Posted on 02/23/2022 10:25:47 AM PST by Red Badger
This is not a drill. It's the closest we've been to World War 3 since the Cuban Missile Crisis. 🧵
First, it's important to understand the history of "no-fly zones" as a concept.
They are a purely modern phenomenon – one that was *never* employed by the U.S. during the Cold War – because enforcing an NFZ against the USSR would have risked nuclear war. Image The first NFZ was established over Iraq after the Gulf War, in order to prevent Saddam from further gassing the Kurds from the air.
It was a half-measure between war and peace.
America and its partners would not invade, but it would deny Iraq the use of its own airspace. Image What made the creation of the first NFZ viable?
The fact that coalition forces enjoyed complete air superiority over the Iraqi military.
There was no realistic prospect that Saddam could mount an air war against America and its allies.
The risk of escalation was zero.
No-fly zones were subsequently used by the West in Kosovo, Bosnia, and Libya.
In every case, the target of the NFZ was a non-peer military.
This made NFZs a politically palatable option: they allowed kinetic force to be used without risking major U.S. casualties. Image But somewhere along the way, Western policymakers forgot the limited conditions where NFZs work.
They started thinking of them like a "magic bullet" that can be used to coerce any rival of the United States.
They forgot that, against a peer competitor, an NFZ means total war. I sounded the alarm about this problem in 2016, with an article in @ForeignPolicy.
At the time, Hillary Clinton was advocating a no-fly zone over Syria.
I warned this was a "polite euphemism" for starting a shooting war with Russia, since Putin would not ground his planes. Image It's possible that we are all alive today because Obama did not listen to Clinton then.
If the U.S. starts shooting down Russian planes, Russia will retaliate.
Nobody can predict how far up the chain of escalation we would advance. Unroll available on Thread Reader https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1484445827728695299?s=20&t=fZfrLE6jRaYuqCLafUEnNQ Today, Biden is being pressured to take similar actions against Russia.
The point person for this lobby is Obama's Assistant Secretary of Defense, Evelyn Farkas.
She wants the U.S. to declare a no-fly zone over the portions of Ukraine that are not yet occupied by Russia. Image Her tweet yesterday wasn't something she posted randomly with no thought.
She's also advocated for a Ukraine no-fly zone in @politico.
Keep in mind, this isn't an obscure person.
Farkas was the Obama administration's most senior Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine.
And her proposal hasn't been met with contempt and derision. Other prominent Russia hawks are lining up behind it.
Today, Biden said, "We have no intention of fighting Russia."
But NFZ proponents will insist that it *isn't* fighting Russia.
That is always what has made NFZs so seductive – they are a form of coercion short of outright war. Image Russia's current force posture and diplomatic position provide a particularly tempting target for an NFZ.
It has deployed forces into the separatist-held territory of the Donbas – but not into the portions of Lugansk and Donetsk held by the Ukrainian military. Image It is now deliberating whether to recognize the entirety of the Donbas as the sovereign territory of the breakaway republics
– or whether to restrict that claim to the land they militarily control.
U.S. policymakers may believe an NFZ could sway Russia to choose the latter. Unfortunately, that thesis is inconsistent with the security goals that President Putin laid out in his address to the Russian nation yesterday.
His avowed national-security objectives can only be met by direct intervention in Ukraine. https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1496263613279002628?s=20&t=fZfrLE6jRaYuqCLafUEnNQ Indeed, if the U.S. chooses to establish a no-fly zone, it will only aggravate the security concerns that Putin articulated.
It would be an extreme provocation that could induce him to take even more aggressive actions than he was otherwise planning. Image We should only establish an NFZ in Ukraine if we are willing to enforce it.
And in this case, enforcing it would mean shooting down Russian planes and bombing Russia's ground-based air-defense systems.
The people advocating the NFZ want that to happen. Do you? • • •
“The point person for this lobby is Obama’s Assistant Secretary of Defense, Evelyn Farkas.”
This EF was born in Hungary, infiltrated the deep state, and is likely a spook or double spook imho. Certainly is a moron re no-fly zones.
Yup, and he REALLY bad mouthed them. If he wanted a communistic state and got it, those words would get him shot before he had a chance to get out of town.
He wants to re-install Tsar Russia..much like it was during Peter the Great and Catherine the Great.
The Grand Prince/Duke, or whatever he is called, was married in a national televised ceremony last year. Its all set up. Putin wants him in so he can be in the background to pull the strings of power.
Just for old time’s sake:
Obama Defense Official Evelyn Farkas Admitted She Lied On MSNBC About Having Evidence Of Collusion
“Evelyn Farkas was forced to admit under oath before Congress that despite what she claimed on MSNBC, she never had evidence of Trump-Russia collusion.”
This is the first “war” in at least the last century not being induced and then driven by the Deep State Cabal.
It’s a great thing... Go for it Putin.
It’s oaky to lie on MSNBC. They do it all the time!.....................
More scare mongering. I expect a lot more.
They want to send us all to the Russian Front.
In Ukraine, Russian Front comes to YOU!......................
Neither side will go there.
Since the Israelis seem to blow past Russian S300 air defense fairly easily, if I were Putin I'd be a little worried his air defense isn't as good as it seems.
I'd also suspect he's denuding the Russian Far East of air cover.
There is probably a NOTAM in the region.
This sh!t could get out of hand.
5.56mm
That’s what this whole thing is and has been from the beginning; Start a War so Biden will look heroic....................
Silly Milly is oddly quiet...
Russia and China colluding........................
How on Earth could NATO enforce a no fly zone on the border of Russia? They should worry about Russia declaring a no fly zone over them.
This is not a drill. It’s the closest we’ve been to World War 3 since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Not true. Putinists want their opponents to think that WW3 is just around the corner so their political opponents won’t escalate in ways they themselves do. It’s exactly the same gaslighting Democrats do to Republicans. Basically, get hysterical and bully your opposition into submission.
But after we work our way up the escalator we are all on the “Russian Front”.
What was that burst in the sky and why doesn’t anything work now?
Thank you. New tagline.
We’ll, you start with several tankers loitering around over the Black Sea and then keep the fighters moving up between Ukraine and Incirlik.
See? What could go wrong? /s
“No blood for an illegitimate administration.”
#NO BLOOD FOR BRANDON!
“Nobody can predict how far up the chain of escalation we would advance. “
Every war game since 1950 shows once US and Russia start shooting at each other it ALWAYS goes nuclear eventually.
Somebody takes a big hit, starts losing and out come the nukes.
Every single time.
AND ALL THE NEOCONS IN DC KNOW THIS.
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