Posted on 07/12/2021 9:16:56 AM PDT by blam
Researchers from Colorado State University boosted their prediction for named tropical storms in the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season in a revised forecast issued last Thursday.
Colorado State meteorologists predicted 20 named storms, up from 17 in their forecast issued in April.
The forecasters also increased the number of expected hurricanes to nine from eight.
Colorado State continues to expect four major hurricanes.
The total number of forecast named storms includes the five named storms so far in 2021. The season’s first hurricane, Elsa came ashore on the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.
“Elsa’s development and intensification into a hurricane in the tropical Atlantic also typically portends an active season,” the report said. “We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
This year is forecast to be the sixth straight above-average U.S. Atlantic hurricane season. The record 2020 season had 30 named storms.
The revised Colorado State forecast is in line with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) outlook issued in late May.
NOAA forecasters called for between three and five major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 kph) in 2021.
NOAA also forecasts between six and 10 hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph (119 kph) to form out of between 13 and 20 named tropical storms with winds of at least 39 mph (63 kph).
An average hurricane season in the Atlantic between 1991 and 2020 saw three major hurricanes, seven hurricanes and 14 tropical storms.
The hurricane season began on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30.
The Colorado State forecast also said there is a 68% chance at least one major hurricane will strike the U.S. coast. The average for the 20th century is 52%.
Need to see what the Irish Bookies are taking bets on. More accurate.
Ho hum.
Chickens. Make it a hundred. That’s what we should expect with all the glow bull warming and stuff.
I don’t trust science from any institution that openly admits it can’t tell the difference between men and women. LOL
Will they get fired if they are wrong?
Of course not.
3 major hurricanes,
12 total hurricanes,
16 named storms.
Because they think the La Nina is coming back in the pacific and the loss of wind shear will help the storms develop more.
“Researchers”
Are “researchers” just like those scientist and experts we keep hearing from?
Drop back and punt.
eventually, they’ll adjust it so they can say they accurately predicted the hurricane season.
So what if it was mostly after the fact.
Wonder why they chose that 30 year period.
Could happen....could not happen. And who cares. It’s that time of year. Batten down the hatches.
So after the season is over, will any of these prognosticators look back and correct their predictions?
It has yet to happen.....
Just don’t watch the weather guy on CBS This Morning. Everything that goes on with the weather is attributed to Climate change, and I man everything. The guy is Chicken Little the weather man.
If they keep naming thunderstorms maybe they’ll get there. I’m in a thunderstorm right now that’s worse than the named storm (Claudette) we had a couple of weeks ago.
Well perhaps they should raise the count to 99 ?
It seems that they are naming every sneeze in the Ocean.
They are already up to the letter E, and not one of them a memorable storm.
Just asking.
CSU’s meteorology department is pretty solid. They’re not a big proponent of globull warming.
Haven’t checked lately, but, in the past, their accuracy was about 50%. You could just flip a coin and be just as accruate as they are
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