Never underestimate the home court advantage.
Brits made that mistake in 1775.
You’ve got that right - all the soldiers, ammunition, and food has to be trucked hundreds of miles. If the supply convoys are hit, there is no backup. The Ukrainian fighters can knock on any door and get a meal.
“If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations”
Another thing is next week it goes above freezing in Ukraine.
With that comes the “mud season.” The month long period where Ukrainian soils turn to mud that has caused just as many problems for invading armies as the Russian winter.
Will all that Russian armor soon not be able to operate?
$20 billion a day? Who did the calculations?
I wish for this to be true, but I do not believe russia can sustain combat operations for only 10 days.
Even iraq was more capable than that. They fought a war with iran for years.
“They have no raw materials. What was previously supplied mainly from Slovenia, Finland and Germany is now cut off.”
Uh exactly what raw materials are they talking about? Raw materials is something Russia has in abundance, if he was talking about advance electronic chips or something maybe I would take him seriously.
My guess is Putin’s strategy was to do minimal damage to basic civilian infrastructure and primarily take out all the military equipment supplied to Ukraine by the West. And to minimize civilian casualties so Russia wouldn’t look as bad. There were no heavy bombing or missiles indiscriminately causing the vast carnage one usually expects in war because Putin knows he is already being painted as a crude villain.
I expect he will try and force Ukraine into accepting a treaty of neutrality, and eventually move his forces back into the 2 breakaway areas east which he will absorb permanently.
jinping
Never underestimate the home court advantage.
Brits made that mistake in 1775.
Agree. There are 40 million hoping mad Ukrainians and they are hunting for invaders. Also, the morale boost that having the Aresenal of Democracy behind your back is. Ukraine knows they will never run out of ammo now. Putin and his troops know that too.
The invader moral is certainly collapsing now. Putin can’t even control cities near the border. Practically in Russia. He went a bridge too far and will pay the price.
“The moral is to the material as ten to one.”
Napoleon Bonaparte
Putin seems to be surrounded by sycophants. He thought Ukrainian people would welcome him. He was wrong.
The article rings true. 10 days is what he has, or less.
If he tries to slaughter Ukrainian women and children then native Russians will rebel against Putin.
Their resupply and replacements were 60+ days away across the North Atlantic ocean in the winter, and they arrived in wooden sailing ships.