Threat Matrix 2021

Threat Matrix is a thread where global and domestic threats and trends to America are noted and commented on. Goal it to peel back the BS and get to the root of things.

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Wuhan virus -
House Democrats blocked an effort to require COVID-19 testing and vaccinations for migrants stopped at the border before they are released into U.S. communities. The move comes as President Biden requires federal employees, including members of the U.S. military and Border Patrol, to receive the COVID vaccine. The U.S. government will reportedly fund COVID testing for federal workers who are not yet vaccinated.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
Liberal media is now warning of a global transport system collapse. CNN reported - “In an open letter Wednesday to heads of state attending the United Nations General Assembly, the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) and other industry groups warned of a “global transport system collapse” if governments do not restore freedom of movement to transport workers and give them priority to receive vaccines recognized by the World Health Organization.”

In a hearing on Thursday, Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona said he believes that parents are the primary stakeholders in the education of a child.
“Cardona: “I believe parents are important stakeholders, but I also believe educators have a role in determining educational programming.””
This follows a statement by Virginia gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe says parents shouldn’t tell schools what to teach their kids.
Also - National School Boards Association asks Biden admin to look into angry parents as possible ‘domestic terrorism and hate crime’ threats.
OBSERVATION - Control of children’s education (or rather indoctrination) by the globalists is key to producing compliant sheeple of the great reset.

The Reuters headline : “Sydney’s unvaccinated warned of social isolation when COVID-19 lockdown ends.” Gladys Berejiklian is the head of the government of the state of New South Wales, where Sydney is located, and therefore charged with setting COVID policy. She’s ordered a two-tier reopening after an endless lockdown based on local vaccination rates. On October 11, pubs, cafes, gyms and other public spaces will reopen — to the vaccinated only.
But now it seems karma has hit - “A tearful Gladys Berejiklian has resigned as NSW premier and slammed the state’s corruption watchdog after it announced it was investigating her about her secret relationship with disgraced MP Daryl Maguire.
The 51-year-old leader will also step down as Willoughby MP and leave politics for good as soon as a byelection can take place after Sydney’s Covid lockdown.” (Daily UK)
More out of NSW - An Australian government official from the province of New South Wales has admitted that six of seven recent COVID-19 deaths came from the vaccinated.
“As the minister said, tragically today, we announced the deaths of seven people who had lost their lives to COVID-19, four women and three men, one person was in their 40s, one person in their 50s, two people in their 70s, two people in their 80s, and one person who was in their 90s, all of those individuals had underlying health conditions, one person was not vaccinated, three people had received one dose of the COVID vaccine, and three people had received two doses of the COVID vaccine,” NSW Deputy Chief Health Officer Dr. Marianne Gale said.”

OBSERVATION - Huge levels of corruption and false medical reporting from NSW. Yet it is this level of crackdown/coercion by the govt that the Global Resetists are willing to go to in order to force their agenda against a world that is resisting the wuhan ‘passport’ and jab demands.
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Economy -
Congress avoided a government shutdown Thursday hours before funding would have lapsed. President Joe Biden signed a short-term appropriations bill that will keep the government running through Dec. 3. Washington had to beat a midnight Thursday deadline to prevent a shutdown of some federal operations.
OBSERVATION - Congress only succeeded to kick the can down the road. It does reduce pressure on other democrats key legislation such as the “Build America Better” act, but only slightly as democrats continue their cat fight over excessive costs. The continuing resolution will set spending at current levels into December while lawmakers hash out a full-year funding plan. The legislation includes money for hurricane relief and the resettlement of Afghan refugees.

The latest unemployment numbers while not triggering a new crisis, is still not good. The previous week saw 351,000 new jobless claims, which was considerably higher than had been anticipated. This week, economists had predicted that the number of new unemployment claims would drop a bit to 335,000. Instead, they rose yet again, with 362,000 filing for initial benefits. For comparison, at this point in 2019, the number of new unemployment claims per week was averaging barely 200,000.
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Invasion of Illegals - On Thursday, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas announced revised guidelines allowing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to exercise more discretion in deciding which immigrants should be targeted for arrest or deportation. “In exercising our discretion, we are guided by the fact that the majority of undocumented noncitizens who could be subject to removal have been contributing members of our communities for years.”

See Wuhan for lack of testing of illegals entering country.

Afghanis residing on military bases following the evacuation from Afghanistan are reportedly walking out of the bases and there is nothing the military can do about it. Approximately 700 have departed and could be higher, has not been previously reported. But the phenomenon is raising alarms among immigration advocates concerned about the risks to Afghans who give up on what is now an open-ended, complex, and completely voluntary resettlement process.
OBSERVATION - It is alleged that some of these may be lining up with family already residing in country. But given the number of criminals and terrorists that have already been identified in the evacuated ‘refugees’, there is growing concern that these elements are getting out into society without further screening.

The Department of Homeland Security is worried that rolling back the Trump-era Title 42 policy would encourage more migrants to come to the border and send numbers surging in October. Up to 400,000 migrants - or DOUBLE the 21-year record set in July - could cross the border in October when COVID restrictions Trump used to stop the surge from Mexico end, report claims.
OBSERVATION - I don’t know why they are ’worried’, honestly this is what they want.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Most activity on the left this week end appears to be focused on protests supporting abortion rights in several states. Most are expected to be peaceful.
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Strategic Developments /Deployments -
Wednesday, September 29th, a massive string of KC-135 tankers launched in quick succession out of Fairchild Air Force Base in northeastern Washington State. Soon it became apparent that 20 aerial refuelers were on some sort of mission, flying in a tightly-packed line across the northern United States. The massive launch is likely part of a major readiness exercise.
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Cyber Warfare -
Guggenheim Partners ($325 billion AUM) Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd warned this week that the top economic risk is a cyber attack against the global payments system.
“It would appear that we are extremely vulnerable to having an attack against the payment system of the financial markets… [I]f there was a synchronized attack, we would essentially bring the global financial market to its knees. The first response would probably be that securities prices would crash, and the second is we would probably have to close all the exchanges in the world in order to figure out how to restore the global payments system.”
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China -
25 Chinese military aircraft have flown into and violated Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, or ADIZ. Taiwan fighters were scrambled to intercept .
NOTE - ongoing incursion pattern, with gradually increasing numbers of aircraft.

A Long March 3B long-range Chinese rocket was launched on a transjectrory that carried it over Sidney Australia on Tuesday (Sept. 28). Speculation is that it carried either a new generation of navigation satellites or a spy satellite. (imho the latter is more probable given the polar orbit). Many see the launch as a further warning to Australia piggybacking of Chinese threats of nuclear attack if Australia interferes with Chinese action towards Taiwan or elsewhere in the disputed S China Sea.
NOTE - The Long March 3 is not capable of being placed in the newly constructed missile silos, but those missiles that will occupy them will have the range to hit Australia.
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North Korea -
North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un on Wednesday ordered the cross-border hotline to South Korea restored, indicating a willingness to resume peace negotiations with Seoul. However, Kim said he had no desire to speak with the “hostile” and “cunning” U.S. government.

NK also reportedly tested a new anti air missile yesterday.
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Europe General -
Sharply higher oil and gas prices helped push annual inflation in the 19 countries that use the euro to its highest in more than a decade, the European Union’s statistics agency said Friday. The overall inflation level, boosted by a jolting 17.4% increase in energy prices, is the euro area’s highest since 2008.
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Middle East General -
The United States and Qatar took coordinated action on Wednesday targeting a Hezbollah financial network in the Arabian Peninsula, the US Treasury Department said in a statement. The Treasury said it designated individuals including Ali Reda Hassan al-Banai, Ali Reda al-Qassabi Lari and Abd al-Muayyid al-Banaiare for having provided financial or material support to Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Shi’ite Islamist group that Washington has designated as a foreign terrorist organization.
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Iran -
A fire erupted in an IRGC facility in Iran on Sunday leaving two dead and one injured. On Thursday, Tel Aviv-based ImageSat International - ISI, a commercial servicer for satellite images - estimated that the facility was not just any military compound - it was a secret missile base.
OBSERVATION - Incidents like this have been almost a regular occurrence in Iran this year. In some instances they have been the result of Iranian incompetence but in others it has been strongly suspected of Israeli supported sabotage. There are many in Iran who are against the current theocratic govt and don’t want to be drug into a potential nuclear war with Israel.

Tensions remain high between Azerbaijan and Iran.. Azerbaijan began targeting Iranian trucks with fines and arrests, and Iran moved military forces to its border with Azerbaijan and warned against Israeli influence near its borders. The trucks in question were traveling on a road between the Armenian towns of Kapan and Goris which partially crosses through territory handed over to Azerbaijan after the Nagorno-Karabakh war last year, according to RFE/RL. The highway, patrolled by Russian peacekeepers, is Armenia’s only link to Iran.
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Syria -
Senior al-Qaeda leader, Salim Abu-Ahmad, was killed in a U.S. airstrike near Idlib, Syria, on Sept. 20. He was responsible for planning, funding, & approving trans-regional AQ attacks. A CENTOM spokesman said “There are no indications of civilian casualties as a result of the strike.”

More attacks in the Idlib regions. Operations against Anti Assad forces in the southern Syrian area of Darma have essentially ceased following a Russian backed cease fire and takeover of key areas by pro assad forces.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Tensions have been mounting in western Asia following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan last month, with Tajikistan reportedly beefing up its military presence on the Tajik-Afghan border in response. Many former members of the Afghan military defected to Tajikistan in the waning days of the country prior to Taliban takeover. The Tajik government has exchanged blows with the newly instated Taliban regime in recent weeks, condemning the insurgent group’s lack of diversity in the Taliban’s interim government and expressing concerns over stability in the region. “Recent developments in Afghanistan, linked to the political and humanitarian crisis and governance, pose a serious threat to regional security and stability,” Tajik President Emomali Rahmon said in an address to the U.N. General Assembly last week. “The current situation is a humanitarian catastrophe.”
“The growing intensity of fights between the ethnic groups and tribes in Afghanistan is another factor further destabilizing the political and security situation in our neighboring country,” he added. In exchange, the Taliban warned the Tajik government against interfering in its internal affairs. (Fox)

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Wuhan virus -
Kalifornia gov Newscum signed a bill mandating wuhan jabs for all school children K-12. Note, however, that the mandate won’t take effect until the vaccine is fully approved for kids. Right now it’s only authorized for emergency use among children aged 12-15, which means we’re still many months away from full approval. And for younger children, there isn’t even an EUA yet. It may not be until next summer or later before full approval for the vaccine in their age group is granted. Many note teachers and school staff still aren’t subject to a vaccine mandate in Kalifornia.

News reports on a new anti-viral pill to battle COVID-19 from Merck called “Molnupiravir”, - keep in mind Merck is the pharma company that owns the anti-viral pill Ivermectin.

A new study from the United Kingdom provides some great news about kids and COVID-19. The study looks at contacts of patients with a positive PCR test. It covers the time period when the Alpha variant was dominant through when the Delta variant became the most common. This study seems to cast doubts on the effectiveness or reasonableness of mandating masks for school children .

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264260v1.full.pdf

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Globalism / Great Reset -
biden/Yellen pushing for reporting by banks on “aggregate inflows into the account during the year and the aggregate outflows” for all accounts that are worth at least $600 or that engage in at least $600 worth of transactions. “

OBSERVATION - global economic control requires control of individual finances. Many expect this to finally switch over to digital currency that would create a mechanism for even greater control over individuals and linkage to eventually social credits system like is being implemented in China today.
Keep in mind too that biden is seeking to expand the number of IRS auditors substantially to go after tax fraud, and such banking oversight / reporting would be key in that effort.
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Economy -
The narrative of ‘transitory” inflation is quickly passing - even an a global scale.
- The Bank of Mexico raised the benchmark interest rate by one-quarter percent to 4.75 percent in a 4:1 split vote on Thursday over short-term inflation concerns. The central bank of the second-largest Latin American economy, also known as Banxico, revised upward the inflation in the latest inflation forecasts because of “global inflationary pressures and bottlenecks in production.”
- White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein told Fox News in a recent interview that inflation is likely to stay elevated longer than previously expected. Bernstein told the outlet that he thinks the rate of inflation will come in at around 4 percent for 2021, before falling to 2.3 percent in 2022. He did not say when, precisely, he expects the rate will tick down next year, but noted inflation would likely stay high into the middle of next year.
- Economist Nouriel Roubini, known for his gloomy-yet-accurate forecast of the 2008 financial crash—a prediction he made at a time of peak market exuberance—warned in a recent op-ed that the global supply chain crisis, combined with high debt ratios and ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, threatens to turn the “mild stagflation” of recent months into a full-blown stagflationary crisis.

Americans currently on food stamps will see their monthly allotment raised by almost 30 percent, thanks to a change in policy from the Biden administration. CNN reported that following a review of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Americans who count on money for food will be given an extra $36 a month starting in October. That is an increase of over 29 percent since before the coronavirus pandemic, and before skyrocketing inflation began creating headaches for not just poor Americans, but for all people living on a budget this year.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Around 53,000 Afghan evacuees are currently living on eight military bases in the United States as part of the Biden Administration’s Operation Allies Welcome. Another 14,000 Afghans will be arriving soon, once the evacuation flights resume in various foreign countries. Those flights were suspended several weeks ago because of a measles outbreak among the evacuees.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
A new poll has revealed that political divisions run so deep in the US that over half of Trump voters want red states to secede from the union, and 41% of Biden voters want blue states to split off. According to the analysis from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, 52% of Trump voters at least somewhat agree with the statement: ‘The situation is such that I would favor [Blue/Red] states seceding from the union to form their own separate country.’ Twenty-five percent of Trump voters strongly agree. Meanwhile, 41% of Biden voters at least somewhat agree with the sentiment, while 18% strongly agree. (dailymail UK)
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POLITICAL FRONT -
biden’s $4.7 trillion in signature spending plans are in limbo as the democrats war between moderates and progressives continue.
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Domestic Terror -
The Senate confirmed, by a vote of 50-45, Tracy Stone-Manning to be the new director of the Bureau of Land Management. She is also a declared sympathizer and member of the radical eco-terrorist group Earth First! and admitted to retyping and sending a letter warning the U.S. Forest Service of a tree spiking in Idaho.
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Strategic Developments /Deployments -
USS Carl Vinson CSG id in the waters south of Okinawa to South China Sea operating with the Japanese navy, to enhance deterrence and response capabilities based on the Japan-U.S. alliance.
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China -
China swarmed the Taiwan ADZ with nearly 40 combat aircraft yesterday and already today more than a dozen combat craft have entered the ADZ. Yesterday was Chin’s Founding day and Xi’s show of strength is key.
OBSERVATION - Military probing and exercises is a common method to lull an opponent into a sense of routine. Egypt did this in the 1973 war against Israel. China is unlikely to launch an attack with air power alone. More mobilization triggers will be necessary - such as the massive operations necessary for an amphibious assault.
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India/China -
One hundred PLA soldiers and 55 horses intruded three miles into the Indian territory in the Barahoti region of the Himalayan state of Uttarakhand on Aug. 30 and returned after destroying some infrastructure including a bridge, according to the latest Indian media reports.
Experts said the timing of the incident is of significance as it conveys to the Indians the Chinese regime’s serious intent. It’s also thought to be connected with the new PLA leadership, which specializes in patrolling and reconnaissance missions in mountainous terrain. The incursion might have been designed by them to please Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
“What adds an element of concern to this complex situation is the timing of it. Since the intrusion was large reportedly, with as many as 100 Chinese soldiers, it means that the Chinese side wishes to underline the seriousness of its intent,” Rajiv Dogra, a former senior Indian diplomat, told The Epoch Times by email.
The incident at the mountain crossing Tun Jun La Pass went unnoticed by the Indian military initially and didn’t lead to a faceoff, reported the Mumbai-based The Economic Times, which quoted insiders in the Indian defense establishment.
It was reported by locals to the Indian army, which sent a patrol to verify. By then the Chinese had left after spending about three hours.
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Europe General -
The UK now has two large aircraft carriers at sea ready for operations after HMS Prince of Wales was recently declared operational. The carrier is equipped with fifth-generation F-35 Lightning stealth fighter.
NOTE - UK has been working to regrow its navy and now with two carriers it has increased its capabilities.
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Wuhan virus -
Reported Cases as of Oct 1, 2021: The current 7-day moving average of daily new cases (106,395 per day) decreased 13.3% compared with the previous 7-day moving average (122,659).
New Hospital Admissions: The current 7-day daily average for September 22–September 28, 2021, was 8,321. This is a 14.9% decrease from the prior 7-day average (9,782).
Deaths: The current 7-day moving average of new deaths (1,476 per day) has decreased 3.3% compared with the previous 7-day moving average (1,527).
OBSERVATION - This is clearly indicating we are on the downside of the peak..

The narrative is being harder to maintain as legitimate science continues to press forward on numerous aspects of the disease. Here is a summary of one examining the break through cases -

(MedRxiv) Associations between vaccine breakthrough cases and infection by SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have remained largely unexplored. Here we analyzed SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences and viral loads from 1,373 persons with COVID-19 from the San Francisco Bay Area from February 1 to June 30, 2021, of which 125 (9.1%) were vaccine breakthrough infections. Fully vaccinated were more likely than unvaccinated persons to be infected by variants carrying mutations associated with decreased antibody neutralization.
[…] These findings suggest that vaccine breakthrough cases are preferentially caused by circulating antibody-resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants, and that symptomatic breakthrough infections may potentially transmit COVID-19 as efficiently as unvaccinated infections.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.19.21262139v1

In a U.K. data study there were 157,400 Delta variant cases amid the fully vaccinated (26.52% of total cases), and 257,357 Delta variant cases amid the unvaccinated (43.36% of total cases). However, when it came to severe outcomes 63.5% of deaths were from the fully vaccinated group
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1018547/Technical_Briefing_23_21_09_16.pdf

More violence rocked Australia over the weekend as protests against the wuhan lockdown continued. Even more political turbulence in NSW as more politicians resign in the wake of a corruption scandal that forced the premier to resign. Corruption that allegedly includes payoffs from Pfizer and other drug companies. NSW has some of the stringent lockdown rules in Australia.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
According to Bloomberg, the global energy crisis has forced a German electricity producer to halt a power plant after it ran out of coal. Steag GmbH – which operates six large-scale hard coal plants in Germany with an installed capacity of more than 4,000 MW – closed its Bergkamen-A plant in the western part of the country this week due to shortages of hard coal, it said by email.
OBSERVATION - Europe is running head long into a massive energy crisis driven by “global warming’. The switch to ‘green’ energy is one of the key goals of the WEF and globalists.
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Economy -
US natural gas prices, though not the highest they have ever been, show that US natural gas prices have doubled relative to what they have been over the past few years.
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Invasion of Illegals -
biden administration continues to ignore the law. New guidelines issued by Department of Homeland Security state that entering the U.S. illegally – violating immigration laws established by Congress – is no longer an arrest-able offense.
“The fact an individual is a removable noncitizen therefore should not alone be the basis of an enforcement action against them,” DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said in a memorandum to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials. “We will use our discretion and focus our enforcement resources in a more targeted way. Justice and our country’s well-being require it.”
In other words, violating federal law and entering the U.S. illegally, even though federal law defines the act as a crime, is no longer a crime, according to Mayorkas.
Under federal law, those living in the U.S. illegally without a green card or legitimate documents is grounds for removal.

DHS is now quietly preparing for a surge in the range of 400,000 in October.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Very minor leftist violence over the weekend. Most active surrounded 650+ pro abortion marches across the country.
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Strategic Developments /Deployments -
Four aircraft carriers now exercising in W Pacific — USS Ronald Reagan, USS Carl Vinson, HMS Queen Elizabeth and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force JS Ise (DDH-182) in the Philippine Sea. Japan’s carrier has U.S. F-35s .
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China -
China’s Evergrande Group edges closer to a massive restructuring, Beijing has stepped up efforts to limit the fallout, signaling it’s willing to prop up healthy developers, homeowners and the real estate market at the expense of global bondholders. Though Evergrande is one of the largest developers in China, it accounts for just 4% of sales in the country. A run on property firms in the wake of an Evergrande failure threatens to destabilize an industry that accounts for 29% of China’s economy, according to new research from Harvard University economist Ken Rogoff.

China flew 145 aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense zone in past 4 days. Today marked most ever, 52.
OBSERVATION - Part of this process is to wear down an opponent. However, there is a flip side for Taiwan in that it is providing real world practice and training when the real event comes and it helps identify weaknesses in their defenses.

Chinese aircraft at Bagram Afghanistan - See Afghanistan
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India/China -
There are reports that China has increased the number of troops in the region following the incursion of about 100
Chinese solders into India that destroyed some infrastructure.
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North Korea -
North and South Korea have restored the hotline phone connection after several months.
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Israel -
The rules for Israel’s proof of vaccination pass – called the Green Pass – will change this Sunday with new regulations determining who is eligible for the pass.
From Sunday, all Green Passes currently in use will expire and those eligible for new passes must get them reissued. In general, the new eligibility rules stipulate that those reissuing their Green Pass must have received their third jab of the coronavirus vaccine, or their second dose in the past 6 months. In some stickier situations, keep reading for information on the specifics.
Because of the effectiveness of the third dose and the decrease in effectiveness of the first two doses, the Health Ministry has decided that only people who have received the third dose will be eligible for the Green Pass as of Sunday. This new green passport will be valid for six months starting from the date of the third vaccination. The Health Ministry has not yet formulated a policy on what will happen after these six months.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Power is back on at Bagram air base and multiple confirmed reports of planes landing at the airfield across social media and mainstream outlets. These aircraft are reported to be chinese military affiliated.
OBSERVATION - China handing out big bucks to the Taliban in part to tie down access to the massive ore deposits with considerable rare earth metals in country. China doesn’t care about how the country is run, only that they have unrestricted access to resources and keep the taliban well funded. An airbase in the middle east is a big bonus for China as it continues to try to expand its influence into that region.
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You’ll probably note that these posts are coming out a little later in the day than they have in the past. Just a complication of some sleep loss caused when I move my leg wrong (from a dream or what ever) and get woke up by some pain, resulting in me sleeping in a little more than i used to.
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Wuhan virus -
I am looking at reports that China’s wuhan origins may have begun earlier than reported. Based upon early purchases of PCR tests/equipment in the second half of 2019, some are conjecturing that the virus was likely spreading in Wuhan, China as early as the summer of 2019 and most definitely by early fall of 2019. The claim was based on a study by a group called Internet 2.0.
NOTE - I have no data on the credibility of Internet 2.0, so hold this off at arms length a little, but it does fit the pattern of evidence that something was going around far earlier than China reported.

NIH Director Francis Collins announced his resignation yesterday. This following the FDA rejection of most of the wuhan booster demands of the administration and my be potentially linked to the Wuhan gain-of-function funding scandal. He has been very outspoken proponent of the jab and universal masking. However, he is 71 years old so he is well past his time of retirement.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Seattle is using federal funds connected to the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 to house homeless in city’s Capitol Hill neighborhood - a high cost area.
OBSERVATION - forcing homeless/low income into richer neighborhoods is a consistent theme of the progressives. This will increase the crime rate in these areas and create more crime/instability. The rich will vote with their feet, at least until new laws and regulations forbid it. Kalifornia is an example, with a recent law eliminating single family zoning. This can be called the great equaling - lowering standards for all.

OBSERVATION - The release of the Pandora Papers”, millions of documents detailing how leaders have used offshore tax havens to hide assets worth hundreds of millions of dollars has some governments and leaders scrambling. Many of these leaders are also identified as supporters of the Globalism, so the release of such financial information raises my eyebrows, particularly since the agencies involved in the release are strongly progressive in nature - International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) and released in stories by media partners including The Washington Post, the BBC and The Guardian.
This could be a consolidation of power in the real of the Globalist elites, or some other internal power struggle to force potential wavering leaders back onto the reservation.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes that electrifying personal transportation will require electricity generating capacity to double.
And while ramping up output might feel daunting for anyone worried about the transition to electric vehicles, investors—and U.S. consumers turning on the lights—shouldn’t worry.
“If we shift all transport to electric than electricity demand approximately doubles…this is going to create a lot of challenges with the grid,” said Musk on Wednesday at CodeCon, a conference held at the Waldorf Astoria in Beverly Hills, Calif.
OBSERVATION - Musk spoke out loud the obvious - electric vehicles are not the cure all but will need more production. Many greenists think the gap can be filled by solar/wind, but has Kalifornia and Europe (especially Germany) have proved, those sources are inadequate and unreliable to fill the gap.
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Economy -
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen continues to warn about the debt celling and the Oct 18 deadline. She also threw water on the a $1 trillion coin idea saying “The platinum coin is the equivalent of asking the Fed to mint money to cover the debt,” On Monday, President Joe Biden said he could not guarantee that the U.S. government will not default on the debt as he sought to put more pressure on Republicans to stop blocking a Democratic effort to raise the debt ceiling.
OBSERVATION - Some scoff at the idea that crashing the debt ceiling will cause default of loans and throw the country into a recession / depression. The US economy ( and that of the world) has been relying heavily on US spending. The US and Global economies are on very, very shaky legs (contrary to what the DOW suggests) due to shutdowns and continued problems from wuhan. A default could be just the tool that the Global Reset crowd could leverage to bring the world under its plan and mandates. I think normalcy bias is blinding much of America to the very shaky status of the economy and how little it would take to tip it off the edge of the cliff.

The Treasury Department said cities and states have until 15 November to allocate pandemic-related rent relief funding. States and localities must allocate and account for at least 65% of the funds or face federal clawbacks. The total program participation and expenditure is 3% of roughly $40 billion in funding. Far Left politicians want to expand and extend this program in the Human Infrastructure bill, despite scant nationwide participation.
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Invasion of Illegals - Stowed away in the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill is a provision that would allow anyone residing in the United States who provides an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN) to apply for the Child Tax Credit. Currently, all filers are required to provide a Social Security Number. (Free Beacon).
This extends the Child Tax Credit to anyone in the United States who provides an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number, overturning a crucial safeguard against fraud. Federal law required a valid Social Security number to receive the cash transfer from the federal government. The potential payout for illegal immigrants is massive, with each family receiving a monthly payment of $250 to $300 per child.
NOTE - This violates federal law and biden will implement anyway, relying on a sluggish court system to drag it on until it is so deeply established to be unstoppable, like 0bama’s “Dream” act.

In August 2020, Border Patrol agents caught more than 47,000 illegal immigrants and immediately released just 10 of them into the interior. This August, the Border Patrol made more than 195,000 arrests and released 43,941 people — an increase of more than 430,000%.
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Biden watch -
Biden blessed the stalking of Sen Sinema in the ladies’ room and later on an airliner. “It happens to everybody... it’s part of the process”
NOTE - Stalking and public assault of politics opponents are a common tactic of the marxist progressives. We see the same tactic used by BLM/Antifa assailing those in restaurants and other venues. We see it in going to opponents homes and threatening physical violence on opponents as well.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Attorney General Merrick Garland is mobilizing the FBI and U.S. attorneys to “investigate and prosecute” protests at public school board meetings and schools.
OBSERVATION - This is exactly in line with biden administration listing of any who oppose the radical progressive agenda of indoctrination of school children are the same as those evil ‘domestic terrorists’.
I fully expect that the FBI/DOJ will try to make examples of some of these parents in an effort to quell parents rebellion against school boards. Such action is designed to quell the first amendment rights of parents to remind these school boards who they really work for. Another weaponization of government against citizens. Just another straw on the camel’s back.
FURTHER NOTE - This triggers FBI investigation in contrast to failure to investigate rampant sexual abuse in the national governing body of gymnastics.

With three months still to go, 2021 is already the second-highest year ever for firearms background checks and sales in America, putting it on a path to break 2020’s record. Recent months gun and ammo sales have leveled out, allowing greater availability and lower prices.
NOTE - If the democrats get past the budget impasses, I expect greater efforts to remove gun rights which will trigger increased demand for guns and ammunition. Use this lull wisely.

ON THE CALENDAR - Oct 10th Indigenous People’s Day of Rage (multiple cities)

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POLITICAL FRONT -
Democrat circular firing squad on their big funding programs continues. Republicans stay on the sidelines as biden told them to (get out of the way)
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Domestic Terror -
Parents at school board meeting are the new class of domestic terrorists.
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Cyber Warfare -
Facebook, et al suffered a major outage yesterday. Some speculation that there was a DNS attack of some sort, others suggest an ‘operator’ error during a system upgrade. Most evidence points to the latter. Also the same day, there were elevated cell phone outages - unexplained.
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China -
Biden administration issued a strong warning China over its increasing provocations against Taiwan Chinese President Xi snorted tea through his nose upon receipt of the news.

biden administration is trying to structure trade sanctions against China that are essentially carbon copies of those started by President Trump, but are being executed by incompetent politicians.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Not readily on the MSM radar screen, but the internal economy is in a tailspin. Trade has dropped in half with Pakistan. The Afghan banking system has collapsed and most foreign firms doing business in Afghanistan have shut down because of the banking collapse and the loss of many employees who are trying to flee Afghanistan to escape a purge of Afghans suspected of working for foreign governments. Taliban cannot control many of its irregulars, young gunmen from the countryside who now claim the traditional Afghan reward of loot for the conqueror. All are contributing to economic (as well as social) instability of the country, conditions that will benefit the reconstitution of AQ and ISIS elements in the country.
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Turkey -
Continuing to anger the rest of NATO by purchasing more Russian equipment.
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Central America General -
Ripples of the next illegal immigrant wave towards the US causing local problems in central american countries.
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Today is abbreviated due to appointments and other issues.
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Wuhan virus -
A Colorado-based UCHealth system says it is denying organ transplants to patients not vaccinated against the coronavirus in “almost all situations,” citing studies that show these patients are much more likely to die if they get covid-19. A Colorado-based health system says it is denying organ transplants to patients not vaccinated against the coronavirus in “almost all situations,” citing studies that show these patients are much more likely to die if they get covid-19.
OBSERVATION - File this also under Globalism as globalist have repeatedly said the wuhan pandemic is the springboard for global dominance and forcing the jab is one component. The willingness to have patents die rather than get life saving treatments is a component of dehumanization of opponents.

Yellen continues to defend the $600 transaction reporting level, claiming it can reveal information on income that “can be hidden.” and therefore untaxed.

Deadly results from experimental drugs allowed usage under emergency orders historically have warranted close monitoring. In the case of wuhan jabs, the exact number of breakthrough cases, is not even known. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stopped tracking that data in May. The agency has continued, however, to track hospitalizations and deaths among the fully vaccinated crowd. As of Sept. 27, the CDC reported “22,115 patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection who were hospitalized or died.” They further have been remiss in examining the hundreds of thousands of deaths and serious reactions logged since the introduction of the ‘vaccines’.

Last month, a grant application submitted to the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) revealed that an international team of scientists had planned to mix genetic data of similar strains to create a new virus.
The grant application was made in 2018 and leaked to Drastic, the pandemic origins analysis group. Reportedly the end result of the plan was to create a new corona virus in 2018.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
The Federal Reserve plans as early as this week to launch a review of the potential benefits and risks of issuing a U.S. digital currency, as central banks around the world experiment with the potential new form of money.
Fed officials are divided on the matter, making it unlikely they will decide any time soon on whether to create a digital dollar. Unlike private cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, a Fed version would be issued by and backed by the U.S. central bank, a government entity, as are U.S. paper dollar bills and coins.
Advocates say a Fed digital dollar could make it faster and cheaper to move money around the financial system, bring into it people who lack bank accounts and provide an efficient way for the government to distribute financial aid. (WSJ)
OBSERVATION - A digital global currency will empower the globalists by controlling what people buy and limiting others access to their money.
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Economy -
Globally, nations are facing a serious shortage of fossil fuels - coal, gas and oil. Oil analysts say that they expect oil prices to spike to at least $100 / barrel. Currently, Brent was last at $82.47 per barrel on Wednesday morning during Asia hours. OPEC plans to maintain to an existing pact of oil production, shrugging off calls to pump more oil. UK continues with gasoline shortages made worse by lack of truckers to distribute it to gasoline stations.
German coal plants are being restarted - with insufficient coal supplies, as a cold winter is expected and ‘green’ power sources failing. China is also facing a dramatic energy shortages even as key industries are trying to get back up and running after wuhan closures.
I’ve already noted the hypersonic rocketing prices in natural gas in Europe and increases here in the US - in many ways the result of panic buying in preparation of a cold winter of global shortages.

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Invasion of Illegals -
The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday handed the Biden administration a stunning defeat with regard to construction on former President Donald Trump’s border wall, which currently sits incomplete as illegal immigrants continue to flood across the open border.
The country’s high court ordered lower courts to vacate previous rulings about the wall, citing “changed circumstances” in the case. The Supreme Court did not elaborate Monday on what “changed circumstances” directed it to order lower courts to revisit previous rulings about the border wall. ______________________________

Biden watch -
Joe Biden Standing Outside at a Michigan rally: ‘I’ll Bet Everyone in This Room ...’
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CW2/Domestic violence -
States are now standing up in opposition to the AG’s order for the DOJ and FBI to begin investigating parents opposing school boards implementation of controversial programs like CRT and mask mandates and other socialist items. Florida and S. Dakota governors have lead the way to oppose any federal actions.
OBSERVATION - This govt intrusion into a very fundamental and basic right of self governance and First Amendment is pushing the pressure gauge closer to the red zone.

BLM/Antifa based trouble is on a low ebb, divided between various other socialist causes and lacking a major national unifying event to drive a unifying action.
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Strategic Developments /Deployments -
As of September 2020, the U.S. nuclear stockpile consisted of 3,750 nuclear warheads, an approximate 88’% reduction in the stockpile from its maximum at the end of 1967.
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China -
Chinese diplomats say President Xi Jinping does not currently plan to attend the G20 summit in Rome in person this month.

I realize many here on FR follow Jack Posobiec . Yesterday he tweeted the following -
“Taiwan stuff heating up more than people realize
This isn’t just posturing
There are top Chinese generals telling Xi they want the green light”

MY OPINION - He’s said a lot of things recently that haven’t panned out IMHO. He is apparently unaware that two US carrier CSGs, a British aircraft carrier CSG and a Japanese (I’ll call it a light carrier) carrier equipped with F35s are operating in the vicinity of Taiwan. Any attack on Taiwan would be met with significant force at this stage.
Secondly, China is currently very vulnerable to blockades/ stoppage of shipments of vital materials, fuels, food and other items. It faces a Lehman brothers times eight scale of an economic crisis, it cant run its power plants to keep its industries running, it’s food reserves are way down after two consecutive years of flood caused crop losses and disease hitting livestock.
China has a long view on its goals and generals wanting to jump the gun and potentially unleashing a regional or even a global/nuclear war is contrary to what has been seen. Air incursions are a means to intimidate Taiwan. Any battle to invade the island will eventually destroy the microchip capabilities of the nation - a resource China wants to claim as its own.
Now, I strongly realize that the US under biden is the weakest its been in my lifetime - even more so than Jimmy Carter. But I don’t think we are at a state yet where China can think it can move on Taiwan with out severe consequences. Here in the US, deliberate efforts by the marxist left and the biden weaponized government can cause things to change very quickly - any doubt about that one just needs to look at the last 9 months. There are so many things that could cause the gasket to blow here creating an opening for China, but I don’t see it in the short term
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Israel -
See Lebanon.
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Iran -
Iran and Azerbaijan still having a diplomatic tiff. Iran’s media is confirming that Azerbaijan on Tuesday shut down the office of the representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Baku. Azeri security forces have launched a widespread operation against pro-Iranian elements in the country, Israel Hayom has learned.
The JPost has a good article defining the historical and current situation.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/is-iran-threatening-azerbaijan-over-israel-ties-681101

A third Iranian oil tanker has docked in Syria to deliver gasoline to Lebanon on behalf of Hezebollah.
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Lebanon -
Lebanon and Israel are still disputing off shore boundaries and rights that could decide who can tap massive natural gas fields in the region. US is attempting to mediate the dispute, however, Lebanon has been unable to field a cohesive diplomatic team due to internal chaos from the economic crisis. At the end of talks in May, Lebanese President Michel Aoun said there should be no preconditions. He rejected the U.S. mediator’s suggestions asking for negotiations to be on the basis of Israeli and Lebanese border lines already submitted and registered with the United Nations.
OBSERVATION - Lebanon has very little leverage in these talks. Israel may make a generous offer, but they realize that the real power in Lebanon is Hezebollah and that any boon the Lebanese economy from any oil / gas discoveries will largely end up in the pockets of Hezebollah.
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Actually got a good nights sleep (dreams make leg move, causing pain and waking me up) Actually slept in! So a little late again.
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Wuhan virus -
Pfizer asked the U.S. government Thursday to allow use of its COVID-19 vaccine in children ages 5 to 11 — and if regulators agree, shots could begin within a matter of weeks.
NOTE - Children are at a far lesser risk of severe illness or death than older people, with less than 700 reported deaths nation wide since the start of the pandemic. Also note- there are increasing rumors that Pfizer has used orphans to test their jab. If verified, all heck should break loose.

In related - Swedish health officials on Wednesday paused usage of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine for younger people and children after reports of possible side effects including myocarditis, while Denmark also announced that it halted the shot for those under the age of 18. Officials have “decided to pause the use of Moderna’s vaccine, Spikevax, for everyone born in 1991 and later, for precautionary reasons,” reads a statement from the Swedish health agency published on Wednesday, according to a translation from Swedish to English.
The agency further added there is “an increased risk of side effects such as inflammation of the heart muscle or heart sac,” noting that the risk is “very small.”
The agency said it now recommends the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine instead for people born in 1991 or later, noting that the decision is valid until Dec. 1. Those from that age group who got the first Moderna dose should not get a second dose, the agency added.
New data from Swedish and other Nordic sources “indicate that the connection is especially clear” between Moderna’s vaccine and side effects “especially after the second dose.”
“Both myocarditis and pericarditis often go away on their own, without causing any lasting problems, but suspicious symptoms should be assessed by a doctor at … a health center or emergency room,” said the agency. But it noted that “medical treatment and monitoring in hospital may be needed in established cases.”

OBSERVATION - Increasing connection between the jab and myocarditis and pericarditis is being established by investigators globally. The wuhan cultists will seek to steamroll these results to push the jab.

According to a large Israeli study, the natural immune protection that develops after a SARS-CoV-2 infection offers considerably more of a shield against the Delta variant of the pandemic coronavirus than two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Along with this is another study showing that the jabs are having significantly less protectiveness than we’ve been told. Study also confirmed natural protection from recovery wuhan patients are far better than these ‘vaccines’
The hits keep coming - The effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine falls below 50 percent after five months, according to a new study published in The Lancet medical journal on Oct. 4.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
The police state grows in the US - The U.S. government is reportedly secretly issuing warrants for Google to provide user data on anyone typing in certain search terms, raising fears that innocent online users could get caught up in serious crime investigations at a greater frequency than previously thought. Forbes reports -
“In an attempt to track down criminals, federal investigators have started using new “keyword warrants” and used them to ask Google to provide them information on anyone who searched a victim’s name or their address during a particular year, an accidentally unsealed court document that Forbes found shows.
Google has to respond to thousands of warrant orders each year, but the keyword warrants are a relatively new strategy used by the government and are controversial.
“Trawling through Google’s search history database enables police to identify people merely based on what they might have been thinking about, for whatever reason, at some point in the past,” Jennifer Granick, surveillance and cybersecurity counsel at the American Civil Liberties Union, told Forbes.
“This never-before-possible technique threatens First Amendment interests and will inevitably sweep up innocent people, especially if the keyword terms are not unique and the time frame not precise. To make matters worse, police are currently doing this in secret, which insulates the practice from public debate and regulation,” she added.
The government said that the scope of the warrants is limited to avoid implicating innocent people who happen to search for certain terms, but it’s not publicly disclosed how many users’ data are sent to the government and what the extent of the warrant requests are.” (Forbes)
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Economy -
McConnel offered a support for a short extension the debt ceiling into December. His statement emphasized that it would give the democrats time to ‘properly’ work out budget reconciliation and other issues.
OBSERVATION - Some see this a capitulation on McConnel’s part. I see a bit of strategy in letting the democrats continue their circular firing squad for a couple month more. Progressive and moderates are hammering at each other and current polling suggests that public opinion is trending against the progressives. So this could be seen as allowing the progressives to be further degraded.

OCC Comptroller nominee Saule Omarova confirmation hearings have hit a major iceberg - her extensive and outspoken pro marxist view of economics and desire to completely eliminate the current banking system in the US.

VP Harris is noticeably AWOL from the administration’s efforts to get its spending packages passed in congress.

New Zealand´s central bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than seven years on Wednesday, removing some of the support it put in place when the coronavirus pandemic began. The Reserve Bank raised the benchmark rate to 0.5% from a record low 0.25%.
NOTE - This is a harbinger for the US as inflation is expected to continue to skyrocket. This will in turn cause big ripples in the economy that has grown addicted to low Fed interest rates and could institute further economic hardship.

Spot rates for large dry cargo ships just topped $80,000 per day for the first time since 2009, and freight derivatives for the fourth quarter — a period when rates for these vessels normally pull back — just spiked.
OBSERVATION - This is largely driven by recent demands globally for coal and other fossil fuels and raw material in general. Bottom line -higher prices

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Invasion of Illegals -
The next caravan of illegals are mobilizing in Mexico and are demanding it transport them for free to the US border or prepare for war. “We are leaving in 20 days,” activist Irineo Mujica said Tuesday on social media. “We prefer to march with (travel) papers. […] And this time, with papers or without papers, we are ready for war. If the National Guard comes and they are cowardly enough to beat women and children, let them prepare because God’s hand is with us.”
There is currently no indication on which crossing location they may be trying to reach. Potentially upwards of 60,000 are associated with this surge.

Ten Republican governors visited the U.S.-Mexico border Wednesday to blame President Joe Biden for creating the crisis there and to lay out a 10-point plan for reversing his policies and stopping the surge of migrants.
OBSERVATION - USSC has ruled that border enforcement is the jurisdiction of the US govt, so any actions will have to be tailored to work around those requirements. Expect strong DOJ law fare like they have over Texas laws to circumvent fed control and arrest illegals.
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Biden watch -
Biden pitching his 3.5 trillion spending plan claimed that it is actually a tax cut.

In a recent interview, John Kerry said biden simply hadn’t been aware of the recent spat between the U.S. and France that followed Biden snubbing them on the U.S.-U.K.-Australia nuclear submarines pact.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
FBI agent and MSNBC analyst Clint Watts to confirm that white nationalists and anarchists were behind this parent protesting “scourge”: “To me, is this really about people being upset about mask mandates or are there sort of underlying disruptive forces, white nationalists, anarchists, whatever, in this country, that are using mask mandates and a public health crisis to sort of wage chaos?”

Meanwhile, in congress AG representative are being hammered the order for the DOJ and FBI to conduct investigations to silence opposition to radical leftist agendas in schools across the nation. Push back has also started to ramp up resistance to both leftist school boards and the administration for its meddling.

OBSERVATION - DOJ/FBI meddling will serve to fire people up - not ice dissension. As such it will add another can of gasoline to the fire of people’s perception of rights abuse by biden et al.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
President Biden has appointed an avowed Critical Race Theory supporter to the Department of Education. Biden appointed Precious McKesson, chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party’s Black Caucus, as a Special Assistant in the DOE’s office of Communications and Outreach.
OBSERVATION - This is another radical leftist that biden has put forward for key administration positions. Saule Omarova being another. These hard left sections indicate that biden is not interested in governing from the middle as he campaigned on (shock).
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Strategic Developments /Deployments -
The Navy announced the creation of Task Force 59 last month, which will operate out of U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and try to apply emerging unmanned and AI technologies to solve some of the most urgent challenges in that region. The first command of its kind unmanned and artificial intelligence task force in the Middle East - U.S. Navy says it will begin using off-the-shelf gear to boost maritime domain awareness in the region, first gaining trust in the systems and then applying them to real missions.
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China -
Jack Posobiec tweet -
“Taiwan stuff heating up more than people realize
This isn’t just posturing
There are top Chinese generals telling Xi they want the green light”

FOLLOW UP - Lets step back and take a look at this

A swarm of articles from various sites appeared on the interwebs yesterday after this tweet. Some echoing the imminent nature of the threat, others a broader view.

What we do know - China has ramped up its rhetoric against Taiwan and other countries that may come to its aid in the event of an invasion. Communist Chinese government warned this week that war between China and those countries backing Taiwan, such as the United States, could be “triggered at any time.” We’ve also seen an unprecedented spike in air incursions into the Taiwan ADZ. These combine to work as psyops against Taiwan and the rest of the world.

We also know that the US is at its weakest state in generations, military may still have some peak readiness from the Trump years, but has rapidly eroded under biden. Also biden has totally fallen flat on his face in foreign policy matters and China knows that.

China’s aggressiveness has prompted Japan and Australia to prepare for war against China should an invasion occur.

So what are China’s goals?
Clearly Xi is pressing hard on the ‘reunification’ angle. Coming off the largely unopposed seizure of Hong Kong and genocide of the Ughers he is feeling pretty confident moving forward on Taiwan. China has morphed into an economic power, leaving the communist template modified, recognizing that such reliance on China is a ‘soft’ weapon and means to influence and control the world. Seizing Hong Kong - an economic dynamo and their Silk Road initiative that creates key control of resources is on the forefront of their goals. Taiwan on its own has established itself as an economic heavyweight in the realm of electronics and challenges China in that field. So a hostile take over (using business speak) is one goal. However, reducing the island to rubble takes away the industrial infrastructure and may serve as a guiding deterrent to some Chinese tactics, though not enough to limit their actions if necessary to capture the island.
A second goal is a military / strategic - its recent aggressiveness in the S China Sea exposes the fact that Taiwan, Japan, S Korea and other nations by virtue of their strategic locations as the First Island chain can essentially blockade China and deny it the raw materials and food it needs. Hence the aggressive seizure of disputed islands and the push towards Taiwan.

What tactics would we expect to see?
- Some note that a blockade could be used. This would follow Chinese strategic traditions, that they would prefer to win without fighting. But it is doubtful that Taiwan will capitulate without warfare. And any blockade would be challenged by the US and allies.
- A second avenue would be an aggressively enforced blockade with air or sea attacks against key infrastructure to cripple the Taiwanese armed forces and government. Again, this will likely receive a response from Taiwan supporters. This will also involve a potentially drawn out conflict, where China prefers a quick, decisive victory.
- Third is an invasion of the island. Wars are won or lost on the ground. I think that Chinese leaders are aware that the first two options will not be successful and will only rally major powers to Taiwan’s defense. But this requires the logistics of a mammoth amphibious operation the likes not seen since WW2 and never executed by China. The eyes of intelligence are focused on potential staging areas for indicators of the mustering for such an assault - troop build up, numerous ships preparing loading troops and equipment etc. It would be a turkey shoot as this armada crosses the Taiwan Strait, so they would have to have a very large force to absorb losses and still have a combat viable force reaching the island. However, this becomes China’s sole strategic option if it hopes to prevail without prolonged warfare.
- Wildcard action? Will China execute a nuclear first strike against the US to neutralize any response/support to Taiwan, doing same to Japan and Australia? This would provide some cover for the massive amphibious load up and move out but at risk of a nuclear response. This would open a pandora’s box. I think that Xi will rely upon internal US disfunction to limit and cover invasion build up.

Is war coming soon? Xi has made serious promises to his followers and faces severe problems if he delays. Given the mentally challenged biden and his case of incompetents ruling the country, the probability is very high that Xi will make the call within the next 3 years. That could be shortened is something major hit the country, such as biden being removed from office (25th), massive economic crash or the initiation of some sort of civil conflict/war.

Another driver is that China has not been immune to the wuhan economic turmoil. In the face of Evergrande’s debt crisis, there are increasing signs of stress in China’s property market after one developer failed to make a bond payment on Tuesday. Ratings agencies have downgraded Chinese developers Fantasia Holdings and Sinic Holdings over risks from their strained cash flow situations. Fantasia did not repay the principal amount of $206 million of a bond that matured on Monday, it said in a filing to the Hong Kong exchange. Though smaller than Evergrande, is represented the developing failure of the market in general. China’s energy crisis has shut down factories and shipping ports unable to ship goods due to wuhan lockdowns and overall chained delays in production of goods. Wars tend to divert attention from internal problems for a period.

I still hold to may current assessment, Xi will eventually pull the trigger and order the invasion, but not as immediately as some are reporting. China has invested too much in the promise of ‘reuniting’ the island to back down. However, under current world and US conditions this decision is not happening soon. Xi is measuring the mettle of the world and more importantly, the US in the timing of his decision. High probability of invasion within 3 years, but if the US collapses under any one of many factors currently building pressure (some note above), he will strike while we are not capable of a response.
We may have a better picture shortly as Chinese Communist Party Central Committee meetings get underway in a couple of weeks.
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Israel -
Hamas appears to be busy building a second front against Israel in Lebanon, and that it is trampling on Hezbollah’s toes in the process. While Hezbollah monitors Hamas’ activities in Lebanon, this is not always sufficient to control its activities. This was evident from rockets launched from Lebanon during the last conflict between Hamas and Israel months ago. Hamas appears to also be developing a presence in Syria and the West Bank. Both are early in their development , but Hamas is in the process of developing its infrastructure as they have in Gaza.

IDF is adjusting it sensors to detect drone strikes from Lebanon; while Hezbollah gains battlefield experience by using Iranian drones in Syria.
OBSERVATION - Use of hunter/killer drones have been successfully demonstrated in Syria and Armenia (two locations of many). I see Hezbollah using such against Israeli Iron Dome systems in the next war, to remove that defensive advantage.
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Iraq -
Iraqi elections are scheduled for 10th of October
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Post is a little rushed today - life has delivered a full plate of fun requiring most of my attention.
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Wuhan virus -
Australian health minister noted in a press conference that 78% of the wuhan hospital cases are those who are FULLY vaccinated. another 17% are those who are partially (one shot) vaccinated.

Interesting evaluation of Minnesota wuhan death vs age group. Large enough to extrapolate across the country.
https://healthy-skeptic.com/2021/10/07/relative-death-risks/

A study from Israel covering 4,800 healthcare workers showed antibody levels waned rapidly after two doses of Pfizer’s COVID vaccine. Two studies published Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine confirm any immune protection offered by two doses of Pfizer’s COVID vaccine drops off after roughly two months — although protection against severe disease, hospitalization and death remains strong, the authors of the studies said. A study out of Qatar, researchers found effectiveness declined gradually, starting from the first month after the second dose, accelerated after the fourth month and reached a low level of approximately 20% in months 5 through 7 after the second dose.

Out of Florida, the Florida Dept of Health & Education data:reported that during September — with school underway — juvenile COVID cases & positivity rates plummeted. *No statistical differences* between counties without school mask requirements/offering opt-outs & counties imposing mask mandates on students.” Overall, new cases decreased by 79% in schools where no or optional masking was in place and for those districts that enforced masking, decreased 77% on average. Florida is also seeing significant decline in infections - At 27 new infections per 100,000 people, Florida now has the second lowest rate of COVID-19 infection in the entire country. Since the August 25 peak, the number of estimated infections by Nowcasting (covidestim.org) has decreased 95.9 percent. The reproductive transmission number (Rt) statewide is at 0.49 from a peak value of 1.45 on July 15.

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Globalism / Great Reset -
The federal reserve has just set a new record for the amount of overnight reserve repos, 1.6 trillion dollars as if the end of the September quarter. According to ICI Global, the total amount of money market funds worldwide is 4.54 trillion dollars measured in the same time frame. Since I am only good at simple math: 1.6 / 4.54 = .3524 (35%). That mean that United States Federal Reserve is providing slightly over 1/3 of the liquidity to the entire Commercial Paper market!
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Economy -

Senate passed the temporary debt ceiling bill - with great ruckus and to do. Schumer didn’t make any friends and further ticked off Manchin - who is key to getting any of the other democrat spending bills passed.
OBSERVATION - Again, I think McConnell is thinking long term by allowing a little democrat victory, he’s giving them knives and ropes as they will continue to fight and dicker until they are forced to address the debt ceiling again in a couple months;. General observations from the Senate debate is that Schumer burned some bridges to both the Republicans as well as key moderate democrats. The public will be entertained by more democrat fighting, lowering their polls even further while McConnell has given up very little.

Worries not only globally, but in the US over the availability of electricity this winter continue on . Ernie Thrasher, CEO of Xcoal Energy & Resources LLC., told energy research firm IHS Markit that U.S. utilities quickly turn to more coal because of soaring natural gas prices. “We’ve actually had discussions with power utilities who are concerned that they simply will have to implement blackouts this winter,” Thrasher warned. He said, “They don’t see where the fuel is coming from to meet demand,” adding that 23% of utilities are switching away from gas this fall/winter to burn more coal.

U.S. employers unexpectedly hired at a slower pace in September than in August.
The Labor Department released its September jobs report Friday morning. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
* Change in non-farm payrolls, September: +194,000 vs. +500,000 expected and a revised +366,000 in August
* Unemployment rate: 4.8% vs. 5.1% expected, 5.2% in August
“Most back-to-school hiring typically occurs in September. Hiring this September was lower than usual, resulting in a decline after seasonal adjustment,” the Labor Department wrote in its report on Friday. “Recent employment changes are challenging to interpret, as pandemic-related staffing fluctuations in public and private education have distorted the normal seasonal hiring and layoff patterns.”
OBSERVATION - Govt reporting on unemployment/employment just goes to show how screwed up they’ve worked the numbers over the years. Especially in the wuhan era.

Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released monthly data on the state of food prices that showed global food prices rose for a second consecutive month in September to reach a new decade high, driven by gains for cereals and vegetable oils.
The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities (including cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, and sugar), rose 1.2% in September to 130 points and 32.8% higher than in September 2020.
The latest rise in the FFPI was primarily driven by “higher prices of most cereals and vegetable oils. Dairy and sugar prices were also firmer, while the meat price sub-index remained stable,” FAO said.
Compound soaring freight costs on land and sea, along with supply chain disruptions, have left some grocery chains with no other choice but to raise prices and or to leave shelves bare as food shortages persist. An executive of Kroger, one of the largest US supermarket chains, warned last month that grocery prices are set to move even higher as inflation sets in.
Inflationary pressures prompted the White House to calm discontent among working-poor families who allocate a high percentage of their incomes to basic and essential items. The Biden administration acknowledged inflation as a real concern last month (only nine months late). The administration has raised food stamps by 25%. (Zubu)
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Invasion of Illegals -
While speaking with Fox News this week, President Joe Biden’s former Border Patrol chief, Rodney Scott, confirmed that under Biden’s leadership, U.S. taxpayers are paying millions of dollars each day “to not” build a wall along its border with Mexico. This is due to contract clauses. Payments are up to 5 million per day. ______________________________

Biden watch -
Biden claims the vaccine mandate is the ‘the single most powerful’ economic stimulus he has enacted.

In a speech in Illinois biden’s train of though got derailed - again. “The Ohio Pennsylvania, Ohio Pennsylvania, I’m from Pennsylvania. The Illinois President of the Don Harmon… Um, we got great leadership too. Where’s Tim? … Folks. That’s how we beat COVID-19,” said the President.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Missouri and Arkansas join Nebraska and West Virginia by refusing to comply with plan for IRS to be notified when accounts register more than $600 in transactions.
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Strategic Developments /Deployments -
US Navy submarine hits unknown “object” in South China Sea while submerged on Oct 2: US officials USS Connecticut now limping back to port with “no life threatening injuries” aboard. No damage to nuclear reactor. US submarine did not collide with another sub, official says. An official who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak on the record said that the area’s topography at the time did not indicate there was a land mass in front of the boat. - Navy Times

A US special-operations unit and a contingent of Marines have been secretly operating in Taiwan to train military forces there, part of efforts to shore up the island’s defenses as concern regarding potential Chinese aggression mounts.” China is predictably ‘upset’.

The combined British, American, Dutch, Japanese, New Zealand and Canadian fleet is sailing through the disputed South China Sea.
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Cyber Warfare -
Wednesday night, , Chase, Capital One, Wells Fargo, Citibank, US Bank and the SNAP-EBT system all suffered severe electronic banking trouble until about 11:00 PM. On Thursday, banks in the UK suffered similar troubles, with accounts showing ZERO Balances! No word as to the cause of the problems.
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China -
see Strategic Developments /Deployments above.
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Syria -
Heavy shelling by pro assad elements have been pounding the Idlib region for much of the past week.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
A suicide bomber has targeted a mosque in the northern Afghan city of Kunduz during Friday prayers, killing at least 50 people, local officials say. Though no group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, Sunni Muslim extremists, including the local Islamic State (IS) group, have targeted the Shia community because they consider them to be heretics. IS-K, the Afghan regional affiliate of IS that is violently opposed to the Taliban, has carried out several bombings recently, largely in the east of the country.
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Belarus -
Polish Border Guards spokeswoman Anna Michalska announced that on Thursday a patrol of Belarusian services fired shots in direction of Polish soldiers of the Polish Army on the border, possible with blank rounds.
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Wuhan virus -
A video showing Fauci and his HHS peeps in 2019 explaining how time-consuming RNA vaccine trials are, and how if only some “urgent call” that’s “not beholden to bureaucratic strings and processes” could come along they could introduce the vaccine more easily.

https://notthebee.com/article/heres-fauci-and-his-hhs-peeps-in-2019-explaining-how

I think it should be noted that Fauci also warned of a pandemic during the Trump administration.

Vermont, the state with the highest vaccination rate in the United States, is experiencing a CCP virus surge at levels not seen since the pandemic’s peak last winter.
OBSERVATIONS - more evidence that the vaccine narrative is failing fast.
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Economy -
Key point following yesterday’s poor jobs numbers - while the unemployment rate fell, so too did the important labor force participation rate, which has remained within a narrow range of 61.4 percent to 61.7 percent since June 2020. And the number of people who are not in the labor force — have no job and are not looking for one — is the highest it’s been since March.

On September 9th, Biden made the announcement that all employers with more than 100 workers would be required to enforce a national worker vaccine mandate. The White House stated that OSHA would, “develop a rule that will require all employers with 100 or more employees to ensure their workforce is fully vaccinated.”
However, following the announcement observers are noteing OSHA was not taking any steps needed to engage with business interests to trigger the first-step in the organization of a process to initiate a rule-making process. No deadlines have been established nor any thing to show movement on the ‘mandate’.

Inventories of distillates — used as diesel for both transportation and heating oil — are enough to meet 31.2 days of demand, according to the Energy Information Administration. That’s the tightest it has been for this time of the year since 2000. The dwindling supplies raise the specter of energy shortages and price spikes in the U.S. this winter — at a time when the rest of the world has already been upended by fuel shortages and blackouts. The reported reason for the shortage is a combination of increased fuel oil demands and refinery capacity down due to damage from the Texas freeze combined with scheduled maintenance of other refineries. Bloomberg suggests that some supply relief should come in November and December when refineries return from maintenance.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted global energy shortages covering oil. nat gas and coal. This shortage has hit hard and fast here in the Redoubt with diesel prices jumping 40 cents a gallon in less than two weeks. Those i generally consider alarmists have been beating the drum of US blackouts this winter and I’m looking close to see if the blind squirrel did find a nut. Clearly natural gas supplies are strained here as well as globally and coal has been depressed with closure of coal plants. My prognosis is that the risk of blackouts are the highest in states that have forced the wind/solar sources to the point of shutting down coal/gas/nuclear facilities. Poster children of this threat are kalifornia and texas. Other states with similar unbalances face a similar fate.
ADDITIONAL NOTE - the jump in diesel prices will impact prices downstream - increased food and other product prices. 30 day reserve leaves very little room for any potential disaster - no diesel, no trucks delivering critical products.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Harris AWOL from a meeting with Mexican officials in Mexico City on Friday regarding security along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Over the past few days, Fox news and soldiers are reporting cartel gunfights in Ciudad Miguel Aleman, the Mexican city across from Roma, TX, frequently in recent days and weeks. The soldiers heard gunfire and explosions two days ago and videos of smoke billowing after a gunfight have hit social media. Most recently tracers have been reported passing over a TX Natl Guard camp.
In a parallel news, armed cartel members are increasingly appearing near the border in full view of US agents seemingly to taunt them.
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Biden watch -
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said Friday that President Joe Biden is the most popular figure of anyone currently running for president or “any former recent president,” and “his agenda is incredibly popular.”
BREAKING NEWS - biden support at only 38% and falling like a rock.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Another dark blue city - Portland - is facing record murders and violent crimes this year. Another pro BLM/Antifa defund the police city .
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CYBER/CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -
According to The Register, Google’s advertisers have demanded their ads not be shown on pages which dispute the climate emergency. Google is resounding by demonetizing websites which contradict their climate narrative.
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Strategic Developments /Deployments -
It is being reported that the CIA has sent a top secret cable to all of its stations and bases around the globe reminding informants and agents to be more careful as adversaries counterintelligence have become more successful with tracking and finding operatives which has lead to an increased number of operatives killed in the field.

The first two of four B-1B Lancer bombers and some 200 support personnel from the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron of Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, had arrived at RAF Fairford, England, as of Oct. 6 to begin a series of U.S. European Command and U.S. Strategic Command exercises with numerous NATO allies and partners across Europe. (Air Force)
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China -
Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed on Saturday to realize peaceful “reunification” with Taiwan, though did not directly mention the use of force after a week of tensions with the Chinese-claimed island that sparked international concern. Observers note that the content of his speech was softer than in July, his last major speech mentioning Taiwan, in which he vowed to “smash” any attempts at formal independence.

Australia’s former prime minister Tony Abbott visited Taipei on Friday where he gave a speech urging the international community to show “solidarity” with the self-ruled island, resulting in a quick reaction out of China demanding that Canberra officials stay out of its internal affairs. China in response to Australia was that is could face cataclysmic upheaval for continued support of Taiwan.

The Evergrande et al financial disaster is continuing to run unabated by Chinese efforts. As a result, China is losing trust among global financial players.
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Israel -
Overnight, it is believed that Israel attacked the T-4 airbase near Homs Syria. It’s not the first time strikes have been conducted against T4 as Iran has been using it as a staging area for eventual operations against Israel. A stray S-200 landed inside Iraq believed to be from Syrian ADA operations. As usual, Syria claims they shot most of the missiles down.
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Iran -
It is reported thet biden has reportedly lifted sanctions on two Iranian entities involved in Iran’s missile program just as Iran is believed to be closing in on having enough nuclear fuel to build a nuclear bomb.
“The sanctions, targeting the Mammut Industrial Group (Mammut Industries) and its subsidiary Mammut Diesel, were originally imposed by the Trump administration in September 2020 as part of efforts to increase a maximum pressure campaign of sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear activity and actions in the region criticized as malign and destabilizing,” The Hill reported. “The entities were identified as being ‘key producers and suppliers of military-grade, dual-use goods for Iran’s missile programs.’”
OBSERVATION - This is a deliberate move by biden to facilitate Iranian objectives in nuclear development - delivery system to hit Israel with. Already Iran is moving forward fast to obtain enough pure uranium for a bomb, and now this. This action will only destabilize the regions even more and likely force Israel to launch a first strike.
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Lebanon -
Fuel crisis due to the economic implosion of the country is continuing to leave much of the country in darkness as there is no fuel to run the country’s power plants.
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Syria -
See Israel RE T-4 strike.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Afghanistan ISIS-K bomber that detonated his PBIED in Kunduz, killing 40-100 in a Shiite mosque is reportedly Muhammed al Uyghuri. He is noted by ISIS to be a Uyghur, framed in response to the Taliban & their relations with China.

State dept reportedly in negotiation with the Taliban over trapped Americans and allies still in Afghanistan.
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Wuhan virus -
More vaccine fails - Singapore’s Ministry of Health reported a major increase in breakthrough infections of COVID-19 for four straight days despite being ranked Number 5 in the world in vaccination rate. Over 80 percent of the country is vaccinated for COVID-19.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
The global fuel shortage continues in the news. China has ordered its coal mines to increase production by 10%. Lebanon is in the dark. The US has 30 days worth of diesel in reserve.
OBSERVATION - isolated shortages is one thing, but global shortages only point to one thing - manipulation by global forces towards the ‘great reset’.

Regulators with the Securities and Exchange Commission have given the green light to the Volt Crypto Industry Revolution and Tech ETF, which will trade under the ticker symbol BTCR. Volt Equity’s exchange-traded fund is the first of its kind, offering investors access to companies with significant exposure to Bitcoin, according to the agency.
OBSERVATION - Working towards general acceptance of digital currency and making inroads to regulate cryptocurrency. Control of money is key to the great reset.

Starting next week, all public and private workers in Italy will be required to have a digital COVID-19 health certificate or face being sent home on unpaid leave and fined up to $1,730.

After November 30, air passengers who have not received two recognized doses will not be able to travel to a Canadian airport. This law will apply to all persons in Canada, not just citizens.
OBSERVATION - Canada is following along with Ausrtalia’s totalitarian response to wuhan. The number of foreign nationals that may potentially be trapped could accelerate calls for a universal wuhan passport.

Bizarre footage from a parade in Covid-free Western Australia has gone viral, showing children dressed up and prisoners in a cage dancing on an unofficial ‘police’ float. OBSERVATION - Our world is going south fast.
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Economy -
The U.S. Postal Service’s controversial slowdown of mail delivery that began October 1 is sparking a pushback from 20 attorneys general. On Thursday, the state officials — ranging from California to New York — sued the Postal Regulatory Commission, alleging that the federal oversight agency didn’t fully vet the broad-ranging plan before the USPS moved forward with it.
OBSERVATION - This “slowdown” will severely impact smaller businesses who rely on timely delivery of their products to customers. The Postal Regulatory Commission is ignoring market based changes that would save money and make the system more efficient. Instead the word is essentially pay more for even crappier service.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Looks like the “whipping” report is headed into the round bin. Mayorkas, promised the matter would be investigated on Sept. 22, within “a matter of days, not weeks.”

biden administration is in the process of cancelling all of the border wall contracts, starting with Texas.
OBSERVATION - Pretty clear that this is political pay back for Texas refusal to bow to biden’s open border policy

Note - large numbers of illegals are reportedly enroute to Texas to try to force their way across the border.
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Biden watch -
I am surprised that biden hasn’t been removed due to his dementia by now. Part of this may be the utter failure of VP Harris to demonstrate any capability to replace him. Clearly the powers that be see it safer to run the country through a mentally deficient individual than a complete moron that Harris is proving out to be. Two weeks ago, Kamala Harris hired a “crisis communications expert,” to create a new image for her. She needed a “rebranding” it seems, to paper over her failures. Her stints as border surge czar and voting czar weren’t going over well with the public. Her staff flight and toxic work environment continued her downward trajectory. Epic failure.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Kalifornia is easing gang related enhancements to rulings. This will predictably lead to violent criminals returning to the streets sooner than currently. In a related issue, Chicago has a cat fight between the mayor and DA over charges (or rather the lack there of) members of gangs that were engaged earlier last week in a major shoot out. The DA dropped the charges saying that the gangs were engaged in “mutual combat” - never mind all the lead that was flying around. A similar “mutual combat” excluding was used to minimize charges against a teen (dont rememberers the city) who killed another in an arranged fight.
OBSDERVATION - Further lawlessness will only spawn conditions where leftists could feel free to go kinetic sooner rather than later when the next big rallying event occurs.

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CYBER/CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -
Frances Haugen, Facebook whistleblower, appears to be a plant to swing the congress into more censorship.
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China -
Virtual talks between U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and China’s Vice Premier Liu He follow Tai’s announcement on Monday that she would seek “frank” talks and hold China to its commitments under a “Phase 1″ trade deal negotiated by former President Donald Trump. Chinese for its part demanded cancellation of tariffs.

See Globalism for power shortages in China.
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Europe General -
German police announced Friday they are investigating an “alleged sonic weapon attack” on employees stationed at the U.S. Embassy in Berlin, the latest in a long-running series of attacks that U.S. officials are still at a loss to explain.
NOTE - This is a continuation of the “Havana” syndrome first reported by US officials in Cuba.
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Iraq -
Iraqis are voting in the first parliamentary elections since mass protests over corruption, unemployment and poor services erupted in 2019. Polls indicate that the main Shia Muslim blocs are predicted to win the most seats. The main contest is expected to be between the two largest blocs in the outgoing parliament - the nationalist Saeroun alliance of populist Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who wants to end Iranian and other foreign influence in Iraq, and the pro-Iranian Fatah alliance, mainly made up of parties affiliated with Shia militias in the Popular Mobilization (largely supported by Iran).

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Lebanon -
Power outages increase in duration.
NOTE - As reports earlier, a third Iranian tanker has docked in Syria to bring fuel to Lebanon. However this is but a drop in the bucket to what Lebanon needs to resume any degree of normality.
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Wuhan virus -
CDC trends show that wuhan - delta style - infections are on the decline in all but five states — Montana, Colorado, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania — which had at least 10% more new cases this past week compared to the previous week.

Much a do about the pending flu season. Big talk about the ’twin-demic’ . Some medical authorities are trying to claim that last years’ missing flu season was because of masking and social distancing. Never mind that flu has the same infection rate as wuhan and most likely was diagnosed as wuhan.

Currently RUMINT - Leaked documents show that the Chinese government is giving orders to officials throughout China to prepare for a predicted new outbreak of COVID-19 - monitoring.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

The city of Seattle, Washington, recently established a vaccine mandate for all city employees, which includes police, with a deadline of October 18th – or face possible termination of employment. Among those who haven’t submitted proof of vaccination are 292 police officers, and an additional 111 awaiting approval of submitted exemption paperwork, according to the Daily Mail. This creates a total of 403 officers that may lose their jobs on the 18th, if Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan enforces the deadline. The loss would constitute 37 percent of the police force’s total employees.
In a related - Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva says he doesn’t want to lose ten percent of his cops by forcing them to choose between their jobs and bodily freedom, so he won’t make them.
OBSERVATION - This is designed to increase domestic chaos and maintain fear in the population. Fewer police = increased crime.

The vetting process for military and Department of Defense personnel is now “continuous” as it applies to checks for security clearance approval. Known as the Trusted Workforce 2.0 program, it was first rolled out in March 2018. DoD representative notes the program monitors “criminal checks, suspicious financial transactions, foreign travel records, terrorism and counterterrorism databases, public records and credit bureau reports. Those categories are in addition to specific eligibility requirements laid out by the requesting agency or department.”
The not currently monitored, social media posts / activity is likely to be included in the future.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on Friday announced a major breakthrough on corporate tax rates, after years of disagreement. The group of developed nations agreed to a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15%. This marks a huge shift for smaller economies, such as the Republic of Ireland, which have attracted international firms — to a large extent — via a lower tax rate. Countries now have to work out some outstanding details so the new deal is ready to kick in during 2023. U.S. Congress would have approve legislation to implement the global corporate minimum tax.
OBSERVATION - Pretty obvious, first steps in controlling global economies. Just a short step to international economic action to control global warming, the leveling out economic inequality, etc.
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Economy -
Goldman Sachs cut its U.S. economic growth target to 5.6% for 2021 and to 4% for 2022 citing an expected decline in fiscal support through the end of next year and a more delayed recovery in consumer spending than previously expected. The firm previously expected 5.7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 and 4.4% growth in 2022. On a quarterly basis, Goldman cut both its fourth-quarter 2021 and first-quarter 2022 GDP estimates to 4.5% from 5% and shaved its second-quarter 2022 estimate to 4% from 4.5% while reducing its third-quarter estimate to 3% from 3.5%.
OBSERVATION - Some may raise the spectre of stagflation soon. Economic growth has been severely limited due to worker shortages, significant supply shortages/delays and skyrocketing prices across the board.

Word spreading in the economic world - “Inflation looks like it will be here for some time.” The “transitory” narrative has almost totally dropped from the news feeds.

Fertilizer prices have risen to a record high in North America, threatening to boost food inflation even higher. Nitrogen products are increasing due to the cost of natural gas, which is used in the manufacturing process. The Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index soared to a record high last week of $996.32 per short ton. Adding to this is China is shutting down the export of phosphate, key component of fertilizer mixes. Expensive fertilizer will push production costs higher for farmers worldwide, which will continue to increase food inflation.

Auto industry are expecting more and longer delays in computer chips. This is placing greater stress on the used car market.
QUESTION FOR FREEPERS - I’ve noted many of the car dealerships where I live in the Redoubt have mostly empty lots. Is anyone else seeing the same where they live?
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Invasion of Illegals -
Anger raised over cancelled wall contacts in areas hardest hit by illegals.
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China -
More than 1.76 million people have been affected by severe flooding in China’s northern Shanxi province, according to local media. Torrential rain last week led to houses collapsing and triggered landslides across more than 70 districts and cities in the province. Making matters worse for China’s energy crisis, the rains and flooding have forced China’s coal hub to close 60 coal mines. Shutdowns threaten production even attaining previous goals, let alone increased production direction to address the coal shortages.
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Iran -
Iran claims to have enriched more than 120 kg. of 20% enriched uranium. If true, the numbers could be considered a major jump forward in uranium enrichment, potentially eventually toward a nuclear weapon if Tehran made the choice to try and break the nuclear threshold.
OBSERVATION - The jump from 20% enrichment to 90% technologically is not that big, meaning that Iran could achieve weapons quality uranium in months now.
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Lebanon -
Just received a little fuel to put the power plants on line, for a little while

The Lebanese Army announced this week that it has seized over 28 tons of ammonium nitrate during a raid at a gas station in Arsal in the Bekaa region, which is near the border with Syria. The fertilizer can be used in bomb-making, and the seizure comes after hundreds of tons of the same substance caused the August 2020 blast which killed 200 people and decimated whole neighborhoods in Beirut. Arsal is a town that has been under the authorities’ microscope ever since the height of the Syrian war. “Arsal has become notorious in Lebanon after extremists from Syria briefly took over the small border town and engaged in deadly clashes with the Lebanese army in 2014,”
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Syria -
Shelling has generally quieted in the Idlib region.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
The U.S. has agreed to provide humanitarian aid to a desperately poor Afghanistan on the brink of an economic disaster, while refusing to give political recognition to the country’s new Taliban rulers, the Taliban said Sunday. Other word is that the US is smuggling money into the country for locals to use to purchase necessities.
OBSERVATION - Anyone that believes that the Taliban won’t get their fingers into the aid is smoking hopium. Just look at Hamas on how well they distribute humanitarian aid in Gaza.

Taliban are demanding the US and other nations pay billions in reparations to Afghanistan for the 20 year occupation. Taliban spokesmen are claiming that the UK is willing to pay up. Other NATO countries not so quick.
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Misc of Note -

Are people starting to ‘Go Galt’ over vaccine mandates? On Saturday and Sunday, Southwest Airlines canceled more than 1,800 flights nationwide. Initial RUMINT on the internet was that this was due largely to pilots taking unexpected vacation time prior to the wuhan shot deadline of the company. SW said the reason for the disruptions were due to air traffic control issues and weather. RUMINT also stated that traffic control issues in Jacksonville FL were due to a similar labor action taken in advance of the govt wuhan mandate.

Whats the real story?
- The union representing Southwest pilots told The Denver Post that its members were not participating in any type of strike. However on last Friday, the union representing SW pilots filed a restraining order against the vax mandate.

- Steve Kulm, an FAA spokesperson, said there were no air traffic staffing shortages reported. However, it is clear there were shortages Saturday in Jacksonville.

- Claims of weather delays by SW failed as weather services said otherwise.

- Finally, the FAA/weather conditions claimed ONLY affected SW and NO OTHER AIRLINE.

If it walks like a duck, quacks line a duck, swims like a duck and looks like a duck - it is most likely a duck. This has all the marks of a sickout - most likely to drive the message home to SW (though through plausible deniability for the union) the impact of the loss of flight crews will have on operations. Also, all airlines are still short of qualified flight crews who found other employment when laid off during the wuhan shut downs.

OBSERVATIONS - This is more than a shot across the bow. This hit on a three day weekend and created mega problems for the airline. I expect to see similar sickouts in other areas of the economy. Businesses can ill afford a significant loss of qualified personnel. The failure of the biden administration to follow up on its “100 employee” jab mandate may give some businesses a way out of his mandates. Key sectors to watch -

- Law enforcement / First responders
- Military
- Other airlines
- Other transportation
- food processors
- other industries
- government departments.

Checking flight tracker this morning shows SW flights largely on track and no spiked cancelations/delays.
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Black Swans -

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