Americans Are Moving in Droves: Will It Totally Remake the Electoral Map?

Realtor.con ^ | October 6, 2020 | Claire Trapasso

[Diana in Wisconsin]

"Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Michigan could tip into Biden territory if home buyers from blue counties looking at homes in red counties went through with their purchases. With these razor-thin margins, that could be just enough to swing the election—or not, if home searchers decide to put off their buying decisions."

"'This movement could be enough to mean states that went for Trump in 2016 may go for Biden in 2020," says realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. "If people take their political beliefs with them, that could lead to a changing electoral map.'”

"Only one of 30 confirmed red states, Georgia, is not expected to be more blue in this election.That's due to folks from liberal strongholds such as New York and California, as well as more local, progressive cities, relocating to these more conservative parts of the country that boast lower costs of living."

"Eight blue states plus Washington, DC, are expected to trend more red this year. However, none is expected to tip for Trump."

[Libloather]

Cally goes red? How about that...

[Williams]

Sadly.

While I hoped,hope we can pull out this election, it’s going to happen that when the popular vote majority is democrat, eventually population will spread to other states, so the electoral college will reflect the popular majority.

[centurion316]

I think that this is wild speculation. Certainly change is coming, but I don’t think that anyone can predict in the way suggested by this article. Migration is only one of the variables that will be in play this year.

[SunkenCiv]

Partisan Media Shills update.

From the Realtor website this time.

[ripnbang]

It’s a hell of an assumption that everyone moving from a blue state to a red state is Democrat. Makes more sense that it’s the opposite. The remaining red voters from blue states are seeking refuge.

[MV=PY]

"To come up with these findings, realtor.com looked where home shoppers were based and the counties where they were searching for real estate online from August 2017 through August 2020. Our analysts looked at the percentage of the population in each county that voted Republican and Democratic in the 2016 presidential election. They then assumed that same percentage of home shoppers would bring those political affiliations to the counties where they were seeking to buy homes."

This is an invalid assumption.

It's at least equally as likely that the people leaving are in the minority politically in their state of origin. They're fed up and moving to friendlier territory.

A "study" based on flawed reasoning.

[End Times Sentinel]

An unpopular stance, I understand...
But my wife and I have raised our family in South Philadelphia for 35 years. I truly love many of our neighbors. The little things, my Church, the folks at the post office, my barber, dentist, bartender, tailor, watchmaker, shoemaker, so many others, mean the world to me.
3 years ago, if you told me we'd be considering moving, I'd tell you, you were insane.
If Biden steals this election, or if Philadelphia D.A. Larry Krasner (Evil Super-villan) gets re-elected, we may very well pull up stakes.In fact, if anyone has a suggestion for a cold weather state with a shore line, that's definitely RED, I'd appreciate the input.

[matt04]

That is kind of in my feelings for most so probably not all people who have moved.

[metmom]

It’s a hell of an assumption that everyone moving from a blue state to a red state is Democrat. Makes more sense that it’s the opposite. The remaining red voters from blue states are seeking refuge.

As in our case.

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

Meanwhile, many of the states, including Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, have a lot more registered GOP voters in 2020 than in 2016.

[Dr. Sivana]

if anyone has a suggestion for a cold weather state with a shore line, that's definitely RED, I'd appreciate the input.

Only one state meets all those. Alaska.

[Noumenon]

Idaho. We have lots of lakes...

[Lod881019]

Texas is a case of this the transplants from other states are actually what helped win Ted Cruz re-election

[Engedi]

NY’ers moving to Florida, Florida goes blue. No president can win an election without having Florida.

[Engedi]

Colorado was Red now becoming blue due to folks moving from California.

[Black Bart]

Recall all of this moving around is during a census year that will determine elected representation for the next 10 years. How many answered the census and then relocated?

[Jess Kitting]

"Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Michigan could tip into Biden territory if home buyers from blue counties looking at homes in red counties went through with their purchases. With these razor-thin margins, that could be just enough to swing the election—or not, if home searchers decide to put off their buying decisions."

It shouldn't make any difference in Presidential politics if people are moving within the same state--except for maybe the cheating factor--Vote counters in big cities are more prone to be corrupt.

Anyway, none of this "counts" in terms of the electoral college until 2024, right?

[Grampa Dave]

How much impact will the new 2020 census have on this, if any?

[Grampa Dave]

I have/had the same question.

“How much impact will the new 2020 census have on this, if any?

19 posted on 10/6/2020, 6:13:00 PM by Grampa Dave”