Posted on 03/21/2019 5:07:06 PM PDT by usafa92
President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations.
But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses.
Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices — along with the historic advantage held by incumbent presidents.
While Trump appears to be in a much stronger position than his approval rating and conventional Beltway wisdom might suggest, he also could wind up in trouble if the economy slows markedly between now and next fall, as many analysts predict it will.
And other legal bombshells could explode the current scenario. Trump’s party managed to lose the House in 2018 despite a strong economy. So the models could wind up wrong this time around.
Despite all these caveats, Trump looks surprisingly good if the old James Carville maxim coined in 1992 — “the economy, stupid” — holds true in 2020.
“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not. “I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that.”
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
On the one hand, he could do great. On the other hand, he could do terrible. Ben White is a very insightful analyst.
He make a good climate change reporter after the election is over. “This could happen, but maybe that will happen.”
I think he’s going to win more on the fact that the left has got completely bat sh*t loco.
Let’s not be over-confident. The Dems are experts at voter fraud.
“huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses.”
You can forget using top down economic models for predicting today’s presidential elections which are based on electoral votes in a handful of key states. Many states like CA and NY are absolute locks for the dems. Many are fairly safe for the pubs. It comes down to the battleground states.
Ben White is a bit delusional.
He’s got it right but is deluded on low approval ratings and scandals etc...
He’s in the bubble.
It will not be easy.
As Jim Carvel said, “It’s the economy baby”
Well Forida will have 1 million new felons eligible to vote, it will go blue probably forever. Beto damn near won in Texas. Leftists will be more energized than ever and the cheating and fraud will be off the charts. I honestly don’t think Trump has a chance. He won because he ran against the most hated political figure in history.
And they haven’t learned a damn thing about why Trump won.
“...he also could wind up in trouble if the economy slows markedly.”
The major reason the economy might slow markedly is because investors might come to believe that there’s even the slightest realistic chance that a Democrat could win the presidency next year. In which case, markets would start to crumble, and the economy would soon follow.
L8r
And millions of illegals are being rushed across the border and dispersed throughout the US. The Dems will have them voting in 2020 and the GOP will stand around and do nothing effective to stop them.
When Trump goes to battleground states he should play the battle hymn of the republic song it is so American and Presidential.
Well Forida will have 1 million new felons eligible to vote, it will go blue probably forever.
No it won’t, felons are not your most reliable voter, plus not all felons are people robbing convenient stores in dah hood.
A lot of white collar criminals who are there for tax evasion, fraud, etc
If they were so good at it, we would have Hillary Clinton as president
Voter fraud is just an excuse that lazy republicans use because they could not energize the base
When we energize our base, voter fraud is no longer a problem.
I blame Paul Ryan for 2018, that bastard did everything he could to keep the Trump supporter home. Everything
This is what happens when somebody kicks the government off our necks.
They are not a factor when our base is energized
Trump is going into 2020 with a record only previous president’s could dream of
The Mueller crap is old, 2016 is boring and the Dems are running the most crazy people they can find. Who do they have that isn’t crazy or creepy?
Trump won't have a near comatose opponent this time around. They want him out and will field an attractive, young, articulate, business minded candidate for the win.
NAY!! Don’t trust those pos!! Work to get him elected like if he is 20 puts down!!! They are trying to make us comfy while they go door to door harvesting votes!! DON’T BELIEVE THEM!! Don’t get snookered!!
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