Why Did Traffic Deaths Spike As Drivers Left Roads?

American Institute for Economic Research ^ | July 5, 2021 | Peter C. Earle

[CheshireTheCat]

In the weeks after the attacks of September 11, 2001, many thousands of Americans took to the roads and highways in lieu of flight. Some opted to drive because their vacation or business air travel was cancelled; others because they were understandably afraid of subsequent hijackings.

Some years later, a group of Cornell University economists determined that after the terror attacks,

in the last three months of [2001] fear of flying revved up car use and caused a second toll of lives in US roads. In addition, the inconvenience of tighter airport security after 9/11 may have further encouraged substitution to road travel.

It’s tragic, but unsurprising: one would generally expect that with a sudden jump in the number of vehicles on the road, a commensurate increase in accidents would be observed. And indeed, that is what the researchers found even after taking into account “time trends, weather, road conditions, and other factors.” The additional death toll on highways as a secondary effect of the terror attacks numbered over 2,000, with many non-fatal injuries as well.

But as initially reported in early 2021 and presently congealing with additional data, the opposite is also true. Despite having driven much less owing to lockdowns–staying at home out of fear, or simply because there were less places to go and fewer things to do–the National Safety Council (NSC) estimates that over 42,000 Americans died in motor vehicle accidents in 2020.

That’s 8% more than the previous year. It’s also the highest death toll since 2007, and the first increase in four years. Worse yet, the rate of fatalities per 100 million driven miles (a normalized measure) in 2020 leapt 24% from the previous year, which is the largest annual increase since statistics began being tracked in 1924...

[Fraxinus]

I got the impression that there were fewer automobile collisions, but the ones that happened were much higher energy (speed of vehicle). Slightly few collisions, but much more likely to have death or serious injury (not a lot of death or injury in sub 20MPH collisions with modern cars).

[Farmerbob]

Covid...? Is this a rhetorical question? (Of course I haven’t read the article yet.)

[the OlLine Rebel]

It could be plenty were on the roads doing nothing but doodling around. Driving for fun.

(Not so much at first as traffic really was far down in our region all summer.)

[lepton]

For a while, at least, we saw that it even became commonplace for people to ignore red lights.