problem is manpower. Not a Ukrainian problem.


40 posted on 04/17/2022 7:48:11 AM PDT by buwaya (Strategic imperatives )
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