Early Analysis of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Sub Brief YouTube channel ^ | Mar 3, 2022 | Sub Brief

[Widget Jr]

Delayed maintenance, logistical limits and poor communication have exposed how vulnerable an army can be when it's poorly led.

[Widget Jr]

"Sub Brief" is the moniker of Aaron Amick, a retired U.S. Navy Sonarman. In this he goes over the Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) on the invasion. This covers over some of the known issues the Russian invasion is facing. Issues and points raised:

• Logistical limits on what size force Russia can support, about 160,000 maximum beyond its borders.
• The effect on logistics by announcing the invasion in advance and its effect on logistics.
• Ghost soldiers on the roster, inmate constripts, undersized units reported as full. Multiple sources reporting that soldiers told they were on training exercises, so they wer not fully prepared for war. Shows a huge communication problems in the ranks.
• The invasion is based on Battalion Tactical Groups without signals platoons, so they got their orders from other groups and timetables without proper communications. Artillery is dispered with one per BTG, and not concetrated together. This makes the fire support ineffective. Units are splitting up so they can't support each other.
• Vehicles were not maintained for months prior to the invasion, leading to the variable pressure tire systems having lots of breakdowns.Their vehicles can not reliably operate off road, which forces the invasion to use roads.
• Ukranian air force and air defense while degraded are still functional
• Ukranian resistance is much greater than anyone expected
• Russia has to use roads, making them vulnerable to ambushes by aircraft, drones, and infantry.

Lots of examples of why this invasion is a mess.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

[Widget Jr]

What word do you mean? If you are going say to someone made a mistake, say what the mistake is.

[mac_truck]

Amick makes a good argument for why the US exit NATO.

The threat from Russia has been vastly overstated and Europe can handle its own affairs without US meddling.

[tsomer]

Should “CIA” be in that list?
Those drone attacks on hi-level targets makes me wonder.

[Berlin_Freeper]

Ukraine BTR 4 in battle, Mariupol

Ukrainian BTR-4 Footage Mariupol

[Red6]

Who says the Russians are performing poorly?

Is this based on the 7,000 casualties they allegedly took? The image's of 12 year old Ukrainian girl with blue and yellow ribbons in their hair holding a rifle?

Sadly, our government is feeding us nothing other than literal textbook definition propaganda (government influencing of perceptions), and we the tax payer are paying for that.

Our media is feeding us shit.

Garbage in, garbage out, when you don't have any real measures may it be true casualties, true morale indicators, true equipment losses, true intended objectives (i.e. what the Russians wanted to take or destroy and their timelines), not any real indicators on the Ukraine side... all you have is some strung together speculation which generally tends to be heavily influenced by a media/government bias which creates a “mood.”

I would not doubt that in the end, like with Covid where the actual mortality rate was 1/100 of the initial reports (20% initial mortality eventually turned into .2%, but who is holding anyone accountable?), or with inflation where it's really about 3 times what the US government reports (6.8% is really more like 20%)... we will find out that everything we were led to believe is wrong. What was the initial stated efficacy of the vaccine, 100% against death! hahaha

Basically, all I know is that I know nothing. It's all speculation and opinions at this point, because the MSM and governments are manipulating information in order to achieve support of their desired decisions. So they frame things to make me feel like I'm a “good person” to get behind it. Because of all the manipulation in information, I can't believe my own government (RT reported more accurately on the US elections in 2020 than CNN did - isn't that irony?) and my own media.

The problem with open source analysis like this is that they base it on information that later turns out as grossly inaccurate. IMHO-

[Drew68]

One thing I think is peculiar is the number of Russian generals who have been killed. Allegedly four now (though these deaths have not been announced by Moscow officials or verified by the U.S. Department of Defense).

Why are generals on the front line leading soldiers in to battle, doing jobs that should be done by a colonel, major, or even a lieutenant? Shouldn't generals be in the rear, planning operations and logistics?

[Widget Jr]

There is need for the CIA to be involved at the tactical level. Ukraine bought Turkish Bayraktar drones and control systems before the invasion. If the CIA or USAF was controlling them remotely, Russia could use that politically to claim direct NATO involvement. NATO does not want to go to war directly. All the talk about no fly zones, chemical or nuclear weapons and WW-III are distractions from the fact that neither Russia or NATO are making any threats of their use or moving in those directions. Giving Ukraine weapons and humanitarian support is good enough for now.

I'm hoping the headlines from the Daily Mail are true, and Russia's ability to support the invasion will dry up, when aid to Ukraine is ramping up. If that happens there is a chance Ukraine might actually win.

[McGruff]

Another armchair military analyst heard from. Must pay good. They are all over cable news.

[USS Alaska]

Basically, all I know is that I know nothing.

This is the reason I've shut down {almost to zero} any watching of any "news" from Ukraine.

I might as well watch a movie of "The Rock" or "The Thomas Crowne Affair" to get any 'real' news.

[NorseViking]

Stopped reading after “inmate conscripts”.
For everyone who have access to anything but mainstream media, it is clear the the Ukrainian military is all but pulverized over the entire Black Sea coast. Their main concentration, originally 80k troops in the Donbas pincer, has lost like 60% personnel. The same is true for Mariupol garrison.
Ukraine has no resources to try to relieve them, nor is it capable of moving forces due to a fear of air strikes.

[Widget Jr]

If you do not care, why are you even here telling us how much you do not care?

I know how cynical people are on this forum. So I try to post what they may find interesting, and leave it for people to decide for themselves what is or is not credible. If you do not trust any information, then you do not have a basis to have a opinion or criticize the opinion of anyone else.

The news media lies, we all know that. Real life and real events still happen no matter how badly its reported. People are going to try to make sense of what is happening from what is available. If you just want to dismiss everything, that is your call.

[Widget Jr]

My guess is they are trying to keep the morale of the troops up, and there are command, control and leadership problems in the officer’s ranks. The Generals are leading from the front because the army has so many problems they have to, not because they want to.

[cgbg]

There are better sources of information out there.

If they are banned or de-platformed by Big Tech, they are more likely to be telling the truth.

The US and Western Europe is running a brilliant propaganda campaign.

When the dust finally settles it will be obvious that propaganda was all that it was.

[Widget Jr]

What do you think are the more credible or are the least biased sources?

[FreshPrince]

Wait for it.....

Southfront!!

Lol!

[tlozo]

Early Analysis of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Thanks for posting, good overall analysis. Ignore the idiots.

[BeauBo]

"Lots of examples of why this invasion is a mess."

Divine intervention.

[BeauBo]

“originally 80k troops in the Donbas pincer, has lost like 60% personnel.”

Of their pre-war strength? Before mobilizing the Reserves, Territorial Defense forces and volunteers?