Posted on 01/17/2020 8:24:47 AM PST by Liberty7732
There has been a considerable amount of gleeful, even hopeful, reporting nationally that Florida is about to become a blue state, shedding the status of the largest swing state and sliding into the blue column.
A few events were pointed to hungrily as evidence for this inevitability: the wave of Puerto Ricans moving to Florida after the devastation of Hurricane Maria was going to balloon the Democrat voter count by hundreds of thousands as they are American citizens and can vote; Amendment 4, the felon voting amendment passed by voters that automatically reinstates voting rights for those who served their time would also adds thousands to Democrats because everyone knows criminals vote for Democrats in much higher percentages; and of course President Trump’s unpopularity was tainting the GOP brand far into the future.
Well not so fast. It appears that, like clockwork, the media mistook their fondest hopes for actual reality.
The 2019 voter data is in, and it doesn’t look good for the Democrats or their media. More than 663,000 voters have registered since the 2018 midterms, and they broke evenly between Republicans and Democrats. That includes the felons and the Puerto Ricans. But, when you factor in voters who switched parties or who are no longer active on the rolls, Republicans actually gained a modest 22,000 voters on Democrats. In a state with such tight statewide elections regularly, it matters.
This actually continues a trend. After the 2014 midterms, Republicans gained 129,000 voters on the Democrats. And after the 2010 midterms, they gained 74,000 voters.
This is all the more significant in that Republicans vote in higher percentages than Democrats. This is why Florida is a swing state in presidential elections, but has a majority of Republicans in Congress and the state Legislature — despite the fact that about 37 percent of voters are registered as Democrats, while 35 percent as Republicans.
Republicans have been closing the gap for many years now. As the Jacksonville Times-Union reports: “Democrats’ voter registration advantage over Republicans is slimmer than it was in 2018 or 2016, when Republicans won the state, and it’s significantly slimmer than in 2012 and 2008.”
The only wild card in this data pool is that No-Party Affiliation candidates in Florida continue to grow the fastest, outpacing both Republicans and Democrats.
But again, because of voter turnout — highest among GOP voters — the trend is positive for 2020 and beyond at this point.
So while Democrats and the media dream of creating another giant blue state to go with California and New York, it looks more like Florida may be becoming a red state, or red-purple.
As a native Floridian, I would argue Florida has always been a red state. It may be a bit more purplish with that giant influx of a Leftist Yankees into Dade, Palm and Broward counties, but the general trend has been pretty much the same as other Southern states.
What’s happening is Trump is finally turning the corner with Hispanics of 2nd gen+ and Black voters. The left overplayed their hand and now this hamfisted attempt to reel them back in with a buffoon like Biden and his false slightly left of center candidacy. The Democrat party apparatus since 2004 has completely surrendered to the leftists crazies. No way prior to 2000 could a leftist imbecile like Pelosi be handed the speakership. Was inconceivable, she was a leftist crazy that would have been on the back bench and buried in some useless committee as a junior member. They took the perfect storm aberration that was Obama and thought they had a movement. They misjudged badly. America does not want San Francisco, Portland Or or Seattle.
All the Puerto Ricans and Cubans I know like Trump. These people (admittedly mostly men) are not SJWs, they pay taxes, and they can’t stand extreme leftist social trends. The thought of them voting for Warren or Sanders is a complete joke.
I don’t think it can be underestimated just how much Obama destroyed the Democratic Party
This could be the subject of a PhD thesis at any university but the main themes are the following
One his image
The image that the media created for Obama was incredible he’s in articulate young black guy with a nice wife and family and they scrubbed all of the history of his comment is past with Frank Davis and all the unscrupulous stuff in Chicago such that he had a completely clean slate
This created all of those bumper stickers with the rainbows and all of defining attention and everything for him
Two. His demeanor.
Obama is an incredible politician and gives an unbelievable speech
Nothing is really memorable than any of his speeches but in terms of his articulating the Democratic position of work for you the poor and those rascally woke up Republicans he was a master and did an incredible job completely D borrowing the Republicans the entire time he was in office
Three. He completely dethroned and got rid of the Clintons by defeating Hillary in 2008. He also dethrone slick Willy has the greatest speech giver in democrat history
Four. He didn’t really care at all about the democratic party or it’s fortune and really only cared about himself this was very clear and the fact that he didn’t really want to govern or do any of the hard work of negotiating pills but rather just wanted to have an image party and play golf
Five. He was exposed for being a non-entity over the eight years he was president by things like Obamacare and Ben Ghazi and the Muslim terrorist attacks
All that being said he steered the party much more to the left and made being hard laughed much more acceptable and now he is considered a moderate mature center of the road representative pooh-poohing NTT the AOC’s of the world
So the crux of the argument is he’s a unique individual and the Democrats will never be able to find somebody like that ever again witnessed the clown show that they have now octogenarian’s shrill idiots and young articulate gay guys who really don’t have anything
In a way we should be grateful. A politician like Trump only comes as a reaction to a politician like 0bama.
I split my time between Broward and S America. Broward is pure Democrat scum but the numbers are going down.
—IMHO, the outcome of the next election depends almost entirely on how many votes the Democraps can steal—nearly everywhere—
‘The 2019 voter data is in, and it doesn’t look good for the Democrats or their media.’
I’d venture that sums it up; dems won’t likely win FL...
‘and the Democrats will never be able to find somebody like that ever again’
dems have had two such individuals in the past 60 years in Kennedy and Clinton; ‘ever again’is a long, long time...
I think a growing number of Americans of color are finally figuring it out about White leftists. As an American and Freeper of color I’ve run into these smarmy, know-it-all libs in the field of education where I work. It’s a patronizing kind of racism that many of them exhibit. They assume most people of color are impoverished, and are child-like in their thought processes who need to be taken care of, and it is they the White liberal who will protect them and show the way. I’ve dealt with this on some scale my whole life. I do a lot of traveling for my job and I always run into educators who start bashing Trump when they engage with me in conversation. I politely tell them MAGA and move away from them. I always love the stunned looks on their faces when they can’t compute when a person of color doesn’t agree with them. I love it!
Then why did voters gove convicts the right to vote?
Republicans need it, sonce Texas is on the verge of blue.
Three felons I know registered as Republican. One is a businessman who was jailed wrongly (his ex said he raped their son), the two others know Dems are going to make America socialistic...
Many thanks for the real-time political thinking in the hustings.
Glad you’re on our side.
A 15 percentage of black votes elected DeSantas. He is the canidate to keep MAGA going. DeSantas in 2024!
!
Believe me as an ex-Democrat cult member I’m GLAD to be on this side of the political aisle!
Love ya, baby.
In terms of 2020 anyway press will play up FL as “in play” but it isn’t.
Trumps margin will be significantly higher across every state in 20 vs 16
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