Threat Matrix 2021

Get the feeling things in the world are coming unglued? Buckle your seat belts.

Wuhan virus -
Fauci’s, testimony before Congress on Tuesday may have resulted in him committing perjury. This occurred when Sen Paul challenged him if he still supported the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding the questionable Wuhan lab in China. Fauci’s reply was, “The NIH has not ever and does not now fund gain of function research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.” Evidence is pretty solid Fauci is lying, but as with most congressional testimony - nothing will be done about the perjury.

FDA is allowing shots to be given to those under 18. CDC statistics show that the risk from being struck by lightning is greater than their dying from wuhan. The big push for ‘vaccination’ in this age group may well have ulterior motives IMHO.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab has been planning on implanting microchips in people since at least 2016 as revealed in an interview with a French reporter from the period.
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Economy -
Motiva Enterprises LLC’s 607,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) in Port Arthur, Texas, one of the US’ largest petroleum refineries shut down on Monday due to the Colonial Pipeline outage. Wide spread fuel shortages are being experienced along the southeast and east coast area served by the Colonial pipeline. There is still no projected start up day although Colonial Pipeline Co. told federal officials it will know by late Wednesday whether it’s safe to restart gasoline and diesel flows that have been on hold since the hack. Gasoline prices have skyrocketed with limits being put on purchases (I’ve seen photos of people pulling up to stations with a half dozen 55-gal drums and filling them up) from those stations not emptied. EPA reportedly has suspended regulations to permit more gasoline to get into the region.

Nationally, the average retail gasoline price rose to $3.008 a gallon, the first time it’s exceeded $3 since October 2014, according to auto club AAA data.

To make gasoline issues worse, Michigan’s Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, is now attempting to shut down a pipeline running through her state. Enbridge, a Canadian energy company, has been ordered by the state to shut down an oil and gas pipeline by May 11. This pipeline serves upper midwest states. Enbridge has, for its part, refused to comply with Whitmer’s order and has done so with support from top Canadian officials. This will be headed to the courts.

Costco Wholesale Corp. , of Issaquah, Wash., and Sam’s Club, a unit of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., of Bentonville, Ark., limited consumer purchases of rice at their U.S. stores this week. Wal-Mart said while Sam’s has enough rice for customers, it would limit purchases to four 20-pound bags per visit “due to recent supply and demand trends.” Costco limited purchases in select stores. (WSJ)

Corn has increased 50% over last year. Not only will that impact us at the grocery store but corn for feed will increase prices for those animals that eat it as well.

More on the inflation front, consumer prices jumped higher than expected in April, data from the Department of Labor showed Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index climbed 4.2 percent annually in April. Compared with March, prices rose 0.8 percent. The annual inflation figure is the largest increase since 2008. Economists had forecast a year-over-year gain of 3.6 percent and 0.2 percent for the month. This is the biggest jump since Sept 2008 and corresponds with supply chain issues as well.

Steel and copper prices continue to rise to new highs.
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Biden watch -
biden continues to get lost reading the teleprompter. . . .
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CW2/Domestic violence -
BLM/Antifa is expected to pick up in the next few days as groups are organizing pro-palestinian / anti - Israel “protests” in at least a dozen cities.
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Cyber Warfare -
The hackers that took down the Colonial Pipeline, known as DarkSide are apparently a Russian or eastern European hacking group. According to Boston-based Cybereason, DarkSide is an organized group of hackers set up along the “ransomware as a service” business model, meaning the DarkSide hackers develop and market ransomware hacking tools, and sell them to other criminals who then carry out attacks. Think of it as the evil twin of a Silicon Valley software start-up.
Some reports indicate a criminal intent, not one as part of a national policy .
In a parallel note - Leftist groups have discussed the use of cyber attacks to further enable protests. They look to do this by accessing alarm and surveillance systems for govt buildings and disabling them - permitting increased chaos and destruction.
Also remember - US adversaries like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran harbor significant cyber capabilities.
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India/China -
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is bolstering its long range missile capabilities along the border with India. According to Chinese state media (CCTV), the PLA is now fielding an upgraded version of the PHL-03 long range, truck-mounted, multi-rocket launchers with artillery battalions under the Xinjiang Military Command (XMC). The XMC artillery units are stationed in the plateaus of the disputed Kashmir region where the PLA clashed with Indian troops in June 2020. The new digital version of the PHL-03 will give the PLA an edge to reach out and touch Indian forces. In addition, PLA troops in the Himalayas have also recently received a bevy of updated Type 15 lightweight tanks and its most powerful PCL-181 155mm artillery platforms. Drones “modified for high-plateau conditions,” exoskeleton suits, oxygen generators, solar-power supplied berthings, fresh water pumps, and internet hot spots.
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Russia - MAINTAINING WATCH
Concern continues as collective intel sources indicate that Russia has not redeployed the 100,000 troops within striking distance of Ukraine. The equipment remains in place and it appears many of the soldiers are as well, keeping tensions elevated.
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Ukraine -
Most current conflict in the Dombas region centers on the city of Donetsk, but does spread along the line of contact.
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Israel - WAR
SO much has happened in the past couple days, here is the latest roundup I’ve been able to put together. This is going long folks.

Hamas, Palestine Jihad and Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades in the Gaza Strip have fired thousands of rockets toward Jerusalem and central Israel, setting off air raid sirens throughout the whole region. Massive rocket barrages in the hundreds at once designed to overwhelm Iron Dome defenses have been partly effective. Videos of Iron Dome response are incredible. Rocket fire volumes like this have never been seen before.
Rocket fire appears to be down slightly from last night, but both sides are declaring no quarter and expect more to continue. Not all of the Gazan launches have been successful as several hundred failed and fell back into the Gaza Strip. The IDF warned residents of Gaza on Tuesday to stay away from any locations where Hamas weapons are stored for their own safety.

Videos of IAF strikes are also incredible - most generating secondary explosions.

In addition to rockets, Hamas has deployed ATGM teams to sharp shoot into Israel. Israel has been taking them out efficiently using drones and helicopters though.

Israel has also hit at least 2 infiltration tunnels, killing a couple dozen Hamas.

Israel is fighting back with hundreds of air sorties, leveling large areas of Gaza. The IDF eliminated three senior Hamas officials: Gaza Brigade commander Bassam Issa, Khan Younis Brigade commander Rafa Salama and Hamas intelligence chief Mohammed Yazouri. Additionally, IAF has taken out at least two other Hamas senior commanders, may be more. In a joint operation by the IDF and Shin Bet, senior members of Hamas’ General Staff Forum were killed in Gaza City and Khan Yunis. The militants are considered close to the head of the military wing of the Hamas organisation, Muhammad Deif. Also Hassan Kaogi, head of the Hamas military intelligence security department & his deputy Wail Issa, head of the military intelligence counterespionage department have been terminated.
Stated Israeli operation goals include targeting -

- Multi-story buildings used by terror organizations. (Hamas if following a Hezbollah tactic of using the underground garages for operations -independent of what the above ground structure is for. IAF has taken down at least one 14 floor structure so far.
- Underground infrastructure and interests
- Eliminate and target top leaders
- Underground rocket launchers
- Homes of the leaders who went underground to hide”

There have been reports of Egypt trying to broker a cease fire, but that has been denied by Israel. Netanyahu has said in essence Israel is going to silence Hamas first.

Armor being deployed to the border and reserves being called up. It is very likely that a ground operation will occur to clean up remnants of the air campaign.

Rioting is continuing in / around the temple mount as Palestinians continue. Other clashes between Palestinians/arabs and Israeli police scattered throughout the country. The most serious actions are in the city of Lod where the mayor has declared that “civil war” has broken out. Israel Police Commissioner Yaakov Shabtai called the situation unprecedented. “We are seeing a situation in mixed cities that we have never seen before, including the incidents of October 2000,” he said, referring to the wave of riots that broke out among Arab Israelis in October 2000 – the early days of the Second Intifada. Several companies of special police have been deployed to Lod to restore order. Arabs in Lod destroyed at least 3 synagogues and burned up dozens of cars and other buildings.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged Palestinians to step up their “resistance.” So far Hezbollah and Iran have been watching from the sidelines.

biden is reported to be sending a State department “representative” to try to negotiate peace. If Trump were still charge, he’d be sending Israel more bunker buster bombs.

OBSERVATION -
Hamas doesn’t have the legs so to speak for a prolonged shoot out with Israel. Seems like the tempo of their rocket launches has dropped from yesterday as IAF takes out launchers and storage bunkers. If/when IDF ground forces enter Gaza the fat lady will be warming up and the resolve in Israel is to push Hamas and other islamic terror groups back into the stone age.
MY concern is Hezbollah/Iran’s willingness to step in to take the pressure off Gaza. Israel has been planning and training for a two front war for many years and has taken steps not to repeat the failures of the last incursion into Lebanon. Hezbollah is a greater rocket threat, but Israel has better intelligence as well and is willing to take out military targets embedded in civilian areas. Iran for its part is likely to just support its proxies in the region. It can only strike with long range rockets that would be susceptible to Israeli ballistic defense systems. Such an attack would be an open invitation for Israel to strike key Iranian facilities openly. This includes the recent drone/cruse missile technology and attack strategy that Iran has developed through the Houthi / Saudi Arabian wars. Iran could also try to shut down the Straits or play other games in the gulf region. Either case, Iran could face significant losses.
Israel for its part will feel less restrained against Iran should Hezbollah enter the fight. Iran is tightly involved in equipping and planning for an eventual attack. Israeli strikes would involve Syria (at least initially) against Iranian/Hezbollah facilities and as in the past Syrian ADA will attempt to stop. This will bring Syria into the cross hairs, given that Israel has gone out of the way to avoid Syrian targets except for some ADA assets in the past. This expansion could cause some Russian involvement. Russia has in the past issued warnings to Israel to contain the extent of its strikes in Syria.

One thing is for sure, Iran/Hezbollah and other nations involved in the middle east are closely monitoring the operations of the Iron Dome and affiliated rocket defense systems and evaluating the effectiveness of massive salvos of missiles to reach the targets by overwhelming the system.
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Iran -
A U.S. Coast Guard cutter Maui fired 30 warning shots at more than a dozen Iranian gunboats that “conducted unsafe and unprofessional maneuvers” near a formation of U.S. Navy ships — including a guided-missile submarine — in the Strait of Hormuz, the Pentagon said on Monday.
OBSERVATION - Not sure how aggressive Iran or US will get in the near future given the war between Israel and Hamas, et al. As noted under Israel, Iran has a lot to lose if it gets too engaged either way, creating a two front war for it.
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Woah boy, here we go again.

Economy -
Colonial Pipeline announced that it had initiated the restart of pipeline operations yesterday (May 12) at approximately 5 p.m. ET. Following this restart, it will take several days for the product delivery supply chain to return to normal. Some markets served by Colonial Pipeline may experience, or continue to experience, intermittent service interruptions during the start-up period. Colonial will move as much gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel as is safely possible and will continue to do so until markets return to normal. As of this morning there have been no reported problems with restart.
Over 2000 gasoline stations are out of fuel and it will be several days until the system returns to normal.

Increased inflation numbers have hammered the markets. More analysts coming out and saying that stagflation has returned with vengeance. Those of us who remember the Carter years recognize the damage this will cause to the country. Fact is, it will be worse since so much has been lost overseas since then. Trump said it all yesterday “To compare biden to Carter is a grave disservice to Jimmy Carter” . . . . . .

Besides chicken shortages, Chick-fil-A will limit the number of condiments allowed per customer amid an industry-wide supply shortage, the firm said.

Federal Spending, Taxes, and Deficit All Set Records Through April. Not a good factor for the economy in general.
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Invasion of Illegals -
According to data released by CBP, there were 178,622 encounters between Border Patrol agents and illegal immigrants in April, up from the March record of 173,348. March’s total had been noted as the highest in the past 20 years.
The April figure represents a 944 percent increase from April 2020, when — as the coronavirus was putting its grip on North America — there were 17,106 encounters.

biden order restart of wall construction of a 13 mile segment in the Rio Grande Valley. Reports don’t really say if this is do to a change in heart of his policy or contractural requirements that would bite the govt BIG TIME.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
NYC was hit with violence between pro-palestine Antifa protestors and pro-Israel counter protestors. The number of pro-palestine Antifa supported protests are increasing nationwide and the violence in NYC indicate that they have potential to go violent.

Biden Officials Ignore BLM-Antifa Riots, Say ‘White Supremacy’ is Greatest Threat to America. The Hill reports that “Both Garland and Mayorkas testified that white supremacist groups pose the most serious domestic national security threat in the U.S., reinforcing what analysts have long concluded about far-right organizations,”.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
More than 120 retired military flag officers warned that America is under “tremendous assault” from socialist and Marxist ideologies, encouraging more citizens to counter the dangerous subversion. A line in the sand against the similar letter from military officers condemning the right and popping the salute to implement said ideologies to our military.
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Cyber Warfare -
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued an emergency alert (AA21-131A) to companies to defend against DarkSide Ransomware attacks. The interim report suggests several software and human-centric approaches such as enforcing two-factor authentication and red-team exercises to limit unauthorized access.

Buried under the Colonial Pipeline hack, the DC Washington Metropolitan Police Department was hacked and personnel files downloaded earlier this month. Ransomware was also reportedly installed on the network. The attackers posted a ransom note claiming they had stolen more than 250 GB of data and threatening to publish the material if they were not paid. The ransomware group Babuk claimed credit for the attack, posting screenshots of the note that were flagged by cybersecurity researchers.The hackers then threatened to release those files to the public if their demands were met. Today they started to release files. Since January, 26 government agencies based within the United States have been hit by ransomware, Neal Dennis, a threat intelligence specialist at the cybersecurity firm Cyware, said.
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China -
(FO) The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Navy (PLAN) recently completed a series of landing drills with a range of various amphibious platforms and weapons systems. Videos released by the PLAN on Monday show Eastern Theater Command marines, armor, and various landing craft moving from sea-to-shore via a Type 071 amphibious transport dock (LPD), the Yimengshan. According to the PLAN, these drills were “aimed at training marines in rapid response in enemy territory.” The PLAN also recently released video of similar amphibious landing docks and ship-borne helicopters.
These exercises are another indicator that China is pushing to expand its amphibious capabilities in the Pacific, and is likely preparing for future amphibious operations in Taiwan.
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Israel - WAR

CURRENT ANNOUNCED MILITARY OBJECTIVES - The Israeli security cabinet approved the military plans for broadening the operation against Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Israeli officials said there is no deadline for ending the operation but it will focus for now on air strikes with no ground forces. Netanyahu said at the cabinet meeting that Israel doesn’t want a cease fire at the moment. Both Netanyahu and Foreign minister Ashkenazi said the international community understands Israel’s actions and doesn’t put pressure to end the operation for now.

IDF soldiers, armor and equipment continues to move into positions near the Gaza border.

At the time of my writing this, an estimated 2000+ rockets have been fired at Israel over the past three days. Overnight (US) it seems the volume of rocket fire has dropped, though still nearly continuous with longer pauses between launches.
While Hama’s launch tempo is down, IAF continues its heavy bombardment of Hamas, et al structures, facilities and storage areas.

Hamas has opened up a new tactic - armed dones. They were active initially , but now are being relied on more by Hamas as the rocket campaign starts to drop off. Hamas announces it launched a number of attacks on Israel with suicide drones. One drone target was suspected to be an Iron Dome battery.

Ashkelon appears to be bearing the brunt of the yesterdays rocket salvo attacks intended to overwhelm Iron Dome. Some also note that many of the rockets are longe range and flying at a low trajectory, making Iron Dome intercept more difficult.

NOTE - the performance of Iron Dome amazes me. Israel has continually updated the system and had demonstrated the ability to track and intercept multiple targets at the same time, but those demonstrations understated greatly the capability of the system. Videos showing the system defending one of the 100+ rocket attacks is stunning - showing the system has a lot more capability than has been revealed.

IDF fighter jets struck a 14-story building in southern Gaza, which housed Hamas military intelligence offices & infrastructure used to communicate tactical-military information. Civilians in the building were warned to leave and provided with sufficient time to evacuate. IDF this evening attacked Hamas Ministry of Finance, banks and money warehouses in the Gaza Strip. A senior security official explained that these sites fund terrorist acts and help Hamas control the Gaza Strip.

Hamas officials killed by IDF so far: Jomaa Tahla, Bassem Issa, Sami Radwan, Wael Issa, Hassan Kahwaji, Jamal Zabada, Hazem Khatib, Walid Shmali, Thafer Shua, Mohammad Fares, Mujahed Hadid

PM Netanyahu wants to send army to mixed cities as fighting between Jewish and Arabs spread. The last couple days arabs/Palestinian residents attacked jewish synagogues and businesses. Overnight conflict expanded with jewish citizens are burning arab businesses and relate. Addressing the rioters Netanyahu said “we cannot accept anarchy. Nothing justifies it. Nothing justifies Arabs lynching Jews and nothing justifies Jews lynching Arabs...We will bring rule of law to the cities of Israel.”

The Russian deputy foreign minister held talks with the deputy chairman of Hamas. He said that Hamas is ready to stop actions against Israel on a reciprocal basis . Egypt and Qatar pushing for ceasefire, Israel refusing. Officials say Egyptian delegation is in Tel Aviv in effort to negotiate a cease-fire in escalating Gaza conflict. Biden says he spoke with Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu. He says Israel has the right to defend itself against thousands of rockets flying into its territory and his hope is that this violence will come to a conclusion sooner rather than later.

OBSERVATIONS - Hamas et al still has a few tricks up its sleeves as seen by the switch to drones but is running out of gas. Drop in the rocket saturation overnight shows that the continuous IAF counter strikes are having an effect as Hamas looses launchers, rockets and senior (and junior) leadership. Their plight is evident in their being the first to call for a cease fire. Israel OTOH is determined to use this to pound them to the point where they are no longer a significant threat. This is in context to the sporadic attacks in the past but more so in the face of Hezbollah threats and concern over a two front war. The next step to watch for is an IAF ground offensive to clean out remaining facilities, fighters and leaders. Netanyahu has threatened this over the past couple years when Hamas got froggy with rocket launches, which they ceased after military movement indicators Israel was ready to invade. This time Hamas got caught with its neck sticking out and Netanyahu whats to cut it off. I don’t expect a cessation of war to stop any time soon, but do expect Hamas to cry for ceasefire even more.

This war has also nearly destroyed the coexistence of Israeli arabs and jews. Israeli arabs have the same rights as jews in the country and have lived very peacefully over the years - a fact largely overlooked/ignored by anti-Israeli pundits. The near civil war conditions in mixed cities will cause review of internal security and procedures - possibly strict measures in these mixed towns.
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Iran -
Iraniian Caspian Airlines EP-SHH was tracked making a “dark flight” from Tehran, to Damascus, Syria today. This aircraft has a reported history of being used to move missile parts/military equipment from Iran to Syria. In previous instances she arrived several hours before IDF airstrikes.

Iranian IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) is building catamaran (twin hull) type combat ships. The three new catamarans have been named the Shahid (martyr) Soleimani class. They provide more capability to be armed than the current, smaller high speed attack boat Iran uses, with little loss of speed. Recently, one of these catamaran along with fast attack boats harasses US vessels in the Persian gulf region. The capability to be more heavily armed, yet retain the speed and some maneuverability of the smaller high speed attack boats is enticing.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Azerbaijani armed formations, entered the Black Lake area in Syunik early on Wednesday morning. Syunik Governor Melikset Poghosyan said that he had just been at the place where Azerbaijani troops advanced, claiming that this is their territory. “They have maps showing that it is their territory, but this is our territory, really ours. Armenian acting PM Pashinyan confirmed: Azerbaijani forces crossed the state border of Armenia, advanced 3.5 kilometers inland and are trying to occupy the Black Lake of Syunik region. Negotiations were conducted to solve issue peacefully and those Azeri forces pulled back.
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Black Swans -
The drought conditions in western US are raising serious concerns. California has issued alerts for 40 counties as last winters precipitation was less than 40% of normal. This will hit consumer pocket books later this year due to crop shortages from America’s breadbasket.

Tempo of events is speeding up.

Wuhan virus -
CDC new guidance - If you are fully vaccinated, you can resume activities that you did prior to the pandemic. Expect this to be used to put more pressure on the unvaccinated.

India reports over 4000 deaths in a day.
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Economy -
Nearly one-quarter of the money in circulation has been created since Jan 2020. Some are very concerned that the unprecedented flood of all this money into the system will trigger hyperinflation in combination with chronic shortages of goods and services.

Out of Black Swan and into mainstream. Food prices will continue to rise for at least the rest of the year due to a climate pattern called Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is happening now, typically leads to 20-30 year drought conditions impacting crops. This is the same drought currently affecting California and the Western US, China and Taiwan and Central/South America. Drought is threatening semiconductor production in Taiwan. It’s also affecting crop production in South America, while lower river levels disrupt barges carrying crops out to the Atlantic Ocean. Roughly 85% of Mexico is experiencing drought, as well. In California, it is so bad that drinking water in Los Angeles is being pitted against the farmers who grow 90% of the country’s fruits and vegetables.

One of the biggest buzz words lately has been “Transitory inflation”. The intent is to infer that any inflation will be short and we will quickly resume previous inflationary status. Well, that is the sweet talk from the Fed and Dept of the Treasury. Other metrics are more and more indicating that inflation will be running a lot longer, and higher than we are being told. Again, Stagflation is being associated with it - even by the MSM that becomes brave enough to report on it.

Rumors are Colonial Pipeline paid almost $5 million in ransom to hackers last Friday despite reports that said the company had no intention of paying...

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Biden watch -
NYT reports that Biden has a short temper and sometimes unloads outbursts of profanity on his aides. The report also reveals Biden will hang up the phone on people who he feels are wasting his time. Potential signs of mental instability?
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CW2/Domestic violence -
This being Friday, expect increasing Antifa riots in support of Gaza and Hamas. Many have been scheduled and many more likely to pop up with high chance of violence.

Haven’t been commenting on this much as I’m skeptical about much of the reports coming out, but his has hit multiple respected sources. Maricopa County deleted entire databases prior to turning over election equipment to the AZ Senate for the forensic audit now occurring. The Senate President Karen Fann today sent a letter to the County Election’s Board for an explanation. This is a smoking gun, gross violation of the law and violation of the court order. If they will go this far to hide the data - then what ARE they hiding. This fight over election fraud may not be settled after this canvas, but is the main thrust. If the dominos start to fall, chances for increased civil violence increase.
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Strategic Developments /Deployments -
The U.S. military this week has pulled out of Kandahar Airfield, a sprawling base located outside Afghanistan’s second-largest city, a U.S. official based in Kabul confirms to Fox News.
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Cyber Warfare -
President Biden on Thursday said Russian President Vladimir Putin “was not” involved in the devastating ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline. “I am confident that I’ve read the report of the FBI accurately. And they say they were not, he was not. The government was not,”
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Israel - WAR

The intensity and tempo of the conflict makes is a challenge to summarize and analyze.

On May 14, 1948, 73 years ago Israel declared independence and was attacked by 6 foreign armies.

Hamas et al continued to fire rocket barrages at Israeli cities, though numbers less than previous days. Current count is over 2000 rockets since Monday, most of those (about 1500) were fired within the first 48 hours.

On Thursday Israeli troops were observed assembling near the Gaza’s border amid widespread rumors of preparations for a ground invasion. Reuters is reporting that additional forces have arrived to Israel’s southern border after last night Israel’s Security Cabinet approved expanding operations in Gaza, especially the airstrikes which are expected to continue through the week. Further on Thursday Defense Minister Benny Gantz has called up extra Border Patrol reserves to help quell the ethnic attacks and chaos breaking out across multiple mixed Jewish-Arab towns and cities.
Gantz called in a “massive reinforcement” of reserve forces to help get control of the spiraling domestic situation which has seen Jewish mobs and Arab mobs clash and essentially hunt each other down in the streets, resulting in what many are calling lynching situations.

Reports that Israel has activated an additional 9,000 Reservists - on top of the 7,000 activated earlier this week . Twitter reports numerous convoys of armor and equipment being transported to the Gaza border. Growing evidence that Israel is preparing for ground offensive.

With that said, reports I’ve read this morning indicate that the rampant rumors are yesterday of a ground assault may have been a ruse to trick Hamas into thinking it was the real thing. This caused Hamas fighters to enter the underground tunnel system in Gaza City. Israel then bombarded the tunnels with intense airstrikes. One of the tunnel system targeted is the ‘Metro’ tunnel system in Gaza. Some have referred to it has an underground ‘city’ used by Hamas. IAF video of the strikes show intense bombing of the system. Hamas casualty count unknown. (The purpose of going to the tunnels is to permit IAF units to pass by then they can pop up in the rear - a form of literally ‘going to ground’). The intensity of both air and ground strikes was reportedly something not seen. IAF had 130 aircraft bombing these tunnel locations while artillery, armor, mortar and other ground fire into Gaza as huge. Video of Gaza this morning shows much of the area covered in a heavy smoke/dust.

Israel’s relentless counter strikes are visibly having an effect. Attacks overnight, in-combination with Army asset fire, were the largest of the conflict so far. Hamas salvos are half what they were and more poorly coordinated. Comments from certain Hamas-linked Telegram accounts seem to suggest that widespread communication failures are resulting in significant disruptions to larger scale, coordinated rocket attacks.

Three rockets were fired from Lebanon into the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of northern Israel overnight (Israel time). The three rockets are suspected of being GRADs. No evidence of just who fired them or authorized the action. Sources close to Hezbollah say rockets were launched towards Israel but emphasis that “it is not Hezbollah that fired these rockets. Hamas, PIJ, PFLP, PFLP-GC and other factions are present in Lebanon. Lebanese Security Forces have reportedly arrested the individuals south of Tyre, Lebanon who fired the rockets at Israel. Lebanese army found three additional rockets near al-Rachidiyeh refugee camp, most likely in preparation to be fired at Israel.
NOTE - this was a close call. Lebanon reacted quickly because the last thing they want is what little is left of their country to be turned to rubble.

Syrian sources reporting that the Israeli Air Force attacked a vehicle carrying weapons in the Al-Antalya area of Syria near the Al-Harmal area in northern Lebanon. It was further stated that the attack caused damage to property only.
NOTE - This may be associated with the cell that launched 3 rockets from Lebanon. Terrorists trying to divert Israeli resources away from Gaza.

The US reportedly has evacuated about 120 civilians and military from Israel, taking them via C17 to Germany.

OBSERVATION AND SUMMARY - Israel now seems to have the upper hand against Hamas et al and is going to continue to push to obliterate it’s abilities and leadership to the greatest extent possible. I think this includes a ground assault to clean out the areas missed/overlooked by IAF. Hamas elements in Lebanon will still try to launch attacks, but Lebanese army will probably be on them like white on rice. They want to avoid a repeat of Gaza in their country and I don’t think Hezebollah is ready to jump in at this moment.
One thing is likely, this war may have sealed an electoral victory for Netanyahu in the upcoming elections. This would break the governmental gridlock and disorder seen over the past couple years with consecutive elections. This is already apparent in that the “coalition of change” of political parties determined to end Netanyahu’s 12-year reign as prime minister seemed to be crumbling Thursday night as Yamina leader Naftali Bennett told associates he believed the option of such a government was no longer viable. Bennett also noted such a government would unable to deal with the ongoing violent clashes between Jews and Arabs and would also be unable to rely on support from Islamist Ra’am party leader Mansour Abbas, whose four Knesset seats were key to a majority government.
Finally, so far biden has kept his nose out of the conflict, only expressing support for Israel’s right of self defense. So too has most of the world been pretty quiet.
I see no end to this war in the short term.
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Afghanistan -
US pullout above.
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Black Swans -
Drought in the US has now caused concern over potential black/brown outs from shortages of electricity across most of the west due to loss of hydropower - a major component of the grid source.

Wuhan virus -
The saga and confusion over who wears mask and where continues. One end result is clearly creating a new schism in society - vaxxed vs unvaxxed.
However, major store chains like Walmart have ceased their mask requirements. Locally, in the Redoubt people have been blowing the mask requirement off for weeks. Other neanderthal states like NY and NJ are retaining the requirement.

Dr. Ryan Cole, owner and operator of Cole Diagnostics has stated the obvious that the MSM won’t touch. “We’ve seen more deaths from this shot than all vaccines in the last 20 years combined — and that’s just in the first 4 to 5 months,” Current deaths attributed to the “vaccines” (primarily Pfizer and Modera) are more than 4,434 (CDC).
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Globalism / Great Reset -
Ongoing current events in other categories all contribute to the planned global take over.
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Economy -
U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in April as the boost from stimulus checks faded, but an acceleration is likely in the coming months amid record savings and a reopening economy. The Commerce Department said on Friday the unchanged reading in retail sales last month followed a 10.7% surge in March, an upward revision from the previously reported 9.7% increase.
NOTE - The economy continues to stand on weak legs. Shortages and supply disruptions will continue to hamper growth. Stagflation and malaise increasingly appear of MSN related sites. People are seeing this. The University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment dropped 6.2 percent from the final April read just a few weeks earlier to a score of 82.8. Economists had forecast a gain to 90.3 from 88.3. “Consumer confidence in early May tumbled due to higher inflation–the highest expected year-ahead inflation rate as well as the highest long-term inflation rate in the past decade,” said Richard Curtin, the survey’s chief economist.

More fall out from the great Texas freeze out last winter. Almost three months after the fact, officials at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) admitted late last week that the manager of the Texas power grid did indeed cut off power to many key natural gas infrastructure segments during February’s arctic freeze event that blacked out power to millions of Texas homes and businesses. A report in the Houston Chronicle on Saturday noted that “ERCOT confirmed that it forced dozens of natural gas facilities to go offline during the February winter storm under a program that pays large industrial users to shut down when electricity supplies are short.”
OBSERVATION - They must have had the Three Stooges running ERCOT.
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Biden watch -
Biden’s “secret” Venmo account was uncovered, exposing closest friends, family, and allies. as well as their friends and family.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Again, multiple Antifa supported ‘protests’ in support of Gaza this weekend. Be situationally aware.
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Domestic Terror -
(AP) — A national terrorism alert issued Friday warns that violent extremists may take advantage of the easing of pandemic restrictions to conduct attacks. The alert does not cite any specific threats. But it warns of potential danger from an increasingly complex and volatile mix that includes domestic terrorists inspired by various grievances, racial or ethnic hatred and influences from abroad.
OBSERVATION - A very amorphous “threat” that could have been issued just about any day. Suspect that it is referring to the current Israeli/Gaza conflict and potential islamic attacks on Jewish targets.
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Russia - MAINTAINING WATCH
See Syria below.
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Israel - WAR

The intensity and tempo of the conflict makes is a challenge to summarize and analyze.

Israel and Hamas continue at it hammer and tongs, with neither side showing indications of wanting to stop. IDF reports approximately 2300 rockets have been fired at Israel since Monday, with about 1500 in the first 48 hours. Israeli areas being hardest his since Monday continues to be Ashdod city and Ashkelon city and surrounding communities. However, Gazan rockets have hammered Gaza itself,. with nearly a 20% failure rate. Big in the news cycle is Israel’s continued targeting of Hamas et al leadership and the leveling of apartment complexes housing Hamas offices and materials.

IDF howitzers are keeping a steady rate of shelling east Gaza city. IDF continues to build up ground forces in preparation for a probable ground assault. Hamas military spokesperson Abu Ubaida said: “We prepared ourselves to bomb Tel Aviv for 6 consecutive months, with God’s help.” This is the reason a ground offensive will be needed, to clean out the residue that air strikes cannot.

Overnight, Israel dropped the al-Jala’a tower in the center of Gaza city after “Knocking” (Israeli technique warning unassociated civilians to evacuate). In addition to Hamas, the building also housed media organizations including AP and Al-Jazeera’s livestream.

Leadership targeting continued with Israel bombing the home of a senior Hamas figures in a house in al-Shati camp, Gaza, Gaza news sources claim that 9 civilians including children were killed in the attack. Israel has taken out dozens of senior Hamas and other terror group leaders as well as countless lower level officers.

Three rockets were launched into Israel from Syria, one of the rockets failed, falling on the Syrian side of the border. The other two rockets fell in an open space. Hamas affiliated groups are present in Lebanon and Syria and do have their hands of some rockets, but unless they get lucky they will cause little damage since they appear to be the smaller, more man-portable variety.

Civil unrest in mixed Arab/Israeli cities has been reduced to a low simmer with the introduction of more police and military. Meanwhile, beyond the border, an estimated 500 protestors broke away towards the Israeli border from a larger protest of 2,000 people which was taking place in Jordan’s Karameh, northeast of Jericho. They began approaching the Allenby Bridge, known in Jordan as the King Hussein Bridge, and were forcibly dispersed by Jordanian riot police.

biden has sent $10 Million dollars to Gaza to unnamed Palestinian groups for some sort of amorphous purpose.

Follow up on the head faked “ground attack” Arutz Sheva removes the question mark and adds a metaphorical exclamation mark in “450 bombs in 35 minutes: This is how the IDF tricked Hamas.” Subhead: “IDF publishes unclear notice – causing Hamas to panic, escape into terror tunnels.” The story reports:
“Hamas’ underground city was hit with enormous force, and the IDF collapsed the terror tunnel system, on the heads of the terrorists hiding in the tunnels. During the attack, many kilometres of terror tunnels were destroyed. As of now, neither Israel nor Hamas is clear on the exact scope of the damage, but according to estimates, a large number of terrorists were buried in the sands beneath Gaza.”
NOTE - There may be a bit of propaganda in this Arutz Sheva article, but it reinforces what I said yesterday concerning the potential blow to Hamas in losing both the facilities and fighting personnel.

OBSERVATIONS - little change from yesterday. However, Hamas will be set back years following this war. Heavy facilities losses of rocket production and research and development capabilities, as senior Hamas engineers in the Gaza Strip have been eliminated. There are few Hamas operatives who are capable of emulating their expertise in rocket science. Significant damage was done to Hamas underground production sites and other infrastructure. There are few Hamas operatives who are capable of emulating their expertise in rocket science. IDF fighter jets and helicopters struck most of Hamas’ research and development sites as well, destroying laboratories and workshops. Hamas’ rocket production capacity has been severely damaged. Iran will be hampered to provide personnel and materials to fill the gaps. Unlike Hezbollah - the only way to resupply Hamas is by sea or limited smuggling via Egypt. Iran / Hezbollah could help train new leadership and researchers, but that will take years as well.
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Saudi Arabia -
In April 2021 Greece signed an agreement to send one of its six Patriot Air Defense batteries to Saudi Arabia. Forty Greek troops with Patriot experience will accompany the Greek battery and the Saudis will supply the rest of the hundred troops required to operate the battery. The Saudis requested the Patriot battery in 2019 and Greece initially agreed, but delayed sending the Patriot battery because their eastern neighbor, Turkey, suddenly became more of a threat. This deployment will help fill some of the gap left with the sudden withdrawal of US Patriot batteries.
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Syria -
The Russian Defense Ministry’s Syria reconciliation center said on Thursday that six American MRAP-type armored vehicles had taken an “uncoordinated route and without prior notice” in the Kurdish-held Syrian province of Hasakah. Russia’s military police patrol stopped the U.S. convoy and told it to head back in the opposite direction.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Armenia said on Friday that Azerbaijan had failed to fulfil a promise in full to withdraw troops that had crossed the border in a disputed incident, and that it had sought Russia’s military help.

Reports that Russian forces from the 102nd Military Base in Gyumri have been sent to Syunik. Earlier this week, Azeri forces tried to claim the region as theirs but left after negotiations.
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