They could push her as their 2020 progressive-derangement version of JFK... she's already got her Johnson [Hat tip to "dead" for the image]:
Posted on 06/10/2019 4:27:14 AM PDT by EyesOfTX
Today’s Campaign Update (Because The Campaign Never Ends)
It’s very predictable that Jeff Greenfield can’t predict anything accurately. – Dinosaur DC Swamp creature Jeff Greenfield had a typically vapid piece in Politico on Sunday that sums up the sorry state of media punditry in the nation’s capital quite nicely. It’s a piece filled to the gills with the vapid nostrums and shibboleths adhered to by the DC pundit class, and thus exactly what we would expect to see published in Politico.
Greenfield, who bills himself as “a five-time Emmy-winning network television analyst and author,” has been completely wrong about everything since the day in June, 2015 when Donald Trump and Melania rode down the escalator at Trump Tower to announce his candidacy. Frustrated by his own foolish consistency, Greenfield assumes that, because he is an awarded “expert,” everyone else must be wrong as well. Thus the title of his piece, “Why You’re Wrong About the Democratic Primary.”
The thesis of Greenfield’s piece is itself highly predictable, and not just because of its headline. It’s also utterly predictable that a guy who is always wrong – like Greenfield – would pen a piece claiming everyone else is just like he is. After all, didn’t every “expert” predict about 500 times between May, 2015 and May 2016 that Trump’s campaign was dead, and that some random event represented the “beginning of the end for Donald Trump” like Greenfield did?
Didn’t every “expert”, inside-the-beltway pundit predict that Hillary Clinton would best Trump by a landslide? Didn’t every “expert” in our fake national news media predict about 300 times between Robert Mueller’s appointment as Special Counsel in May, 2017 and the issuance of his report in March, 2019 that “Robert Mueller has got the goods on Trump?”
Well…yeah. Yeah, they all did predict all of those things. Greenfield even admits as much waaaaaayyyy down at the bottom of his piece where, after writing 800 words of drivel about how the “lessons of history” tell us that nothing about this current nomination battle is in any way predictable, he says:
In 2016, Donald Trump, a candidate with no political experience and no measurable support from his party’s establishment, never trailed in the polls and was never seriously threatened during his campaign for the nomination. Based on the lessons of history, Trump’s inevitable fall was confidently predicted by journalists and insiders, even as he racked up primary victories and delegates.
So, if Greenfield is talking exclusively about inside-the-beltway DC media “expert” pundits, then his piece would be accurate. But if – as the headline appears to imply – he’s also talking about seasoned observers who have never lived inside-the-beltway bubble and who understand how the 99% of the country outside of the nation’s capital works, then Greenfield is massively wrong.
The problem with DC pundits is not that they rely on the lessons of history, but that they don’t understand what those lessons of history happen to be. I was telling my clients in December of 2015 that Donald Trump was almost 100% certain to be the eventual GOP nominee due to one simple lesson of history about the GOP, which is that, since the advent of polling just after World War II, that party has always, without fail, ended up nominating the candidate who led in the polls in the December prior to the election.
In May, 2016, I told a gathering of about 30 corporate CEOs and other senior executives that Donald Trump would probably win the general election due to another simple lesson of history, which is that every presidential election is determined by the overriding national public mood, i.e., is the public interested in change or is it wanting to preserve the status quo? The public in 2016, after 8 long years of oppressive, economy-dampening regulation by the Obama thugs, was definitely in a mood for change, even the radical change being offered by Donald Trump.
This was at a time when Greenfield and his fellow media “experts” were myopically predicting a Clinton landslide based on an array of polls they all knew were flawed at best and intentionally faked at worst.
But back to the Democrat nomination race. We can’t sit here today and confidently predict who the nominee will be – Greenfield is right about that. In fact, because of the proportional system of awarding delegates the Dems have adopted for the election cycle, we may not be able to do that until next year’s convention rolls around.
But there are all sorts of things that are very easy to accurately predict about this race at this point in time, most of them based on “lessons of history” that Greenfield and other media “experts” seem incapable of grasping.
Here’s a lesson of history: No candidate who lacks a compelling basis for entering the race in the first place is going to become the eventual nominee. See Gillibrand, Kirsten as a prime example. That desperate, humiliating video we saw of her pandering in an Iowa gay bar on Saturday was pretty much an inevitable outcome for a candidate who has literally no reason to be in this race to begin with. This same lesson applies to other mystery candidates like Bill DeBlasio, John Delaney and Steve Bullock (who is the Governor of Montana, for those 99% of you who have never heard of him). All these people and several others who have no compelling reason to run might as well go home now.
Here’s another lesson of history: Failure to strike while the political iron is hot can be fatal. See O’Rourke, Irish Bob as this year’s best example. The fake news media was in love with “Beto” and desperately wanted him to get into the race last December, January at the latest. I wrote way back in January that Irish Bob was missing his moment, but did he listen? Nooooooo. Irish Bob piddled around for another two months before finally coming out as a candidate, and by then his date to the media prom had been taken by Mayor Pete. Now, Texas Dems, seeing O’Rourke’s candidacy dead in the water, are desperate for him to come back to Texas and challenge John Cornyn for the U.S. senate seat.
How about this lesson of history: Age matters, and it matters a ton for some of these people. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are simply too old to be president of the United States. Neither will be the party’s nominee. Mayor Pete is simply too young. He won’t be the nominee, either, although he will be able to compete in the primaries and carry enough delegates into next year’s convention to be a bit of a power broker if no clear nominee emerges from the primary elections.
One final lesson of history: The nominee will always be someone who is in step with the party’s voter base. We have to caveat this one this time due to the proportional awarding of delegates, which creates an unusually-high potential for a brokered convention where you might see a compromise candidate like the Pantsuit Princess or Michelle Obama or even Oprah Winfrey emerge. But the candidate who will emerge from the primary elections with the most accumulated delegates will be the person who can most authentically play the party’s identity politics game, enthusiastically support the party’s lurch to outright infanticide, and keep the party’s irrational social media mob ginned up. This very dynamic is why you are seeing Elizabeth Warren’s polling numbers firming up slowly as the race goes on.
In addition to being too old, Biden simply has no ability to satisfy this final lesson. He won’t be the nominee. If he is, then we would be looking at a Trump landslide of 1984 proportions, as a discouraged and dissatisfied Democrat voter base stays home in droves on Election Day.
Jeff Greenfield and the other DC media “experts” think I’m wrong about all of this. What do you think?
That is all.
Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon
....let the circular firing squad begin....
I still say Hillary will step in at the last minute to “save the party”.
“I still say Hillary will step in at the last minute to “save the party”.
Please, let that be true. She’s damaged goods. Trump would beat her like a rented mule.
L
Of course! Trump is pretty much unbeatable which is why smart Rats like MacAwful aren’t even trying.
So Obama had a compelling reason to run but this crowd doesn’t?
I’m going to bet against a brokered convention.
Biden (or Sanders) is not too old to be the nominee; Trump himself proved that. Yes, they’re both a bit older than Trump, but Trump’s age greatly diminishes the “too old” argument.
Whoever’s the nominee of the Dem party, we can assume that person will receive more popular votes than President Trump. Hillary received 3 million more votes than Trump.
The Dems have won more popular votes in six out of the last seven elections due to our rapidly changing demographics fueled by mass immigration and higher minority birth rates. This year, 2019, marked the first time that half of the children 18 and under are minorities. From here on out, each cohort that turns 18 will be more minority and more Dem than the previous one.
2020 will be a close election no matter whom the Dems nominate. It is baked into the cake.
bs
First of all, let’s lay down one factor that I think is more important than all others;
The DNC & media rig things.
It’s what they do.
They want to rig general elections, but they don’t have complete power (except in CA & NY). They rig primaries.
Here are my top four dem candidates.
Buttgeig.
The media haven’t quite figured out yet how much (hard to poll) he will be rejected by midwest/rustbelt voters in states they want to flip back. But he is articulate and appealing to lefties and if they think they can pimp him successfully to suburban independents, he is their new Obama. Anyone who attacks him will be gored by the media beast as homophobic. They’ll get over the fact that he is white more for this reason than any other.
Sanders.
This is his turn. I just don’t get the feeling that the DNC machine is giving him the push he expected. Don’t be surprised if it’s coming though, particularly if something happens to Biden and Buttgeig. They like him because they think he can hang with Trump in debates better than Biden (the reason they also like Buttgeig). They like him because he energizes their base. He is still white though. And male.
Harris.
All the identity politics you want, and a tongue that can be sharp at times. She will rise to the top if anything happens early to harm the momentum that Buttgeig has and the following Sanders has.
Biden.
The establishment believes it’s his turn, not Bernie’s. He is a career man and was VP for 8 years.
... but if they don’t think he can beat Trump, they’ll turn on him. He has to prove he can keep his wits, and use some sharp wit. So far the jury is out but I don’t think he has long. I personally think the reason he has been gone for a month is that he is getting coached. If they can frankenstein a new Joe, better, faster stronger, he still has a good chance. I don’t believe it, but he’s still fourth right now.
They could push her as their 2020 progressive-derangement version of JFK... she's already got her Johnson [Hat tip to "dead" for the image]:
Do you want to bet that VA will vote Dem again in 2020? I watched firsthand over 36 years VA transform from a solid red state to a solid blue state. Demography is destiny.
So Obama had a compelling reason to run but this crowd doesn’t?
Absolutely, if you think like Democrats think. Obama presented a very compelling alternative to the party’s tired, old establishment: a young, black, probably gay guy who is articulate and does well on television. He was an utterly unique presence in the Party in 2008.
Now, compare that to Kirsten Gillibrand: What does she bring to the table that half a dozen others in the race don’t also bring?
I’ll await your answer.
Obama being the first black president is what was a “reason” to run, so Gillibrand could make the same claim, as Hillary did, the times she ran.
A “compelling reason to run” matters for the general, not as a matter of uniqueness in the primary. Barry wasn’t the first black Dem to run for the office and he wasn’t elected for probably being gay.
And the snottiness of your “I’ll await your answer” is offensive and uncalled for.
I’ll stand with my prediction of Mike the Wookie ending up being the dem nominee.
“I still say Hillary will step in at the last minute to “save the party”.
I agree. I think I am starting to see this being put into place.
I agree. I’m not saying Hillary will make it to nominee but she will try. Reasons in her and her supporters’ minds she should be selected:
1. You owe it to her.
2. The age thing doesn’t matter since Joe and Bernie are in there.
3. First woman president.
4. Revenge against Trump.
5. More moderate than the other candidates (I know, unbelievable).
He says Biden and Bernie are too old, but doesn’t the author realize Warren is only a couple of years younger than them?
Biden (or Sanders) is not too old to be the nominee; Trump himself proved that. Yes, they’re both a bit older than Trump, but Trump’s age greatly diminishes the “too old” argument.
____________
Biden and Sanders present as old. Both are gray. Bernie is hunched. Biden looks ‘well-preserved’, at best. Bernie rants at people, overshouting them when they disagree. Joe smirks and flip-flops.
Trump not only presents as vital and energetic, he actually looks younger than when he first announced. He articulates the desires of over half the country and backs his rhetoric up with results. He beat 16 contenders in the primary and even with massive rigging, he won the election, which was likely less close than it appears.
He has survived 3 years of every well-coordinated trick they could think of. He has quietly put together a coalition of nationalists across the globe. He began his re-election campaign within months of inauguration. He has capital and is well-aware of all the threats he faces. He’s hinted at on-going efforts to combat the vote fraud, not the least of which is deporting the army of illegal voters in CA and IL and NY. He’s peeled off percentages from every faction of the identity politics ploy.
He beats Bernie or Joe, IMO. The others are just a Greek chorus. If any one of them secures the nomination, they will lose, too.
Hillary: old news.
Michael: too lazy and the memes have gotten traction.
Oprah: oh, puleeze.
All 3 of them appeal primarily to some black women (not all).
Donald Trump is a force of nature. At this point, I don’t think even a contrived market crash will succeed for the progs. 1) it’s expected. 2) the market is not the economy.
An EMP? Could throw a wrench in the works, but Trump will still be President while the election is postponed. And I’ve read that things are being done to harden as much as possible, including the military. I believe there are contingencies available if we are EMPed. It will be a mess, but it will also be an act of war and will unite the country.
Aliens (non-human type)? I can see the efforts to set this up as a narrative, but I don’t think it will cause people to suddenly support Biden or Bernie or some other clown. For all they know, President Trump will turn it into a win, as he has every negative situation in his life.
Progs will be progs. They will do what they can within their party to set up their per-determined favorite. Trump will whip them all.
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