Posted on 08/13/2020 6:37:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Back in June we reported that according to the latest data,US mortalities in 2020 were not materially different from the previous 5 years.
We posted updated data through week 34 in the 2019-2020 season.
Now there is a new report at PrimaryDoctor.org by Colleen Huber, NMD, that reveals total US deaths this year are actually lower than annual US deaths in 20 of the last 21 years.
According to PrimaryDoctor.org:
As of this writing, 32 weeks have elapsed in 2020. However, for each previous year, 52 weeks have already elapsed. How then can we compare deaths from all causes in 2020 to previous years?
I divided the total number of deaths for each year by the number of weeks. That is 52 weeks for all years, except for 2020, in which 32 weeks have elapsed as of this past Saturday, August 8, 2020, which is the most recently updated week in the CDC data cited. This gives us the average number of deaths per week for each of those years, and allows a meaningful comparison between 2020 and prior years.
CDC data provides deaths from all causes for all previous years in the 21st century. (6) (7) The CDC also provides data for all-cause deaths in 2020. (8)
Column D of Table 1 shows the total deaths divided by the number of weeks in the year to obtain an average number of deaths for each week in that particular year. That is calculated for all 21 years (2000 through 2020). 32 weeks for 2020 is highlighted to draw attention to that difference from the other years.
It is important to factor in the growing US population over the last two decades. The US population for each year is given in Column E.
Column G shows the ratio of total weekly deaths per US population for each of the first 21 years of the 21st century.
A comparison of the percentages in Column G are best seen in Graph 1 below.
It should be noted that the CDC estimates that at least 75% of all deaths have been reported and tallied within eight weeks. Therefore, there is likely little difference from the currently displayed numbers, and the numbers that will ultimately be displayed.
Dr. Huber concludes her report with this analysis:
If COVID-19 is genuinely the deadly pandemic that it is widely thought to be, then total deaths would not only be a little higher than usual, but would be much greater during the period of its peak incidence and closely following weeks. It is not possible to have a deadly pandemic rage through a population without increasing the total number of all-cause deaths during the year of its peak incidence, because there is no reason for alternate causes of death, (heart disease, cancer, etc) to simultaneously decline. Therefore, if deaths are not significantly increased above previous years for a given region, then there has been no pandemic, nor even an epidemic there.
On the contrary, what has been found is that so far there are fewer deaths per week in 2020, than in any other year since 2009. Although some of this lower death rate may be due to reporting lag, that lag is likely too small to explain the considerably lower weekly death rate in 2020 than in previous years.
It seems that there is no pandemic in 2020 of COVID-19 or of anything else, at least not in the United States.
Honestly with everyone cooped up most of the year, it’s not surprising. Leftists will proclaim it the year of safety or some crap.
With nobody going anywhere, there’s going to be fewer automobile accidents.
I would imagine that traffic fatalities have been reduced by at least 20K
This could be an issue with reporting deaths. It may take time to get every entry in the database.
I think she is adjusting her figures now.
Much fewer deaths because people are staying out of hospitals.
There were clearly increased death rates in some areas for a few weeks during the early COVID-19 outbreak in New York and New Jersey. But the data is not as clear for other areas.
A deeper analysis of month by month data would be interesting.
Has the reduction in medical treatment meant fewer people have undergone dangerous medical treatment? So fewer are cured of cancer, but also fewer are killed quickly by chemotherapy. More total will die from untreated cancer - but not yet.
13 Aug: Head Topics: from UK Telegraph: We are massively overreacting to new Covid ‘outbreaks’
New research confirms that the Government’s reliance on case numbers is driving an unnecessarily draconian response
by Ross Clark
The Imperial College study published this morning claiming that 3.4 million people ( six per cent of the UK population) have antibodies indicating that they have been exposed to Covid-19 provides no great revelation. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) has already published similar figures suggesting that 6.5 per cent of the population has been infected. Nevertheless, it is yet more confirmation of how irrelevant are the official statistics for Covid 19 cases – and what a nonsense it is to rely on them for policymaking.
According to the Government’s Covid “dashboard”, updated at 4pm on Wednesday, 313,798 people in Britain have had the disease. This is less than one tenth of the number suggested by the Imperial study. In other words, for all Matt Hancock’s efforts to ramp up testing, the vast majority of cases have not been detected...
The vast disparity between actual and recorded infections matters hugely because the Government keeps acting as if the recorded cases do reflect reality. A small percentage increase in recorded cases in Leicester and in Greater Manchester led quickly to a return to partial lockdown in those areas. Daily, the Foreign Office scans infection rates in other countries to decide whether or not to quarantine people returning from those places. People and businesses are being put to huge inconvenience on the back of a small uptick in a statistic which is pretty well meaningless.
What the official recorded statistics on Covid cases are really measuring is the extent and effectiveness of a country’s testing programme. The more tests you conduct, the more of those silent Covid infections – the 90 per cent which would previously have gone unrecorded – you will pick up...
Leicester’s “second wave” came after mobile testing vans were sent to the city. When you see graphs of new infections on Britain you need to read them in conjunction with the ever-increasing numbers of tests being conducted – 15,000 a day in mid-April rising to 164,061 on Tuesday.
There is a moral here. If you are a country whose economy relies on UK tourists, don’t test more people than you need to; let those very mild and asymptomatic cases go unrecorded. If you are resident in Britain and value your freedom to meet relatives, go down the pub and so on, think twice about getting yourself tested – your reward may well be to have your whole town locked down.
https://headtopics.com/uk/we-are-massively-overreacting-to-new-covid-outbreaks-14963168
8/13/20 update:
Unfortunately, I have to remove this paper for now.
Some diligent and astute researchers who read my paper have now directed me to data and pages on the CDC website that I had not previously seen, which will likely adjust numbers that I published.
My paper may have to be revised, and my revised paper will appear here when ready. Please know that many researchers are sorting through the data now, and will possibly post their information before mine is figured out. Thank you for your patience and continued interest in this topic.
Her data is not incorrect for previous years but it does seem that the CDC reporting is not as straightforward as the media leads us to believe.
This is Fake watch CNN the streets are littered with bodies ,D’oh
Nobody going anywhere? I was just in terrible traffic on the Garden State Parkway. Yes, traffic is lighter than usual but there are still a lot of people on the road.
Less elective surgeries killing people, less people getting staph or other infections from dirty hospitals and other misdiagnoses not happening. Doesn't say much for our hero health care front liners if true.
Coincidentally, an emergency room physician said SIDS deaths (crib deaths) have fallen to zero when he used to see several a week. He speculated that newborns and babies haven’t been getting their usual dozens of vaccinations during the shutdown. It’ll be interesting to see if autism is also lower for this same cohort. Only time will tell . . .
Earlier in the year it wasn’t.
We traveled a lot between NY and NH and our houses to move and for most of the spring, we were about the only car on the road. Lots of trucks, but very few people were actually traveling.
About the middle of May, there was a definite uptick and now it’s pretty much back to normal.
When Kamala SCREAMS about 150,000 dead from this virus Trump needs to throw these numbers back in her face!! I know people have been locked down but GEEZE these numbers are amazing!!
If you read the article the math was done with the consideration of a partial year!!
Give them time; they’ll have these numbers fixed before we know it.
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