Signs That Trump Isn’t Going to Win on Nov. 3

Townhall.com ^ | October 11, 2020 | Kevin McCullough

[Kaslin]

It’s a foregone conclusion and must now be faced.

Republicans have worried. Democrats have gloated. Libertarians, Independents, and Reformers have all weighed in. Now it must be acknowledged President Donald J. Trump is just not capable of winning this Nov. 3.

Perhaps the Democrats have finally found the silver bullet. After the Russia Hoax, Impeachment Farce, Lockdown Lies, Evaporative Economic Policies, Debate Blowups, and CoVid Contraction—they’ve even floated the 25th Amendment—which I only thought really bitter and nasty Never Trumpers would ever embrace.

But none of it has worked. Not even Nancy Pelosi’s prayers for the President’s health could keep him in the hospital for more than three days. And here one week after he contracted it — no one’s even discussing him having it because he’s symptom free and feeling twenty years younger.

So no... Donald J. Trump just doesn’t have what it takes to just win on November 3.

Because he’s going to absolutely crush the election that day. A #Trumpslide if you will.

Now the “smart people” will tell you that’s not possible and that he lags Joe Biden in the polls by margins to big to over come. If you only look at the selective polls listed in the Real Clear Politics average one might come to that conclusion (Just like they did in 2016).

One thing they won’t tell you though is that the hesitancy to tell pollsters what they think is a real phenomenon. A little more than a month ago Bloomberg published a survey that demonstrated Republicans and Independents are more than twice as likely as Democrats to not reveal to pollsters their true thoughts.

So if the polls that seem to point to a Biden win are wrong what was I depending on when I published my prediction map (the first of a few leading up to Election Day).

To be exceedingly clear — I find no evidence of a Biden win outside of the media polls.

But here's a short list of considerations that give us a better understanding of the race.

Enthusiasm Gap

The candidates already know that the president is winning by a mile. President Trump can’t help but to continue to draw massive crowds (even while in the hospital.) Every weekend, in every state, in hundreds of cities bikers, truckers, boaters, horse and buggy people, and regular pedestrians are having larger and larger participation in various parades of support from Miami to Manhattan and from Beverly Hills to Capitol Hill. Meanwhile Biden has trouble getting more than a dozen to show up at a tour stop in Yuma. And we all know people who say “I didn’t vote for him then,” or “I wasn’t really sure about him in 2016,” who have converted to “I’ll crawl over broken glass to vote for him now.”

Black Votes Matter

Is it significant that Candace Owens led a “Back the Blue” march through DC and to the White House yesterday consisting of thousands of African American voters? Is it important that President Trump received them? Does it seem to make an impact that President Trump oversaw the fastest job creation for Black Americans with the fastest growth in wages among the poorest Black Americans in the modern era? Evidently it does because he’s currently enjoying (what I perceive to be understated) support anywhere from 18 to 25 percent of Black Americans. When narrowed down to Black men he’s consistently in the low to mid-30s percentage wise. The modern era high for a GOP president is 11 percent. Democrat’s consistently need 90 to 95 percent support of Black voters to win. If Trump gets anything above 11 percent he wins big. If he takes 20 percent or more it starts to reshape states like Pennsylvania where he runs up the score in the west and enjoys enough Black support around Philadelphia so as to win the state convincingly. Carbon copy that for Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, etc.

Latino Support Sans Pandering

Biden also has challenges with Hispanic voters. The president has seen a broad based support with Latinos that similarly to Blacks defies modern era history. One veteran of elections going back multiple decades told me last week that the president may enjoy support as high as 45 to 50 percent of the Hispanic vote. A number that big just seems so unheard of for a Republican. It’s hard for me to grasp. But just realize this: if the president gets anything above 35 percent he will again shatter recent history and entire state compositions begin to shift.

Promises Kept

I’m also very bullish on an old fashioned idea, that if you keep a promise, you’ve earned a second-term. You do realize don’t you that Trump presents the opposite problems of most politicians? Usually a candidate makes a ton of promises and then either breaks them or does very little to fulfill them once in office. Clinton kept three over eight years, Bush kept two (outside of 9/11 related items), Obama a big fat one in his first-term. The president came to office and went to work on day one. He’s lifted more than 2,000 regulations on small businesses, got tax reform done, and started in on his list. By my count 127 promises later he’s still not finished.

It’s still the economy, stupid.

As insulting as it sounds it’s still the bottom line. People vote their pocket book. Voters know this instinctively. Biden has nothing to show for 47 years in DC. The president built the fastest growing economy the world had ever seen. In the past four months he’s produced the fastest job growth in history at just shy of 12 million jobs created, with more than half of those lost only months before due to the virus and ensuing lockdowns. It was precisely the tax reform and deregulation of businesses that allowed the rebound to occur so quickly. And just imagine how much more the recovery would be underway if governors and mayors who are keeping their cities and states locked down for political reasons would allow them to actually open up.

Oh the pundits, Never Trumpers, and Democrats will explain away Biden’s every foible. When he says the voters “don’t deserve to know” his view on a 150-year precedent breaking idea of randomly packing the Supreme Court, they will give him a pass. When the Biden-Harris bus rolls in and six people sit in a gym in big circles drawn on the floor, the media will ignore the contrast of 40,000 supporters on a rainy tarmac in Minnesota.

But this election won’t be decided by the pundits, Never Trumpers, and swamp monsters.

The American people are the only poll that matters.

On November 3rd, President Trump won’t just win, he will break records, shift turn out patterns, and crush his way to the biggest re-election victory since Ronald Reagan.

[dfwgator]

I have a feeling the lines of people voting in person will turn into impromptu MAGA Rallies.

[Old Yeller]

If trump loses, we all lose, including the idiot DemonRat voters.

[mass55th]

I’ve been praying for a red tsunami, all across this country, for a very long time. I pray President Trump, and V.P. Pence win in a landslide with the highest popular vote total, and the highest electoral college win ever reported in the history of this country. Please let it be oh, Lord!!

[LibertyWoman]

Wouldn’t that be something? Personally I plan to be first at my polling area but I might check back later in the day to see if that does happen. :)

[Truthoverpower]

The biggest sign of all the spontaneous rise of 20 to 50,000 great American patriot giant Trump make America great and American flags out there having a great time playing music right now !!!

Driving a round ; boats on the water ; driving their trucks ; driving their tractors are just having a good all-time !!

this is in Beverly Hills is in Ohio this is in Florida New York pa every state. this is everywhere

suck on at media

[wareagle7295]

It is a positive read, but the numbers for blacks and hispanics are pie in the sky at this point. If he could get 15% of the black vote that would be huge, and inches us closer to 20%.

The larger demographic to desire is the Hispanic vote (not because of skin color, but the percentage of the voting population they make up in key states, and really national going forward). Even in the legitimate polls we often curse, such as the polls down in Florida, there really does seem to be a beginnings in the shift in our direction for the Hispanics. It seems as though Trump got 29 to 30% of the Latino vote in 2016. Again, while i'm very happy about the trend, I'm holding my breath until after the election. I believe if there was actually a huge shift like that, Biden would not be that far ahead. And you would clearly see it reflected in other state polling results which I do not see.

By the way, it appears that this year Hispanics actually overtake Blacks as the largest minority.

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/

If Trump is losing some of his white vote, he would need to make it up by a larger percentage of the minority vote because they are only 25% of the voting total.

[smvoice]

I grabbed my pearls and stumbled toward my fainting couch when I read the headline. Thoughts of doom and the inability to ever accept this future swirled around in my head. Bleak was my outlook. Then in a moment of deep desperation I reached for any sign of saving words in that article which could rescue me in the depths of my despair:

I READ THE ARTICLE.

I coaxed myself to carefully face this apocalyptic scenario, one sentence at a time. And then..i received the reward for ACTUALLY reading the whole story before reacting. Never again will I take a headline as an overview of a story. Life is good.

[bramps]

Signs that your career in journalism could be on the back 9.

1. You need gimmicks to get readers.

[markman46]

i did read it and agree PDJT will crush election day.

[fhayek]

I have been through a dozen presidential elections. Every one has its gut wrenching moments. Moments of doubt and fear. But let's take a step back. Here we have a choice between a proven, pro-America leader and a lying, brain-dead weasel.

The American electorate is not stupid. It will make the right choice.

[Jaysin]

Is there anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 and who is voting in 2020 but is not voting for Trump again?

John Bolton, Jeff Sessions, and mad dog mattis.

[albie]

Great article! I must say the headline had my blood boiling.

[Wilhelm Tell]

I’m also worried about fraud. That and the fact that the left doesn’t have to be enthusiastic about Biden - they are rabidly enthusiastic against Trump and against anyone who is not a communist. Some good news is the Democrats have messed up in their ground game. There are a lot of factors. No one with any sense believes that the Zombie is 20 points up.

[FreeReign]

Let’s wait and see who actually reads this....

A surprising number of Freepers did.

There goes our reputation.

[WildHighlander57]

Ok I see that Shrub = Bush II, Bobo = 0-bama, but who are Jo O’Malley-Dillon, Turkey Neck, and Mr. Hospice?

[crz]

Heh heh...the last..

[gitmo]

Usually a candidate makes a ton of promises and then either breaks them or does very little to fulfill them once in office. Clinton kept three over eight years, Bush kept two (outside of 9/11 related items), Obama a big fat one in his first-term. The president came to office and went to work on day one. He’s lifted more than 2,000 regulations on small businesses, got tax reform done, and started in on his list. By my count 127 promises later he’s still not finished.

I had been wondering if anyone had numbers on this. Trump has been amazing at keeping promises.

[StAnDeliver]

"Too many of these articles don’t address the massive planned fraud"

But the Democrat fraud is specifically postcedent. Why do you think the Democrats flipped their own script suddenly at the end of September? Because their internals demonstrated that President Trump is in line for a commanding Election Night win, taking all of his #2016 states safely, and dead-heating in MN (10EV) and NV (6) and only giving back ME2 (1).

Let's say he claims those 2 dead-heat states , that 321-217EV. There is no amount of fraud to reverse MN-NV-WI-MI-PA.

BIDEN NEEDS ALL OF THOSE STATES. ALL. EVERY LAST ONE. (279-259)

People don't appreciate that this is an impossible task. Even Biden doesn't have the resources to send Election Law expert squads to FIVE STATES. There aren't enough qualified Election Law experts to send to PA and MI!! And consider also that Trump has Election Law experts on his side as well.

But let's back up for a moment. There is no way, none, that these networks and cable outlets will be able to resist calling states on Election Night. Otherwise PEOPLE WILL TUNE OUT, and this is where scumbags like Jeff Sucker and Concast and The Young Pukes are going to be 'hoisted by their own petard', as my grandmother liked to say.

Once they start calling states for Trump, leading just like last time with Trump "Monster Vote" states like IN, KY .. then loaded states quickly follow like OH, TX, NC, then FL!

All of these states will be declared by Rove/Fox and many online outlets for Trump, as his margins will be beyond the possiblity of 'flipping back' for Biden or in more vulgar terms, "Biden would have to win every mail-in ballot".

Additionally, Trump will lead in the PV until the West Coast comes in!

Election Night win will ring with the aura of authenticity, and then it will come down to, Biden doesn't have the stomach for a 5-state contested election.

Once it's clear Nancy kept the House (she will), Biden will concede after AP puts PA in Trump's win column and multiple outlets demonstrate flipping PA requires the limited count of Biden mail-ins to break at an illicit ratio (2:1 or something more bizzare, vastly, absurdly beyond the 1.2:1 Trump Election Night win ratio) to overturn Election Night results.

Biden's campaign thinks they have gamed this properly, but they have not gamed Election Night and the visual of Trump claiming EV victory before midnight and the visceral impact that will have on the populace, nor the amount of actual time available to talking heads to describe Biden's "uphill climb" to reverse Election Night results.

But Biden is an old pol whose time has passed, and he knows it. His was a shadow campaign to run a billion through The Machine, and they did that; they wanted to keep the House, they did that; they wanted to narrow the Senate; maybe we lose -1, maybe not.

Biden will kiss the ring when the time is appropriate, which is when he tells Turkey Neck to stfu and asks for Trump's phone number.

[Toughluck_freeper]

I don’t like being tricked by a headline

[RoseofTexas]

Wondering how many libs will stay home because of the pollsters sense of complacency like my sister?!! Gotta be millions!! This is working the reverse of what they want!! They are trying to depress Trump’s base but the opposite is happening with Hiden’s base!!! We are motivated while their side have been hypnotized with the we got it in the bag Complacency!! Galore!!