Posted on 03/24/2022 9:22:06 AM PDT by Browns Ultra Fan
The US Treasury 10Y-5Y curve (aka, the belly of the Treasury beast) has inverted.
It is more about the 10Y Treasury yield rising more slowly than the 5Y yield.
Freddie Mac’s 30Y mortgage commitment rate rose to 4.42%.
Today’s initial jobless claims came in at 187k, the lowest in modern history!! Overheated much?
More fuel on The Fed Fire to raise rates above 0.50%.
Fixed-income trading floors:
“We will be lucky if the Dems don’t steal the midterms.”
You know they will. If we’re lucky, the anti Dem vote will be big enough to combat some of the steals. But be assured, they will steal some seats, and the media allies will cover for them.
Well, that’s why it will be important to have the ground game to effectively combat and neutralize fraud, as what was done in Virginia last year.
Believe traders look at the 10Y - 2Y spread, not the 10Y - 5Y spread. Most academic studies are 10Y - 3m spread.
But, to get to an inverted 10y-2Y one generally needs to go through the 10Y-5Y inversion first.
I got in at the end of 2020 with a 2.5 mortgage rate. It is almost like free money! So I jumped!! Trump effect!
I remember when mortgage rates were 18.0%. Houses were a lot cheaper.
Agreed. This isn't worthy of flaming logo "INVERTED YIELD CURVE" headlines, but it's enough to get our attention to watch for the real inversion.
Correct. This also isn’t predicting the dire fate this author implies.
What it means is that investors believe the fed will be forced to have high interest rates for the next couple years, but in 10 years we will be back to the low interest/low inflation baseline we have been at for a quarter century.
I am almost done with my mortgage, and refi at the 3% rate would have not saved me a lot. My kids both go in under 3%. They look like damned geniuses. Good for them.
Now wait for the prices to drop correspondingly.
If you waited, you lost.
Snapped up a 4.5% refi six years after initial 30 year rate 7.125% back in 1998. Mortgage free for ten years now. Whew!
Now people are noticing.
They’ll steal every seat they can, uninhibited, in blue states, which will offset any gains in red states.
“I remember when mortgage rates were 18.0%. Houses were a lot cheaper.”
I do as well. High inflation and high mortgage rates are on the way and that will be ugly.
Some may say they are already here but I remember far worse rates - inflation and mortgages - in double digit territory.
2.5, was that a 30 year, right?
I got in at 2.87 on a 30 year loan, Late Feb of 21.
I think December 2020 and January of 2021 was the lowest, about 2.5 for 30 years. Shocking. Keeping all that money invested instead of locked up in a house, big benefit. That was a great time to buy a home.
If you had cash it was all bargains. Even in San Francisco.
My uncle bought five houses. He left a very large inheritance.
Seems too good to be true. I have peers getting 30 and 50 year mortgages and still struggling, when most of them realistically had the savings to just buy cash if rates were 18%. Now they have to worry about nothing bad ever happening in the next 30 to 50 years.
That is FREE money for all intents and purposes.
I urged anyone who wanted some bick ticket item to buy it at that time knowing pretty much full-well they would be paying it back with very cheap inflated dollars.
I have been debt free for decades now and the rates were so low I looked for something I might need to buy and borrow money. I found no justification. I have all I need or can take care of.
“I think December 2020 and January of 2021 was the lowest, about 2.5 for 30 years. Shocking. Keeping all that money invested instead of locked up in a house, big benefit. That was a great time to buy a home.”
Definitely! I re-fi’d @ 2.5% in Jan. 2021. It took a couple of months to process because the bank was swamped with re-fi requests, but the rate was locked so it wasn’t a problem.
They’re whining over 4%, smh.
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