New international study says coronavirus lockdowns not more effective than voluntary measures, not needed to slow the spread

The Blaze ^ | January 15, 2021 | Chris Pandolfo

[lakecumberlandvet]

I don’t wear a mask. Around my chin, mouth or otherwise. I’m relying on my strong immune system to take care of me. So far it hasn’t let me down. You seem like a nice person and I wish you well.

[RC one]

They may not be 100% effective but they help and is it really that terrible of an inconvenience to wear a mask? Especially if it helps reduce transmission to susceptible people?

[exDemMom]

People walking around outside with their mask pulled below their nose or without one is not the real problem, for outside transmission is rare,

Where is the research to back that up? Links?

I do not know of any particular reason transmission would be less effective outside than indoors. If you are standing in a crowd of people who are in close proximity, the fact that you are outside will not save you from an infectious dose of virus. It's just as important to socially distance outside as it is inside.

Yet Covid is overall only lethal to those with comorbidities, primarily obesity (70% of Americans are at least overweight and 42% obese) and diabetes and hypertension, and which are mostly our fault. Meanwhile the efficacy of vaccines is far from established.

I am well aware of the contribution of co-morbidities to lethality of Covid-19. However, even in young and healthy people, Covid-19 is more deadly than influenza. I haven't done an age analysis recently, but the last one I did showed that Covid-19 is more deadly than influenza to anyone over the age of 20.

I found an online calculator that can determine your specific chances of dying if you catch Covid-19. I do not have that link now. It showed that my chance is around 0.47%... about 5 times greater than my chance of dying if I catch influenza. I prefer to just avoid catching it in the first place. The vaccines are over 90% effective; I will get one once it is available. When I went to the VA hospital a few days ago, they were running a vaccine clinic for those age 75 and up. They'll get vaccines for the rest of us eventually.

[RC one]

I would expect Covid to spread easily anywhere where there are ridiculously high population densities like we see in NYC, San Fran, New jersey, etc. I can’t blame these people for masking up.

[glennaro]

As one multi-degreed doctor at a recent conference in Florida noted, wearing a mask "to protect others" is not medicine (as the way most people apply, wear and maintain them renders the mask not just ineffective but completely ineffective), it's socialism.

[exDemMom]

Around my chin, mouth or otherwise. I’m relying on my strong immune system to take care of me.

And I will make a very obvious point of avoiding you if I should see you somewhere. Although I wear a mask whenever I go out, masks are most effective if everyone is wearing one.

You think your immune system is strong? So you will get a cytokine storm if you are exposed to Covid-19? Seriously, I do not understand the faith that people put into a "strong immune system." The best immunity is moderate, not strong. You want an immune system that responds adequately to microbial assault, without going into overdrive. Furthermore, if you are exposed to an infectious dose, you *will* get sick, unless you already have specific immunity--which you can only get through being exposed to an infectious agent or vaccine.

[exDemMom]

As one multi-degreed doctor at a recent conference in Florida noted, wearing a mask "to protect others" is not medicine (as the way most people apply, wear and maintain them renders the mask not just ineffective but completely ineffective), it's socialism.

Really? Just who is this doctor? What are his credentials and experience? What was the conference?

Masks work. Many studies have shown that. Even if they are not worn completely correctly, studies have shown that they reduce transmission. (Of course, when they are pulled below the nose, they are useless.) Masks are a freedom enabler, in that they allow you to go out and do normal activities while protecting you from a deadly virus. Without the use of masks, we'd either need a complete lockdown, or decide that millions of people are dispensable (because around 3 million would die before we started getting enough people immune for a herd immunity effect to kick in).

Do you also consider mandates to wear safety belts or helmets as "socialism"? What about traffic safety laws? How about building codes? Food safety laws and regulations? Anti-crime laws? You do know that the government has a constitutional mandate to protect our welfare?

[lakecumberlandvet]

Yes. And you can’t transmit it if you don’t got it. Besides, your mask/face covering prevents incoming as well as outgoing, doesn’t it?

[lakecumberlandvet]

I likewise maintain my distance when around masked/face-covered people. Never know what their intentions are. Might want to rob me. When I was growing up only robbers and bad guys wore masks. With a few notable exceptions. Superman, Batman, Lone Ranger, Zorro to name a few. Have a masked day.

[glennaro]

Masks work. Many studies have shown that. Even if they are not worn completely correctly, studies have shown that they reduce transmission

The results of nearly a year -- an entire year! -- of widespread mask wearing (i.e., reality) refute your claim that "masks work" completely an irrefutably no matter what your favorite "medical experts" claim.

Recall that this mask-wearing placebo started out with claims that masking protects the mask wearer from contracting the virus. When that sales pitch didn't work so well it was changed to masking protects other people. That sales pitch worked better because it made depressed and irrationally fearful people feel better about themselves ... you know, the mantras of "be socially responsible" and the tiresome "we're all in this together".

Sure, a mask (like a handkerchief) will stop droplets from spreading to others during a sneeze or cough and it will catch droplets if the masker spits as they speak. However (and it's a big "however"), consider what happens if the mask is not replaced within 10 or 15 minutes of the sneeze, cough or spit-talking "event". The droplets dry out and then -- as with any non-HEPA dry filter -- the mask unloads the particles either deep into the lungs of the masker during each subsequent inhale and, because the mask lattice is too small to contain a virus "particle", into the surrounding air every time the masker exhales. This is a fact no matter how much you may dispute this fact.

What is as tragic as the fiction that masks can "stop the spread" of a respiratory virus is the lies -- the outright lies -- of "experts" who know better ... compounded with the ignorance of people who desperately want to believe what they're being told.

Masking wouldn't be such a big deal to me except that trying to rebuild our devastated economy and our severely damaged society is made much more difficult when much of the population -- most of whom are healthy and/or non-symptomatic -- look like they belong in a sick ward, walking around frightened, depressed, distrustful of others and even angry as a result of the ubiquitous, emotionally-charged and constant visual "reminder" that we're all just one sneeze, cough or spit droplet away from certain death!. Don't you see this? Have you not considered the cost to our economy and society of a "cure" that doesn't work -- a "cure" that hasn't done a damn thing to "stop the spread" of this respiratory virus over the past year? It's ridiculous ... and it is most depressing to watch us literally harm ourselves.

The doctor I referred to is Dr. Simone Gold who, with Dr. Richard Urso, was part of a panel moderated by Charlie Kirk at the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit held in West Palm Beach, Florida in December 2020. Kirk replayed the highlights of the panel discussion in a 30-minute podcast available at the link below. Have a listen and, as a rational person, consider a different "medical expert" opinion. The comment I referenced is at the wrap up near the end of the podcast.

TPUSA Conference Panel

[daniel1212]

Where is the research to back that up? Links?

Sorry to neglect that, and out of over 140 research links here on the subject of the Covid issue is this:

A new (Oct 29, 2020) Massachusetts report on clusters found that household transmission was at the center of the vast majority (almost 94 percent[31] ) of recent COVID-19 cases.[32]And such infection can occur among groups even with very strict restrictions and preventative measures.[33] [34]

And another one study of 318 outbreaks involving 1,245 cases in China found just one transmission that occurred outdoors, infecting just two people. Most of those who were infected and died were occurred at home.[28] Meanwhile a systematic review of peer-reviewed papers stated that five studies found a low proportion of reported global SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred outdoors and that the odds of indoor transmission was very high (almost 19 times higher) as compared to outdoors.[29]

I do not know of any particular reason transmission would be less effective outside than indoors. If you are standing in a crowd of people who are in close proximity, the fact that you are outside will not save you from an infectious dose of virus. It's just as important to socially distance outside as it is inside.

Somewhat true in close proximity when you add in the time factor, and the main reason outdoor transmission is lower is because people are less likely to spend time in in close proximity outdoors. However, far better fresh air circulation (at least in the very windy area I am in) also reduces the risk and viral load, while a Department of Homeland Security official affirmed that increasing temperatures, humidity and sunlight are detrimental to coronavirus saliva droplets on surfaces and in the air.[106]

Also, for those who do not take supplements, then of pertinence is that one study of 190,000 blood samples from patients of all ethnicities and ages infected with COVID in all 50 states showed that people deficient in vitamin D were 54% more likely to get COVID-19,[25][26]

I am well aware of the contribution of co-morbidities to lethality of Covid-19.. However, even in young and healthy people, Covid-19 is more deadly than influenza. I haven't done an age analysis recently, but the last one I did showed that Covid-19 is more deadly than influenza to anyone over the age of 20. [25][26]

That is hardly much a rebuttal, since over the age of 20 includes everyone that is alive over that age, and from early one the vast majority of those who died because of Covid-19 were 65 years-old or more,[82] with 80% of all Covid-19 deaths being among those 65 and older since February, and 92% of all Covid-19 deaths among those 55 and older. Covid-19 also was attributable to almost 10 percent of all deaths among those 65 and older, but only one percent of all deaths among young people. [83] .

And while an estimated 1,200 children died in the 2012-2013 flu season[15] only 94 children (under 18) out of over 210,000 deaths have died due to COVID-19 (reported 10–02) [16] and less than 10 percent of domestic COVID-19 cases are among children under 18 (reported 9–11,[17] while the vast majority of children with severe COVID tend to have other risk factors.[18]

And as reported in October, CDC data indicated that being infected with getting Covid-19 is riskier for seniors age 70 and older than climbing Mt. Everest; in contrast, the infection fatality risk for those under age 20 was equivalent to driving a car for 7,500 miles. “Those under age 50 who get infected with the coronavirus lose less than one day of discounted quality-adjusted life expectancy; seniors age 70 or older lose nearly 90 days.”[14]

And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that almost 90 percent of U.S. coronavirus patients who have been hospitalized had underlying health problems, or comorbidities.[87][88]As of 8–22, for 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. [89]

On September 15, 2020 the CDC reported 121 (confirmed or probable) Covid-19–associated deaths were among persons aged 21 years and younger by July 31 2020 (and which age group constitutes years constitute 26% of the U.S. population) and 91 (75%) of which had an underlying medical condition, and with 63% of these 121 deaths being male, and with 85 Covid-19 deaths being among those aged 10–20 years, and with 12 deaths being infants.[84] With 188 influenza-associated deaths among children (0-4 years) influenza-associated influenza for the 2019-20 season as of September 19, 2020, and 434 deaths among children aged under 18 years, then there have been more deaths attributed to the flu among children than due to Covid-19.[85]

I found an online calculator that can determine your specific chances of dying if you catch Covid-19. I do not have that link now. It showed that my chance is around 0.47%... about 5 times greater than my chance of dying if I catch influenza. I prefer to just avoid catching it in the first place.

I found an online calculator also, and As of 8:23:09 AM Fri, 01/01/21 we had the figure of 355,000 Covid-assigned deaths out of 21,000,000 (slightly anticipated and in rounded figures) positive Covid-19 cases, which figures (Y is what % of X) to be a CFR of 1.69% (CFR=Case Fatality Rate - see here for more on this - which rate is based on confirmed cases, and which are the minority of cases and have been those mostly likely to be tested and to die, since for most of the pandemic those who had symptoms were the most likely to be tested, while a large percentage of persons who test positive never developed any symptoms) Note: there are over 80 countries with a higher CFR than the USA.

As for the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate, meaning Covid-assigned deaths as a % of the estimated total infections, vs. confirmed infections) in the US, an official estimate of the estimated total infections in the US is very hard to find, but the CDC (Dec. 11) provided a figure of 91 Million Estimated Total Infections and at which time there were about 300,000 Covid-assigned deaths (figures are rounded), and which translates into a IFR of 0.33.

Then we have the CMR Crude Morality Rate(Covid-assigned deaths as a % of the total pop.), in which 355,000 as a % of 332,000,000 is 0.11%. And with 1,828,684 Covid-assigned deaths worldwide (12–28–20) out of a total world population of 7,800,000,000 people (as of March 2020), then the overall worldwide Covid-19 crude morality rate (CMR) is 0.02.

I prefer to just avoid catching it in the first place.

I actually was kind of hoping to get it if I had not already and thus recover by the grace of God and thus develop lasting immune response. And after being outside almost daily in the Spring Summer and Fall unmasked with frequent close contact with people fixing bikes on the sidewalk (mostly kids, unmasked) and playing hard at basketball (as today) and football - praise God - then I should have caught it if it was as contagious as advertised. However, about a year ago I did get the flu, which I recognized by its distinctive symptom in me, which is that all of a sudden I feel like I was on drugs (as I used to often in my youth before I was born again in 77). And after that I had a lingering headache for some time and so I think I likely had the Covid, perhaps after the flu, and if so my immune system was on alert (I usually catch a cold once a year in the Winter, but which seems to perk my immune system up - beside cleaning my sinuses out - thank God). Yet one one else here was sick even though twice a week was sat in chairs at a table for prayer, Bible reading and sharing twice a week. And we are at least 60 or older. Glory to God.

The vaccines are over 90% effective; I

And you just believe that? Just what does that mean? That a over vaccine 90% efficacy rate based on short-term data in highly controlled studies translated into 90% effectiveness in the real world? No. That in these clinical trials in those who make up the 5% success group did not become infected with Covid? And thus after vaccination you will not become infected and infectious and longer need to wear a mask and be quarantined? No to all. And that From what i read vaccination neither means the success group did not become infected, but that they did not come down with symptoms.

And thus the vaccine neither ensures you will not be infected, and while if it works as advertised, then it will reduce those with develop symptoms, yet a healthy immune system does the same at at least the 90% rate. Meanwhile whether the asymptomatic can be infectious is a matter of debate, and thus wearing a mask mandates and being quarantined (possibly repeatedly) every time you come in contact with a known carrier) will continue. And with the great increasingly death toll from this unwise across the board restrictions would continue.

When I went to the VA hospital a few days ago, they were running a vaccine clinic for those age 75 and up. They'll get vaccines for the rest of us eventually.

I am not opposed to safe vaccines and thank God for such against the likes of TB etc., but I see no need for it myself, while all vaccines are not the same, and mor e reports of aged people dying after being vaccinated are coming in, so I would wait if I were you.

[daniel1212]

I found an online calculator that can determine your specific chances of dying if you catch Covid-19....It showed that my chance is around 0.47%

That is about average. I looked and found one and though I do know if it is the same one you found, but its calculation certainly does not help its credibility. Despite being "in the lowest risk band for catching COVID-19" yet "if infected we estimate you have a 1.322% chance of dying COVID-19. You are in the highest risk band for dying from COVID-19/."

This is despite being less than 136lbs at 5'4.5'' at 68 and not drinking or smoking, and with no health conditions listed, and not using public trans, nor Non-Prescription / recreational drugs, but using alcohol hand sanitizer and the people I live with (which is currently only two) taking steps to reduce risk by washing hands but only "sometime" wearing a mask when outside of your house / apartment (since I usually do but not when playing sports or working by myself). Of course it never asks if you exercise, or how long you can run, or whether how often you have caught colds or the flu (or even if you were vaccinated) and if so, hard it was for you to recover, of if you already had Covid symptoms and recovered. All of which would proved a better idea of how likely a person will recover.

However, I did the same test again but changed my birth date to 1992 and the result was, "If infected we estimate you have a 0.05% chance of dying COVID-19. The average is 0.46% You are in the lowest risk band for dying from COVID-19."

Thus it appears that despite all the positive aspects and no comorbidities, then age alone is the determinative aspect that will place one in the highest risk category from the lowest. But I thank and give glory to God for my overall good health, despite arthritics and occasional angina.