Posted on 11/19/2018 7:28:26 AM PST by jmaroneps37
A review of the fundamentals in the November 27th Mississippi Senate runoff shows that Democrat Mike Espy has a big hill to climb; and the road is relatively flat and smooth for Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith.
On Election Day neither candidate received the necessary 50% plus 1 vote to win so there will be a runoff between Hyde-Smith who got 41.5% and Espy who got 40.6%.
Hyde – Smith could not get to 50% plus 1 vote because there was a major third candidate in the race.
That candidate, Chris McDaniel ran as a Republican and drew off 146,000 votes earning him 16.5% of the vote.
McDaniel had his own reasons for running and playing spoiler, but he has now endorsed Hyde-Smith.
Mike Espy’s 40.6% is the best he has done thus far.
In the only post- Election Day survey of likely runoff voters, Espy has lost support while Hyde- Smith has gained and now leads 50/36.
The survey report showed a large 6.1% margin of error (MoE) and 14 points of undecided voters.
This MoE could mean anything from Espy now trails by only 44/42 to him being on his way to a huge beating.
The 8.5% increase in Hyde-Smith's numbers shows that McDaniel's voters are moving toward her side.
Of course the Democrats and the media are saying there is a chance Espy can pull this out which would mean that virtually none of McDaniel’s voters would support Hyde-Smith.
To pull out a win Espy would have to pick up ALL of the undecided vote.
A county by county review of the Election Day results shows that in only seven counties, where 9,000 votes or more were cast, Espy’s vote was larger than the combined vote for Hyde-Smith and McDaniel.
Espy did win handily in Hinds County the largest prize county with 76,000 votes cast; but none of his other counties exceeded 12,000 votes cast.
The combined Republican votes for Hyde–Smith and McDaniel, out- paced Espy in 20 counties with at least 9,000 votes cast including the next five biggest counties where 25,000, 34000, 40,000 45,000 and 51,000 votes were recorded.
Of further assistance to Hyde-Smith, Mississippi does not allow Election Day registration; and voters are required to provide photo ID before voting.
These are extremely important advantages for Hyde-Smith because Mississippi does not permit early voting or no-excuse absentee voting except for those who are 65 and over.
The almost all small county wins for Espy,means Democrats will have to coordinate a door to door pull out in dozens of small rural counties where their voters live considerable distances apart.
Republican volunteers should be able to spot buses from out of state and watch them.
Hyde-Smith’s voters are, generally in all the more heavily populated counties so voters are not as spread out and more easily reached.
Mississippi voting places open at 7 AM and close at 7 PM so there are very few hours for Democrat volunteers to act in the evening when much of Democrat voter fraud often takes place.
Hyde- Smith’s final Get Out The Vote push will see President Donald Trump holding two rallies in Mississippi on Monday November, 26th.
Unlike what happened at his final rallies in Montana and Missouri, when the President asks “Who has already voted?” very few hands will go up.
Closed polls aren’t an obstacle to dems as we have seen in Arizona, California, Florida, Montana and other states. From now on we cannot afford to be off guard during ANY election. The dems have stolen well over 30 elections where the republican was ahead when the polls closed and the votes were counted. It’s ironic how dems complain about voter repression when almost all states have early voting. They have about a month to cast a ballot and then come up with some false story about a racist clerk at the poles who denied them the vote. We need to put some people in jail for voter fraud and let them know that there will be consequences or else this will keep happening.
The vote fraud will continue as long as there are no consequences.
George Soros bought Secretaries of State all over the country for this very purpose.
Some
May be stolen but it’s also because last minute votes and provisional ballots skew dem. The OC seats that switched are a function of demographic change and anger at the loss of the deduction for state income taxes. Looks like the same thing happened in New Jersey. If the republicans ran on restoring the deduction they’d be able to return those areas to the fold.
speaking too soon. Cheaper to try to beat her than Cruz in Texas.
so what do you all think, Espy 60/40 right? Wow!Pretty sharp observation! Mississippi is ready and waiting to elect a Democrat wow who knew it would be THAT easy?
Is this the same Espy that was scandal plagued in Clinton’s time ?
“Some
May be stolen but it’s also because last minute votes and provisional ballots skew dem. The OC seats that switched are a function of demographic change and anger at the loss of the deduction for state income taxes. Looks like the same thing happened in New Jersey. If the republicans ran on restoring the deduction they’d be able to return those areas to the fold.”
With early being a month or more before elections you cannot justify last minute voting on a large scale. It’s voter fraud pure and simple. Everyone of the seat that had a republican ahead at the end of election night that flipped are voter fraud, pure and simple.
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