Posted on 04/10/2022 6:21:22 AM PDT by blam
Ukraine is one of the world's top exporters of corn, sunflower oil, and wheat. Disruptions stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine have stoked fears the war-torn country could experience a 50% decline in crop output this year, according to Bloomberg.
Pixabay
Forecast data from ag expert UkrAgroConsult show Ukraine's corn output could be as low as 19 million tons, about half of last year's 41 million tons.
UkrAgroConsult's pessimistic outlook follows huge production uncertainties as farmers experience shortages of diesel and fertilizer and bombed-out infrastructure.
The outlooks of two other ag firms aren't as gloomy. Black Sea research firm SovEcon expects Ukraine's 2022 corn harvest to be 27.7 million tons, and Barva Invest's outlook is 29.5 million tons. Both a far below 2021 totals.
Maxigrain analyst Elena Neroba warned if farmers don't have diesel, they "can't plant huge hectares."
"Some farmers still don't have access to seeds and fertilizers. Even if they already paid for them, the delivery supply chain doesn't work as well as it should," Neroba said.
Regardless of how much the conflict impacts output, global food prices have never risen so fast and have never been so high in anticipation of food shortages worldwide.
In March, global food prices jumped a stunning 12.64% MoM - almost double the previous record monthly surge...
Prices have exceeded levels only seen during the inflation riots of 2010/11, known as Arab Spring.
Breaking down export numbers, Ukraine produced 49.6% of global sunflower oil, 15.3% of global maize, 12.6% of global barley, and about 10% of global wheat.
Rather than planting, some Ukrainian farmers are stealing Russian tanks and selling them to the government.
We've already pointed out that food inflation riots are underway and may continue to spread throughout emerging market economies.
The bad news is that the world's hunger problem isn't going away and may only worsen. The anticipation of Ukraine's crops evaporating from the global food supply will exacerbate the incoming food crisis. Food supplies may plunge next year as harvests will result in lower production, which may force food prices even higher.
Considering what’s going on, I’d be surprised if they produce 19 million tons.
Famine: the old standby for totalitarian governments to put their boot heel on the neck of the people.
Yup...But watch....We’ll be shipping them corn...which means higher prices for us...just like every other commodity we’re shipping to them....FREE.
Good news is it doesn’t affect us. We grow our own food, and have a healthy export surplus to send to the world.
The country most affected: China. They are by far the world’s largest food importer. XI might be highly motivated to reign Putin in.
Probably should have dealt with Azov, rather than forcing Putin to do it.
In the Revelation to John we are told that the grains grown in the world’s great bread baskets (as it turns out) will be in great shortage while those grown in more Mediterranean climes will not be.
This can be caused by wars (causing fertilizer shortages where harvests are not simply disrupted) and engineered fuel shortages as well as by global cooling.
We have a major fertilizer shortage, and huge price increase for what’s available, coming too.
“We have a major fertilizer shortage”
We do not. Like food we are a net exporter of fertilizer.
The US ought to start producing more grain and sell it to the rest of the world, the way Arabs and others sell oil to us.
We can gouge the hell out of them and if they complain, we can remind them how they behaved with us, when we bought their oil! đ
I mean, think of all the decades the US basically saved starving nations and whole generations who would otherwise have perished.
Many of them not only failed to repay us, but are now among our most vicious enemies!!
I thought there was a mandate requiring all crops to be kept in Ukraine unless they grant a special export permit.
So I was expecting zero exports unless it is trading for a different food stuff.
“...which means higher prices for us...just like every other commodity weâre shipping to them....FREE.”
I’m all for helping my fellow man, but we (USA) are well beyond that point. When was the last time any nation sent money, material, food and clothing to us after an earthquake, flood, or tornado? NEVER!
I say no more foreign aid of any sort to any nation or illegal immigrant until we properly care for our veterans and resolve the homeless problem here.
I don’t know if “shocking” is quite the right word for the headline. War is hell. It’d be more shocking if things were business as usual in the agribusiness sector.
I agree with you absolutely. Trump is right...America First...and that is not Isolationism. That’s what was intended when we issued the Declaration of Independence.
One of my friends is a farmer. He tells me fertilizer prices are double what they were last year.
revelation doesn’t say that...the horseman is told not to harm the wine and oil.
Let’s see the verses that claim that!
There is also no proof that this is the apocalyptic age as opposed to those other times in history like say WW2 where there was also famine and food shortages in many places. Now what is going on could be the start of the apocalypse but it will all come out as we watch and observe.
How much is real vs. contrived or fake shortage? There are many who think they can make a short term profit killing on commodities before they have to drop back to more realistic pricing. Oil producers had a problem through out the years from 2016 to 2021 in that there was a glut of oil not being sold with stagnantly low oil prices. Remember the stories of ships and barges in the Gulf of mexico and off our other ports filled with oil that was not being released? The producers and the middlemen can now take an upfront profit increase on selling that oil to make their money on the front end until demand drops and they have to back off on their prices again. If the demand drops too low,the prices will drop and they will just refrain from releasing excess oil onto the markets again. There is plenty of oil but greed and the need to maintain a sort of “acceptable” profit margin per barrel is the priority of the producers and the middlemen as well as the refiners.
Umm... NO
China has both cash reserves and profitable exports with which to buy food from other countries. Those most affected will be those food importers who do not have both large stocks of foreign currency and exports that are valuable on international markets. Thus those contries worst affected are likely to be in Africa.
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