Posted on 03/30/2020 2:55:56 AM PDT by dalight
When considering that possibility patterns in CDC’s regular ILI (Influenza Like Illness) surveillance data become interesting. I’ve taken their data, and applied my meager Excel skills to chart out some things that surprised me. Going into this, I expected to see mortality rates somewhere bump. Prior to January we weren’t looking for this virus. We’ve only had useful testing capability for a few weeks now. Given the information we have on disease progression, I assumed that there would be an upward trend in Pneumonia mortality as without looking for and testing for SARS-COV-2, victims should have been classified as deaths due to pneumonia. So I charted it, with the last 6 years of data published by CDC.
CDC calls week 40 of a year the beginning of the flu season, so all my charts are set to begin in week 40 of one year and end in week 39 of the next, showing years as flu seasons.
There is the customary increase at week 1, I assume related to holiday festivities and travel. However the 2019-2020 season shows week by week pneumonia mortality to be low compared to the last few years, which is not what I expected. What I truly did not expect was the sharp decline over the last few weeks.
I next looked at all-cause mortality. Perhaps COVID-19 deaths hadn’t been captured in the pneumonia data. But surely something this virulent would show somewhere. I was again, surprised.
(Excerpt) Read more at accordingtohoyt.com ...
Well, the same practices that work for preventing the spread of corona virus would work for preventing the spread of ANY virus.
It ought to have been expected that cases of the flu, and hence flu deaths, would markedly decline. Along with just about any other virus or bacteria.
The one thing people need to be aware of is not letting our guard down. Granted we have the best health care system in the world, but that’s only going to do so much.
The best measures are preventative, and that has to continue or we’re back to square one.
“Maybe Chloroquine is being prescribed for assumed Coronavirus cases without testing. Could it be this drug helps with the more common flu as well?”
no. it’s because much fewer people are contracting the flu because it’s spread exactly the same way C-19 is spread, and all of this social distancing, “cowering in place”, shutting down all social events, exercising continuous cleansing of working and shopping spaces, and stopping shaking hands is stopping the spread of flu as well as C-19 ...
this whole thing has been a massive social experiment that once and for all should prove to people how the flu (and colds) are really spread, and while obviously most of the current behavior alterations cannot be continued,many can, such as continuously cleansing and elimination of hand-shaking ...
Fewer work related deaths because no one is working.
Fewer automobile accident deaths because fewer people are driving.
Fewer aeronautical deaths because no one is flying.
Fewer deaths on the operating table because no one is getting elective surgery.
Etc.
They just make up the flu numbers every year, so of course we would be below those fake numbers.
My doubt is about how many didn’t die in the U.S.. I’d put that figure at close to 330M, not 20,000. How many jobs did Obama save?
Bull Shit, no matter what this blog or you say.
Well, that can’t be true. All the experts (and some of them advising Trump) said we should expect the peak in the next 2-3 weeks. !??!?!!!
Hence, Trump’s new guideline of quarantine till end of April.
Our domestic enemy want our economy destroyed or severely damaged. Even if our economy bounces back stronger than before, they are hoping the populace WILL grow to be whole dependent on the gubmint handout.
There is an easy way to quantify 1 vector - abortions. As in many states, abortion is NOT considered an essential service, and those death houses are now closed down, the number of saved lives would equal the number of abortions not performed.
In 2016, the abortion rate for the US was just under 12,000 per week. If all abortion clinics were shut down in the US, it would only take two or three weeks to save the lives of enough babies to more than equal the number of deaths related to Covid-19.
This does not even count the flu numbers.
Chloroquine can be ruled out as correlated with the drop in other flu infections and deaths because it is not being administered to people who "justreally" have the flu.
This is common sense: 1) people are social distancing-which also keeps the flu at bay and 2) people are finally keeping up with good hygiene. This isn’t rocket science-and any moron (well-except apparently some people here) can see that.
There are lots of hotspots that could sustain this for a few weeks as their cases grow.
Also-if you look at the CDC weekly surveillance numbers-it’s very clear they test all hospital admissions for the flu and describe which type it is. This is just someone who (again) doesn’t know how to properly look at data (like a pig looking at a wristwatch). When someone is in the hospital, and has a pneumonia-the first thing they test for is the flu.
fascinating and proves my own theory. There is a lot more immunity west of the Mississippi and particularly, west of the Rockies. Wait and see. Don’t mistake that as me treating it lightly. But I think we need to find who has immunity and fast because we are seriously low on blood!
“And maybe they should stay at home when sick so that the number of people who get sick is diminished. Overall economic efficiency might actually improve as a consequence. Chloroquine can be ruled out as correlated with the drop in other flu infections and deaths because it is not being administered to people who “just really” have the flu.”
everything you just said is 100% correct ... and hopefully, corporations and businesses will make it corporate policy that sick people STAY THE HELL HOME UNTIL THEY ARE WELL ... another thing that might happen is that social stigma will attach to sick people being at work and in public and social shaming will become the norm for those violating the new social standard ...
Also, the drops on the charts also reflect at the begninng mistaking covid 19 for flu. no explanation for the late Feb and march drops. no sense.
that should have said PRE feb March drops.
“perhaps some of the policies will become permanent?”
So no one is ever going back to work other than government workers and short order cooks?
It amazes me how much sway Fauci has with his bombastic projections on “possible” deaths in this country. Instead of possibilities, he should be talking about “probabilities”.
I just wonder if such a stigma would last? Great post nonetheless, food for thought!
> So no one is ever going back to work other than government workers and short order cooks?
lol
When I was a kid, my grandmother gave a ride to a classmate. When she realized he had a cold, she embarrassed me by telling him to sit as far away from me as possible.
She had lived through epidemics in which many kids died.
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