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“a former tank commander.”
Looks like tank warfare and tactics have changed significantly since he was in a tank. “Old generals fight the last war...”
Welcome to FR.
donbass is one of those pockets desiring zeparation from the rest of the Ukraine republic, BEFORE the invasion.
transpose this fight to Long Island, NY, during the American Revolution.
the place was thick with Tories, even today , the celebration of the return of the British to the town of Riverhead is still noted.
donbass might be more bitter than Ukrainian vs Russian. thete is a different ideology at play.
This analysis assumes that NATO/EU will not pour in vast quantities of of weaponry along with disguised military advisers/troops into the battle. Also, Russian logistics and stockpiles in Russia are likely subject to direct attack, also.
Actually a very good analysis, and pretty balanced. Lays out the strategies of both sides, the cost/benefits, etc.
Yeah I just saw Danny this morning. We used to sing in the choir together at mclean bible church before it went woke.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armies/%3famp
With that being said, the author has a good point about the Russians being able to concentrate on a single axis of advance. Had they begin the war that way, the outcome might have been different.
But they have two problems now. The first is that a lot of their first line units have been decimated, and the tip of their spear is a lot more blunt than it should be. So that opportunity may have been missed.
The second problem is that the Ukrainians, due in part to excellent western intelligence, will know exactly where the focal point of the Russian attack will be. It is extraordinarily difficult to attack prepared positions when the enemy knows exactly when and where you will be striking. To be successful in that situation, you really need overwhelming force because the enemy will be ready with their own reserves.
I just don't think the Russians have a large enough superiority in forces remaining to make that work. And if it becomes a war of attrition, Ukraine has the advantage unless Russia is willing to do mass conscription, which does not seem likely.
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Bookmarking this thread for critical review of the analysis posited here
Well, I stopped right here
“ Others believe that the exceptional military performance demonstrated by the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) in repelling – and then driving out – Russian forces around Kyiv, will reprise their effort and again blunt Russia’s offensive in the Donbas and eventually outright win the war.”
Name an action the Ukes did that “drove Russian forces out of Kiev”
Esp since the Russians never intended to enter Kiev
Only besiege the city and make a show of force to keep Uke military from redeploying to the actual battlefronts in the South ( now after the fall of Mariupol shifting to the East)
Right now the Russian forces have managed to push the UA even further back in the Izum salient on the western flank.
The Russian 106 TD, which was part of the Kiev offensive, has joined the fray - likely the least damaged of the units - so it gets thrown in first.
I would expect Ukraine to trade space for time and continue to interdict supply lines via drones. Even the little Switchblade can take out a fuel truck.
In the Kyiv fight, there was little requirement for UAF troops to conduct coordinated maneuvers. Their primary task was to use small unit detachments that could move discreetly throughout the city, hitting Russian armor in the rear and flanks and then disappearing back into the urban terrain. Their objective was to destroy Russian armor, which they did with remarkable effectiveness.
In the Donbas fight, however, they won’t have high-rise buildings from which to fire down on the tanks, they won’t be able to engage from point-blank range, and it will be much more difficult to catch Russian units unawares.
Few high rises, indeed. But a quick survey of the countryside of that region reveals agricultural fields everywhere outside of the cities. And most of the fields are bordered with trees. Take a look at Google maps around, say, Pavlohrad with the satellite view on.) Trees that antitank teams can hide in very easily and have nice, relatively flat, open fields of fire. Trying to go cross country could prove very expensive for the Russians. And there are lots of trees - too many to smash all the likely firing positions by artillery fire or airstrikes.
“… eventually outright win the war.”
I think a better term is “force the Russians out”.
The state that their county will be could not be considered a “win”.
God bless them.
“A careful – and honest – assessment of the situation on the ground in Ukraine, however, should dispel such notions.”
Conclusion
Only the people of Ukraine and their president can decide what the best course of action is for Ukraine. They can choose to try and continue the war and fight for eventual victory, but they will have to acknowledge they are taking a major risk that they could suffer a military defeat instead. Even an eventual victory would come at a profoundly high cost to the Ukrainian population and cities.
A negotiated settlement could end the fighting in the near term but come at the cost of the loss of some eastern territory. There are no easy choices here, and whatever Zelensky and the people of Ukraine decide, they are going to pay a heavy price; there’s just no way around that ugly fact.
Prayer up for Ukraine. May God protect them and give them strength. And may he foil the plans of the Russians and drive them out of Ukraine’s land.
We've given the Ukrainians false hope to drag this war out in order to hurt Russia. It's disgraceful.
a good balanced article , thanks. i doubt the rooskies will try to cut off the entire Uke donbass armies as that would create difficult supply lines.. go slow with ground and pound.
maybe 3 months to 1 year to take all donbass.
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ONe source says the offensive has started with a new attack in the popasna city. This guy seems to have the best and most detailed donbass info among the youtube mappers which seem to come and go almost daily.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8TYf9sdJcs
This article makes the assumption that Russian soldier morale will be/remain high and that they are competent in method/equipment. We have seen repeatedly throughout history that Russia is neither.
Russia’s equipment (including their newer equipment) has been shown to be junk (again). We have seen Russian armored vehicles with tree logs for “armor” and homemade “cages” on top of tanks to “deflect” missiles. We have seen Ukraine capture dozens of Russian vehicles due to dead batteries and flat tires. All of this is highly pathetic. The incredible corruption in the military and oligarch-controlled industry has left them wanting. Meanwhile, Ukraine is being armed to the teeth by advanced Western machinery. Now Ukraine is getting big artillery guns, helicopters, and Reaper/Kamikaze drones. They can hit Russia harder than ever suddenly and quietly. Russians are in for a nasty surprise.
This article appears to suggest that it’s just Russia vs Ukraine blindly going into battle. I believe that NATO/Europe/US is providing Ukraine with extensive intelligence regarding Russian troop movement and equipment/supply areas. There is simply no way all of Ukraine’s successes in hitting so many Generals/supply lines/etc. is due to pure luck.
All Russia has ever shown competence in is bombing cities to the ground and shooting everyone in sight. There is more pain for both Russian soldiers and Ukraine, but I think Ukraine is on strong legs, while Russian legs grow weaker.