.
Posted on 04/17/2022 6:06:54 AM PDT by whyilovetexas111
Why the Battle for Donbas will be very different: While the world nervously awaits the opening salvo of the Battle of Donbas, many in the West are optimistic. Others believe that the exceptional military performance demonstrated by the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) in repelling – and then driving out – Russian forces around Kyiv, will reprise their effort and again blunt Russia’s offensive in the Donbas and eventually outright win the war.
(Excerpt) Read more at 19fortyfive.com ...
“a former tank commander.”
Looks like tank warfare and tactics have changed significantly since he was in a tank. “Old generals fight the last war...”
Welcome to FR.
yep
Overall good read but in that long piece he only mentions hunter killer drones used by Ukrainian forces once. His head is not fully into the new game.
“Looks like tank warfare and tactics have changed significantly since he was in a tank. “Old generals fight the last war...””
Yes and no. I worked on the M1A1 and the army was trying to cancel the tank from my first day. That was an attempt on the leadership’s part to recognize that we needed firepower we could get to a fight by air and the biggest vulnerability of the tank was its logistics train. The tank’s outstanding performance in the Gulf War was due to the fact we got them there on two ships, either of which could have been sunk had Iraq had a submarine. Perhaps because the US couldn’t cancel the tank they incorporated it into a combined arms regime that has worked amazingly well. This is something the Russians have failed to do...sending tanks as they have with no backup ground forces and no covering air power. That’s something the US hasn’t done in any of the US conflicts so far. (Periodically militaries have to relearn lessons they already paid for but I haven’t seen any of this yet. But Biden’s term is still young and we’re busy integrating “trans” people into the military.)
Russia has appeared to be incompetent but there are reasons for that which we can’t blame on the tanks. The organization of their military is top down with no decision making at the bottom or middle. They built a force to fight NATO and not Ukraine and they thought Ukrainians would greet them as liberators because the Ukrainians were being held prisoner by “Nazis.” This is a case of Putin believing Bovine excrement and everyone else saying, “Yes sir!”
Putin is a gambler. He’s also old and doesn’t give a rat’s petoot. Therefore, as soon as he sees a target worthy of a tactical nuke he’ll raise the ante. I certainly wish we had a bad old mean Trump instead of a wishy-washy Biden. A few mean Tweets probably would have stopped Putin way back when...but that ship has sailed.
donbass is one of those pockets desiring zeparation from the rest of the Ukraine republic, BEFORE the invasion.
transpose this fight to Long Island, NY, during the American Revolution.
the place was thick with Tories, even today , the celebration of the return of the British to the town of Riverhead is still noted.
donbass might be more bitter than Ukrainian vs Russian. thete is a different ideology at play.
The silicon chip and clever engineering has changed everything. Entire surface fleets and tank formations will be annihilated by a nerd sitting at a console in a bunker far, far from the field of battle. Many young sailors and soldiers will die horrible deaths before the “battleship admirals” and “hidebound generals” are replaced.
This analysis assumes that NATO/EU will not pour in vast quantities of of weaponry along with disguised military advisers/troops into the battle. Also, Russian logistics and stockpiles in Russia are likely subject to direct attack, also.
But by then it’s possible a lot of what gets put on the field will be autonomous “things” with no humans.
I know a predator operator who killed Taliban in Afghanistan on her shift and then went home to cook dinner for her family. The psychological stress has to handled.
Actually a very good analysis, and pretty balanced. Lays out the strategies of both sides, the cost/benefits, etc.
Yeah I just saw Danny this morning. We used to sing in the choir together at mclean bible church before it went woke.
> I certainly wish we had a bad old mean Trump <
You betcha. And I’m guessing that the Ukrainians and the EU feel the same way, although they’d never admit it.
Putin invades Crimea when Obama was president.
Putin behaves when Trump was president.
Putin invades Ukraine when Biden was president.
Very similar situation for Air Force personnel who ran killer drones in Afghanistan from a site just outside of Las Vegas, Nevada. They saw everything in “real time” a half a world away. It took a huge emotional toll on them. War is always about killing and will always be dehumanizing. Anyone who serves in war, whatever the side, remains affected for life. Great warriors like Douglass MacArthur came to absolutely loathe war and wanted it outlawed. He of course knew there would always be war but his insights and wisdom have been rapidly forgotten.
> Many young sailors and soldiers will die horrible deaths before the “battleship admirals” and “hidebound generals” are replaced. <
True that. Part of the problem is that admirals and generals get prestige and promotions by commanding large formations. They love those large formations (aircraft carrier groups and tank divisions).
I’d suggest calling those generals “cavalry generals” to go along with “battleship admirals”. Cavalry was very effective in the 1800s. Then the machine gun tore them apart in WW I.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armies/%3famp
With that being said, the author has a good point about the Russians being able to concentrate on a single axis of advance. Had they begin the war that way, the outcome might have been different.
But they have two problems now. The first is that a lot of their first line units have been decimated, and the tip of their spear is a lot more blunt than it should be. So that opportunity may have been missed.
The second problem is that the Ukrainians, due in part to excellent western intelligence, will know exactly where the focal point of the Russian attack will be. It is extraordinarily difficult to attack prepared positions when the enemy knows exactly when and where you will be striking. To be successful in that situation, you really need overwhelming force because the enemy will be ready with their own reserves.
I just don't think the Russians have a large enough superiority in forces remaining to make that work. And if it becomes a war of attrition, Ukraine has the advantage unless Russia is willing to do mass conscription, which does not seem likely.
.
“ Russia has appeared to be incompetent….”
Correct. If you listen to the propaganda from CNN and the western media.
I agree.
Russia has been wedded to armor since WWII, and it is still stuck on fighting “The Great Patriotic War.” The world has come a long way since 1945, and modern AT weaponry has evolved exponentially since the days of the Panzerfaust.
Tanks, if they are to be employed in force in any modern engagement, might do well in desert warfare, where mobility is key. But they would be extremely vulnerable to air attack by such as the A-10.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.