Posted on 10/28/2020 1:04:39 PM PDT by Liberty7732
By Rod Thomson
The polls are the polls and no one other than the paid pollsters with obvious vested interests can tell you if they are accurate. They suggest Trump is down a couple of percentage points in Florida. That is highly doubtful for several concrete, number-driven reasons.
First, let’s understand the difference between polls and other data. The best polls ask registered voters who voted in the last two elections — labeling them likely voters — who they will vote for this year. In 2016, pollsters missed a few percentage points of Trump voters because those voters lied to them, unwilling to tell a stranger they were voting for Trump. That phenomenon is assuredly more in play this year considering the societal travails of being a Trump supporter in many parts of the country.
And Republicans in Florida and elsewhere have seen dramatically higher voter registration totals than Democrats since 2016, which means they are not showing up in those polls. Neither of these polling shortcomings are the fault of nefarious pollsters. Oversampling Democrats, however, is on pollsters and still seems to happen too often.
So polling numbers are squishy, malleable and missing important data. On the other hand, here are some concrete data points to consider that color a different picture.
Each week for the past several weeks, Republican volunteers knocked on three million doors and made one million phone calls to Floridians. (Side note: Democrats pay a lot of volunteers on a weekly basis, calling them the oxymoron “paid volunteers.” Republicans do not.) This election cycle alone, Florida Republican and Trump Victory volunteers have made more than 22 million voter contacts in Florida alone. They also held more than 55,000 events and mobilized tens of thousands of volunteers. This counters the Democrats’ monetary advantage for smothering ad buys — which is what the media is focusing on. Naturally. But human contact is proven to be the most effective.
Republicans have signed up something like half a million new voters since 2016 in Florida, lowering the Democrats once large voter advantage to less than one percent, and dwindling. Democrats held a voter registration advantage nearing 500,000 voters in 2016. That is now below 130,000 and continuing to drop.
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In the past five years, Florida Republicans have flipped 21 counties from blue to red via voter registration rolls. These were mostly rural counties, but not all. Pinellas County, which is home to St. Pete and the Tampa Bay Rays has one million residents as part of Tampa Bay, also saw Republicans pass Democrats in voter registration.
These voter registration efforts since 2016 have been a roaring success across the state, with Republicans beating Democrats in new registrations in even the large metro counties of Hillsborough and Pinellas counties (Tampa Bay) and Orange and Seminole counties (Orlando.) And amazingly, Republicans almost tripled the number of newly registered voters in Miami-Dade over newly registered Democrats.
This is not strictly a data point, but the largest Florida county has an incredible diversity of voters in its Hispanic community. It’s not just the conservative Cuban community, but Venezuelans, Guatamalens and Hondurans also trend more Republican because they come from failed socialist countries. The black community is also more diverse with the Caribbean influence, particularly Haitians who are much more conservative than traditional American blacks.
When you take this hard data just on face value, it suggests a different picture than the polls. But even with those, remember that all of the recent ones have the race even when considering the margin of error.
Rod Thomson is an author, former journalist, past Salem radio host in Tampa, Fla,, ABC TV commentator and is Founder of The Revolutionary Act.
I can’t speak for Florida, but the Trump ads are hitting big in AZ right now.
But Biden leads by 12 points. The MSM would not lie to us.
Three of the most pro-Trump supporters I know are individuals who were raised in East Germany, Romania, and Iran. Unabashedly pro-Trump. They know what’s at stake.
No but poll responders would lie to the pollsters, the ones that even bother responding at all
Are the ads good?
Trump just pulled all ads from Florida - it must be in the ‘win’ Column
So, while I'm sure Florida is in great shape for Trump in 2020, my hope is that they were an early harbinger of the rest of the nation.
A lot of surprisingly bad polling hit today I for one was not expecting it since it has been trending our way. I admit it is cutting into my optimism a bit.
Well, you’re a loser.
NOT TRUE and debunked earlier today. RNC is taking over the ads and the campaign is shifting funds to upper midwest
Like what for example?
I want MI and WI and PA.
Throw in MN for fun.
Democrats lie to pollsters too. They will claim to be “undecided” or “republican,” in reality they are sour, bitter, evil, mindless hacks.
17 points according to ABC.
Chuckle.
That’s a false report. The national GOP is now paying for them instead of the campaign.
GOP is now winning Palm Beach County in early voting. That county went 15 points for Hillary.
Dems are getting wiped out this year. Media polls are hoaxes.
[In 2016, pollsters missed a few percentage points of Trump voters because those voters lied to them, unwilling to tell a stranger they were voting for Trump. ]
Trafalgar has Trump down a fraction of a percent in both PA and WI. That may be what he was referring to. I don’t believe any of the hysterical MSM polls that have Biden up 10+ but if Biden squeaks out a win by 500 votes, it’s still a win.
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