Posted on 09/27/2020 6:54:09 AM PDT by byecomey
For the extreme numbers nerds! Click through to the interactive predictor. (Probably not mobile friendly though)
The election predictor was made using available CNN exit poll data. Adjusting the values therein will "trickle" down to individual states proportionally by that state's exit poll data. For example, if you predict that men will vote Trump by 5% more, the ratio will adjust proportionally according to how that particular state voted for Trump.
The high third party prevalence made it tricky, so I provided three options to split third-party (3P) data. I don't recommend mixing crosstabs too much - the poll data wasn't super granular in the first place, so errors will accumulate the more you mix crosstabs.
But if we think about precedent setting trends, Trump first non-politician, Biden is the first virtual candidate, only video and released statements, you never see him, speeches are edited, interviews scripted. Safely controlled messaging
This could become a trend. Did anyone ever see Big Brother? Just photos. Did he even exist?
One angle not often discussed is college student turnout.
Many students are not in their college towns—will they vote with as high a turnout as if they were in those towns?
Keep an eye on this one—could get missed by all the “experts” until long after the fact.
Just from playing with the model youth turnout seems to have the biggest impact on NH.
Split screen should be there now, thank you for the suggestion: https://joeisdone.github.io/predictor/
There are still 5 states that are blue if Trump gets every vote. I included 20% democrat voter fraud and Trump still wins by a landslide.
That’s because not every state had exit polls. There’s no turnout information on these states, so there are no numbers to tweak for those.
There should be a blurb on the site to that effect - “only states with exit poll data will be updated” or something.
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