As the 1980 presidential campaign moves to a close, national polls say the race between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan is too close to call.Reagan’s big lead over Carter from last summer is gone, as the hard-fought battle has tightened over the past three months, following the pattern of presidential contests in years gone by.
As more and more Americans focus on the decision of which lever to pull tomorrow, the polls also say Carter’s hopes may be damaged because many of those who support him may not vote.
The original watershed mark for the final round of polls was the nationally televised debate between Reagan and Carter last Tuesday. But late-breaking developments regarding the Americans held hostage in Iran could make recent poll results quickly obsolete.
The latest ABC News-Louis Harris poll put Reagan at 45 percent and Carter at 40 percent. Independent John Anderson drew 10 percent, one percent named others and four percent were unsure. That poll, conducted Oct. 29-31, [1980] is based on interviews with 2,003 likely voters. Essentially Even.
But a national poll taken by the Gallup Organization for Newsweek magazine said the race was essentially even: Reagan 44; Carter 43; and Anderson seven. This survey was conducted Oct. 29-30 and is based on registered voters weighted for turnout. A poll conducted by the Washington Post Oct. 26-27 put Carter at 42; Reagan at 39; and Anderson at seven among 1,000 registered voters.
While the polls seem to have different results, in fact, the differences are all smaller than the error margin to which all polls are subject. This means that the polls cannot be said to put either man in the solid position as the frontrunner. In addition, the close race spotlights the unique system of picking a president — the election is decided by who wins the most electoral votes, which are awarded state-by-state.
Of course, every election is decided by who actually goes to vote. But the polls this year demonstrate that the issue of turnout is even more critical than ever. For example, among registered voters, the Newsweek poll put the race at Carter 44 percent and Reagan 41 percent. But when the results were weighted to reflect possible turnout, the results were Reagan 44 and Carter 43.
Here we see the same sort of rationalization and excuse-making we see today. Nothing has changed. Same formula. Same story, different decade, different century, different millennium.
I particularly liked the part about how the polls also say Carter’s hopes may be damaged because many of those who support him may not vote. Yeah, Jimmuh would've won except that his voters didn't vote.
Hostages held for close to HALF of this ‘One Term Wonder’s’ Presidency! 444 days!
President Reagan was the very first vote I ever cast; I was 18. I joined the Army because THERE WERE NO JOBS! Inflation levels were INSANE! My folks were paying 22% interest on their Mortgage!
In many ways I DO have Carter to thank for p*ssing me off enough to carve out a great military career and success in the Private Sector, thereafter.
Nah. I’m not giving that Commie moron ANY credit, LOL!
Gee, who would’ve thought REAGAN was colluding with the Russians to interfere with the election?