Posted on 03/14/2021 3:41:54 PM PDT by CheshireTheCat
A year ago the first COVID-19 lockdowns swept across the country, bringing much of the nation to a standstill, creating historically high levels of unemployment, closing schools in some cases for a full year, and confining tens of millions of people to their homes lest close proximity to friends and neighbors help spread the coronavirus.
Much of those decisions — the shutdowns, the capacity limits at grocery stores, the masking orders, the directives for Americans to remain six feet apart at all times even while outdoors — were driven by dire predictions that a massive COVID surge was just around the corner.
Experts and authorities warned that Americans could be hospitalized with the disease in numbers that would overwhelm state hospital capacities....
Yet in many cases the most dire projections from experts turned out to be significantly off-base, and the real data ended up far less grim than was initially modeled. Whether that's because the mitigation measures were so successful or because the modeling was faulty remains unknown and will likely be a topic of study for years.
Still, looking back, it is astonishing how inflated some of the projections were. In mid-March 2020, for instance, New York Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo estimated that, based on the epidemiological curve at the time, "in 45 days [the state] could have up to an input of people who need 110,000 beds that compares to our current capacity of 53,000 beds, 37,000 ICU units, ventilators, which compares to a capacity currently of 3,000 ventilators."
According to state data, COVID hospitalizations in the state peaked roughly a month later, coming in at just under 19,000, or at just 17% of Cuomo's earlier estimate. Total ICU COVID patients peaked shortly thereafter at 5,225, or at just 13% of the governor's forecast...
(Excerpt) Read more at justthenews.com ...
The one complaint I actually have with whatever Trump did was buying into this crap. And yet, I know he didn’t buy it but he knew the inevitable daily count of deaths they would attribute to him. Easier said than done but he should have taken those arrows and just used everyone else’s response worldwide and contrast.
The studies that cannot be done, because it is all after the fact, would look at the difference between what we had going on in mandates, and what might have been with some of the recommendations but minus any lockdowns.
There was evidence last year from a major study of New York State patients hospitalized with the Wuhan Virus, that suggests the kind of study I just suggested would destroy the lockdowns alone. It found that of the New York State hospitalized Wuhan Virus patients at the time, 2/3 had be staying at home. That is 2/3 were not “essental workers”, NOT those who were going out to work every day, working with others in offices & stores, using the public transit everyday, having one or two meals out of the house nearly every day, and in many ways supposedly “exposed”. No. 2/3 of hospitalized patients had been isolating themselves as they had been told to do. So much for lockdowns working - NOT.
It all started at Imperial College in London. The projected a 3 percent death rate. That would have meant 180 million deaths world wide. Based on this the draconian lock down and restrictions were warranted.
It was a Bull Sh-t analysis based on bad science. They knew it was. They crashed the economies of the free world but not China’s. Thus it all makes sense.
Oddly in the past Imperial College made great errors on past epidemics. Imperial College is driven by politics and not science. Years ago it was a standard but no more.
Covid didn’t crush the economy. Government did.
The legacy of the CCP virus is that millions of Americans complied with illegal executive fiat house arrest.
Down in Naples Florida right now. Mingling with the wealthy in 80 degree temperatures and no masks, no six feet. Enough vitamin D to last a summer. Life is good. God is good. Freedom is wonderful!
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
― Yogi Berra
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