Reading the fine print, the "estimated" part is actually the expected number of deaths from all causes. The "all-causes" number of deaths CDC uses comes from all accumulated death certificates, and please note that those can be very "laggy". CDC won't have a final number for total actual deaths for 2020 until well into 2021. That said, the estimate of "expected" deaths "should" at least attempt to account for that lag. I personally think CDC is generally both slow and very incompetent, but with this sort of data they are actually fairly good and the slowness of getting it is not all their fault. When my Dad passed, it took well over a month for us to get his Death Certificate.
your citing cdc death certificate data is perhaps not subject to dominion-like manipulation, like most county counts of covid19.
i’d say *all* the so called official covid19 data sources and models are suspect and have been from the beginning, the cdc not the least of those suspects. my contacts say the cdc failed them from the beginning with the first tests they put out, forcing our lab to act against the cdc to develop their own tests and procedures for dealing with covid19. you really shouldn’t trust anything coming out of there.
also, the two counties where i live have had many cases of strange/wildly fluctuating data reports that couon web sites reporting covid19 statistics to the general public, but used to justify nonsensical policies instituted by our county medical authorities, like keeping schools closed down. not surprising since the people running various services in our counties are to put it mildly, corrupt and incompetent, based on my personal knowledge and my contacts.
many other sources have predicted excess deaths **in various categories** due to the lockdowns, not the virus. and i’m seeing that in the data/reports i trust. so it makes sense to predict some excess deaths due to the lockdowns, coupled with some amount of deaths due to covid19 as a *major* cause. to simplify a bit, the data from my lab early on indicated roughly about a 1/10 positive covid19 for people who had symptoms, and 1/10 of those hospitalized, and then about 1/10 of those hospitalized dying due to covid19 as major cause. that has held pretty constant since then with the death rate decreasing over time as more tests were done, and treatments developed.
my recollection, the overall natural odds death rate in our state was about 0.05% as of the last back of envelope calc i did a month ago. natural odds of being infected was about 1/5000, by my calc. of course, if you’re being careful, and having an elderly mom, for whom i’m the prime caregiver, i have to be careful. those odds go way down, imo.
in short, i was fortunate in my situation to have very early access to the data from a good reference lab associated with a major medical school that keeps accurate internal data on testing, treatments, outcomes and analyze covid19 data from that view point.
it was possible to take that data and work forwards from that to get a good idea of what’s really going on medically with covid19. imo, from that vantage point, you can judge whether the models and/or gov’t or other source data is reasonable. it was not, and it still is not, imo.
add in closely following all the other reports especially from countries like sweden, costa rica, etc. gives you, imo, a much better picture of it all.
from all of that data, plus my own back of the envelope calculations, i draw my own conclusions, act to protect my family accordingly. i can say. so far so good, for me and mine. we have protected and cared our vulnerable, but not stopped living our lives due to this virus.
ok, that’s my piece and i don’t expect anyone to accept it on my word. you don’t know me from adam. do your own research.