Posted on 07/08/2021 11:25:34 AM PDT by blam
If these sentiments become reality over time, it’s going to be a sea change for demand and supply at these crazy prices.
So just briefly: This explains some of the dynamics we have seen in the housing market recently, with mortgage applications, sales of existing homes, and sales of new single-family houses dropping for months even as investors have piled into the market and as inventories have started to rise.
Fannie Mae has been conducting its National Housing Survey monthly since 2010, one of the data collection efforts to come out of the Housing Bust. The survey covers a range of housing-related topics. And in its survey for June – conducted between June 1 and June 24 and released on Wednesday – there are record trend changes in consumers attitudes about whether it’s “a good time to buy a home,” or “a bad time to buy a home,” or “good time to sell a home,” or “a bad time to sell a home.” And you know what’s coming.
The percentage who said that it was a “bad time to buy a home” spiked over the past three months from record to record and in June hit 64%. Consumers cited home prices as the predominant reason.
A record low 32% of the respondents said that it was still a good time to buy a home, while the percentage of fence-sitters who didn’t know dropped to 4%.
“While all surveyed segments have expressed greater negativity toward homebuying over the last few months, renters who say they are planning to buy a home in the next few years have demonstrated an even steeper decline in homebuying sentiment than homeowners,” according to Fannie Mae’s press release.
“It’s likely that affordability concerns are more greatly affecting those who aspire to be first-time homeowners than other consumer segments who have already established homeownership,” the report said.
But it’s a great time to sell a home.
The percentage of respondents who said that it was a “good time to sell a home” spiked to a record of 77%:
Conversely, only 15% of the respondents said it was a “bad time to sell,” and 7% didn’t know.
During the Housing Bust in 2010 and 2011, when prices were low, fewer than 15% of the respondents said that it was a good time to sell. Folks know when homes are priced right to buy and when pricing is ridiculously out of whack for buyers but ideal for sellers, and when it’s time to sell.
But each of these insightful and motivated sellers eager to cash out at these ridiculous prices must find a buyer of the opposite persuasion who thinks they’re getting a deal, which is what makes a market. As the market moves forward, with nearly two-thirds of the people thinking that now is a bad time to buy a home, all these sellers have some explaining to do.
If these sentiments play out in reality, future demand by potential buyers at these crazy prices will be weak; and future supply of homes that sellers want to cash out of at these crazy prices will come out of the woodwork.
It’s a bad time to buy a home. It is a HORRIBLE time to build a home...
Same goes for vehicle market right now.
“If these sentiments play out in reality”
How often does that happen?
In this case, it’s a seller’s market, so these sentiments just reflect the current reality, and are not necessarily an omen.
I get asked at least once a week if I want to sell my house. My response is always ‘And do WHAT???’.
I can’t rent for my current monthly payment, and insurance and taxes are included for escrow. I sure as heck don’t want a more expensive home!
Renting in Connecticut is cheaper per month than paying off a mortgage right now, data shows
It all fits in with Agenda 21.
Live in western Colorado and realtors are desperate for inventory. Problem is ... yeah, it’s a good time to sell but where am I going to go? Areas of possible interest are in a overheated real estate market. Like the Zillow assessment of my property which is up 100K over this time last year.
And yet the home sales continue…I’ll never understand it. I guess a lot of it is people trying to escape big cities & blue states….
It is a HORRIBLE time to build a home...
Why?
Because WOOD prices have skyrocketed. Cost more to build right now.
The net effect might be the same as dropping 30% to 40% of your current mortgage value.
Why?
Skyrocketing materials costs and shrinking materials availability.
“Live in western Colorado and realtors are desperate for inventory.”
I’m getting one ready for sale on the western slope near one of last year’s wildfires that took out over 200 homes. Seller’s market, obviously. I bought my replacement home 2 years ago further west before the prices really took off.
It’s all about timing and luck. Fire skipped my area by half a mile and someone will be happy to get my horse property and house. I’m having a yard sale and giving away everything we don’t need. Many people need household items and furniture as they lost everything.
Same here, two or three times a week I get texts and emails asking if my house is for sale.
If I had a small second house, or a place out in the woods I’d do it.
But I don’t so I’ll just keep the place.
There’s no affordable inventory in my area. If I sold at a premium, there’s nothing suitable for me.
“Skyrocketing materials costs and shrinking materials availability.”
And there’s a labor shortage.
Friends of mine who remodel homes for a living say that some of the builders they know are not even bothering with making homes that sell for less than 2-3 million dollars. People buying these houses have so much money paying an extra $500,000 is peanuts.
These same friends say if they see a junction box, roof tile, plaster board, etc. at the hardware store they buy it on sight, needed or not. They know if a customer wants a job done they might not be able to find the needed supplies, so they buy it when they can and just store it.
ALL materials are skyrocketing and sub-contractors are jacking up their rates.
I passed on a couple of flip/build new projects in the past month, not worth it right now
“These same friends say if they see a junction box, roof tile, plaster board, etc. at the hardware store they buy it on sight, needed or not”
Guy that shingled our roof last month honored his estimate given in February. I figured he would come back wanting more money.
Every year Late fall into winter he buys 5-7 tractor trailer loads of the most popular Owens Corning shingles and colors at super sale price and has them delived to his out building.
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