Posted on 08/21/2020 5:40:18 PM PDT by Nostradumbass
U.S. HERD IMMUNITY ACHIEVED By Nostradumbass August 21, 2020 For immediate release
Statistical analysis shows that the U.S. has reached herd immunity for Covid-19. Consequently, the current downtrends in daily new cases and deaths is sustainable. The downward trajectory of daily new deaths will now continue toward zero.
Herd immunity was always inevitable. Social distancing flattened the curve but also lengthened the curve. When social distancing relaxed, the curve became distorted with the so-called “second wave”.
The second wave was really just the first wave in the three most populated states - California, Texas, and Florida - which had not yet reached herd immunity. There was no second wave in New York and a few other states because those states had previously reached herd immunity.
The differences in total confirmed case rates and daily new case trends for Covid-19 at the state level demonstrated a historical correlation that could be used to predict the level of herd immunity for the U.S. as a whole.
The Nostradumbass model utilized regression analysis to determine the statistical relationship between the 7-day moving averages of (x) state level cumulative case rates and (y) the timing of peak daily cases. That state level relationship was then extrapolated to the national level.
• The model predicted that U.S. herd immunity would be reached in late July and the model later confirmed that herd immunity was reached on July 24. • Per Worldometer, the 7-day moving average of U.S. daily new cases peaked on July 25. We are now 33% below that peak. • The second wave of the 7-day moving average of U.S. daily new deaths peaked on August 2. We are now 11% off that peak. • On August 18, the 7-day moving average of U.S. daily new deaths dropped below the 14-day and the 14-day dropped below the 21-day indicating that the downward trend is sustainable. • On August 19, the 14-day and 21-day moving averages of U.S. daily new deaths also turned down confirming the trend sustainability.
Because the U.S. has reached herd immunity, there will be no “third wave” of Covid-19 deaths. Daily new deaths will instead continue on a downward trajectory until zero is achieved. And that event will almost certainly occur before any vaccines are available.
With the back-to-school period upon us, there may be a temporary reversal in daily case count. However, since young people do not tend to die from Covid-19, the downward trend in deaths will not be disrupted.
Sweden acknowledged the inevitability of herd immunity and therefore did not shut down their economy. Their daily new deaths peaked in April and have been negligible for the past few weeks. Meanwhile, Sweden’s death rate sits at 575 per million of population. The U.S. death rate is currently at 536 per million and still growing, though now growing at a decreasing rate.
***
Simple solution to the pandemic,,,,Make HCQ and Azithromycin OTC drugs so anyone who develops a cough and/or fever can go the nearest drug store and self medicate with the drugs along with Zinc Sulfate with correct dosage within 48 hours of symptoms and pandemic over.,,,,,instead of waiting a few days to get tested and 5 days for the results,,,,if over 60 years of age,,,,you’re dead.
Since the Covid-19 death rate has been exhagerated by labelling anyone who died while having any type of resperatory distress a “presumptive Covid-19 death... the most reliable indicator of where we are really at is the CDC’s death from all causes rate. This peaked on April 18 and was back to normal levels by the end of May.
The following chart in the middle of the page takes a few seconds to load up. Change the meausure from Covid-19 deaths to Deaths from all causes.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
This is going to get ugly:
Virginia Health Commissioner says he’ll mandate a COVID-19 vaccine
https://www.wric.com/news/virginia-news/virginia-commissioner-of-health-plans-to-mandate-coronavirus-vaccinations-once-available-to-public/
RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — State Health Commissioner Dr. Norman Oliver told 8News on Friday that he plans to mandate coronavirus vaccinations for Virginians once one is made available to the public.
Virginia state law gives the Commissioner of Health the authority to mandate immediate immunizations during a public health crisis if a vaccine is available. Health officials say an immunization could be released as early as 2021.
Dr. Oliver says that, as long as he is still the Health Commissioner, he intends to mandate the coronavirus vaccine.
“It is killing people now, we don’t have a treatment for it and if we develop a vaccine that can prevent it from spreading in the community we will save hundreds and hundreds of lives,” Oliver said.
Under state law, only people with a medical exemption could refuse the mandate.
The Virginia General Assembly is considering a bill during an ongoing special session that would allow people with religious opposition to opt-out of the requirement. The bill needs to clear a committee in the House of Delegates before the full chamber could vote on it.
Please explain why California homeless camps seem unaffected as a control group example?
Am I safer outdoors always?
Oliver is a lier. He said its killing people now and we dont have a “treatment” for it. YES we do, All the politicians take it. Trump took it.
You signed up, on 8/8/20 to post this vanity????
Please explain why grocery story workers haven’t keeled over, daily, for the past months.
If you cannot obtain HCQ, then Quercetin, along with zinc, is a recommended prophylactic protocol, by Dr Zev Zelenko.
We are now back on lockdown. Cases and deaths are going up. Not sure what you are talking about with “herd immunity.”
bump
Sweden has lost more people per million than we have. They have had numerous local lockdowns-they just didn’t do a National lockdown (like us). Their death rate is much higher than their neighboring countries-look it up. Their shutdowns at the local level have lead to the worst economic depression since WWII. Stop this “Sweden did it right” myth. Look at the facts.
Please explain why California homeless camps seem unaffected as a control group example?
—
They’re under 80 years of age.
Truly a Nostra-dumbass. Maybe that’s what you were going for. Congrats
The point is they let it run it’s course, we didn’t.
He hasn't yet confiscated all the guns and magazines they banned.
Well, when the Demon Rat Brown shirts kick in your door & hold you down to get your mandated vaccine, they can kill 2 birds with one stone & confiscate your illegal guns & magazines./s
the only people who have died, with a few outliers, are ELDERLY people and not just ELDERLY, but SICK and ELDERLY.....
I asked my primary care physician if he would prescribe HCQ if I was infected. He said that Kaiser would not allow him to do it because HCQ has not been verified by a clinical trial as a treatment for coronavirus. The problem is, I don’t know of any U.S. clinical trials for HCQ underway. For what I know, a U.S. clinical trial is necessary. The foreign ones do not meet the requirements.
We are now back on lockdown. Cases and deaths are going up.
= = = =
Condolences.
What part of the country/state?
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