Posted on 01/11/2021 1:16:20 PM PST by Onthebrink
Roughly one in every fifteen Americans have now tested positive for the novel coronavirus, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
Over the past weekend, the United States surpassed twenty-two million cases and 370,000 related deaths—both figures by far the highest among all countries.
Health officials, however, are anticipating even darker days ahead despite the surge in cases and fatalities in recent weeks.
(Excerpt) Read more at 19fortyfive.com ...
Off-topic thank you! Although I've been considering changing my tag line, in view of the fact that we have not been able to avoid communist take-over of the US. I'm not looking forward to the days after Jan 20.
“since mid-November, making Covid-19 the top killer these days.”
This wave is the biggest so far, compared to the March/April or June/July waves. This coronavirus seems to be seasonal, like more than half of coronaviruses are.
Other Freepers have pointed out that local COVID outbreaks during this cold and flu seasons are generally three week local surges, with many occurring in different areas, at different times.
In some years, flu will crest early in the season, sometimes in the middle, and sometimes later in the season. It is likely (but not certain) that COVID has been having a seasonal peak of its own, and would naturally slack off a bit toward the end of the season.
If that effect does occur, coupled with the mass vaccination, we should see the disease (mortality and serious hospitalizations) start to collapse in the wild in a month or two.
if you haven’t gotten Covid yet, you will unless you get the vaccine
Pure speculation....which vaccine by the way?
The shutdowns do work
If they work, why after weeks and months of shutdowns in NY is Cuomo finally opening the economy?
dueling numbers huh.
i’ll take my research over yours.
Which sounds scarier:
1 In Every 15 Americans Test Positive For Coronavirus
6.9% Americans Test Positive For Coronavirus
Well, it’s certainly serious for a small proportion of the population.
I won’t be found in that group, as I refuse to be tested, or vaccinated.
If you think about it, it’s the truth. There’s no way you won’t get it eventually. It is “novel”. Our thymus gland has no memory of this pathogen so we’re all susceptible hosts but some more so than others. If you come into contact with an infectious dose (which appears to be very minute), you’re gonna get it. What’s more, it has proven that it is highly transmissible i.e. contagious. Look at the number of positive cases already in less than a year. This virus is highly transmissible for a number of reasons so you are at some point going to come into contact with it unless you quarantine yourself forever and once that happens, you’re gonna have to fight it. Most people will be well equipped to do so but a small percentage will not be and they will require hospitalization.
Today’s Americans would never have settled this land.
Imagine a virus so dangerous that 11 months into the “pandemic” we’re still arguing over whether it is a real threat or not. The modern West is so weak-willed it is no wonder we just got rolled by a global communist coup.
... Coca Cola tests positive
“Coca Cola tests positive”
And yet nobody’s talking about it.
Reading the fine print, the "estimated" part is actually the expected number of deaths from all causes. The "all-causes" number of deaths CDC uses comes from all accumulated death certificates, and please note that those can be very "laggy". CDC won't have a final number for total actual deaths for 2020 until well into 2021. That said, the estimate of "expected" deaths "should" at least attempt to account for that lag. I personally think CDC is generally both slow and very incompetent, but with this sort of data they are actually fairly good and the slowness of getting it is not all their fault. When my Dad passed, it took well over a month for us to get his Death Certificate.
CDC estimated that as of Dec. 11, 2020, 91 million people in the US had been infected with COVID-19. 77 million symptomatic, 3.4 million hospitalizations.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
I assume that page will be updated in a week or two.
Actually, they are claiming much huger amounts of symptomatic spread:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
Or, see my post immediately above.
your citing cdc death certificate data is perhaps not subject to dominion-like manipulation, like most county counts of covid19.
i’d say *all* the so called official covid19 data sources and models are suspect and have been from the beginning, the cdc not the least of those suspects. my contacts say the cdc failed them from the beginning with the first tests they put out, forcing our lab to act against the cdc to develop their own tests and procedures for dealing with covid19. you really shouldn’t trust anything coming out of there.
also, the two counties where i live have had many cases of strange/wildly fluctuating data reports that couon web sites reporting covid19 statistics to the general public, but used to justify nonsensical policies instituted by our county medical authorities, like keeping schools closed down. not surprising since the people running various services in our counties are to put it mildly, corrupt and incompetent, based on my personal knowledge and my contacts.
many other sources have predicted excess deaths **in various categories** due to the lockdowns, not the virus. and i’m seeing that in the data/reports i trust. so it makes sense to predict some excess deaths due to the lockdowns, coupled with some amount of deaths due to covid19 as a *major* cause. to simplify a bit, the data from my lab early on indicated roughly about a 1/10 positive covid19 for people who had symptoms, and 1/10 of those hospitalized, and then about 1/10 of those hospitalized dying due to covid19 as major cause. that has held pretty constant since then with the death rate decreasing over time as more tests were done, and treatments developed.
my recollection, the overall natural odds death rate in our state was about 0.05% as of the last back of envelope calc i did a month ago. natural odds of being infected was about 1/5000, by my calc. of course, if you’re being careful, and having an elderly mom, for whom i’m the prime caregiver, i have to be careful. those odds go way down, imo.
in short, i was fortunate in my situation to have very early access to the data from a good reference lab associated with a major medical school that keeps accurate internal data on testing, treatments, outcomes and analyze covid19 data from that view point.
it was possible to take that data and work forwards from that to get a good idea of what’s really going on medically with covid19. imo, from that vantage point, you can judge whether the models and/or gov’t or other source data is reasonable. it was not, and it still is not, imo.
add in closely following all the other reports especially from countries like sweden, costa rica, etc. gives you, imo, a much better picture of it all.
from all of that data, plus my own back of the envelope calculations, i draw my own conclusions, act to protect my family accordingly. i can say. so far so good, for me and mine. we have protected and cared our vulnerable, but not stopped living our lives due to this virus.
ok, that’s my piece and i don’t expect anyone to accept it on my word. you don’t know me from adam. do your own research.
Well, I have been following data from various countries, more so back when one of our FReepers was posting exhaustive data, but definitely even less so the past couple weeks (really got busy over / after Christmas.) And, sure, there are many considerations: For example, traffic deaths are down in all the states near me. Suicides and overdose deaths are up. I’m sure fatalities due to “shutdown” and restrictions disruptions of other medical care are up.
It’s perhaps not a major factor, but my family just experienced one of those disruptions. Last week my Mom had to go by ambulance to the hospital in her town due to GI bleeding. (Long story itself, not COVID related.) 160+ bed hospital. The ER stabilized her, but, due to COVID-19, everything unique to GI treatment (including personnel) has been moved to another very similar hospital: It is about an hour to the north by ambulance. 2nd hospital is not even part of the same health care group. Plus, no visitors allowed. So, there are three negatives / risks right there: No GI specialists at “Mom’s” regular hospital, as there usually would be, the trip, and, no visitors. (My Mom took that last very hard. Luckily, for this situation only, @ present I was able to call her 4-5 times a day and got several other relatives and friends involved. So, that helped. Not all patients would be so lucky, and obviously mental outlook is very important.)
Anecdotally, my wife and I are members of churches in two different communities (long story), her church is about 75 miles from mine, her community fairly conservative in a conservative state, my church is in a fairly liberal college town in a very liberal state. Both churches lean toward a little older demographic than the general population, which may (may) explain why total fatalities in both congregations were about double in 2020 what they were in 2019. It COULD just be bad luck, but the congregations (esp. hers) are large enough that is not LIKELY the case, barring something like a very bad church van crash or similar. (None such has occurred.)
In any event, when all the counting is done (by 2022?) I expect a jump of 300k minimum deaths from all causes from 2019 to 2020. 400k would not surprise me as an upper bound.
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