Posted on 09/27/2018 7:11:40 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
The evidence shows that because of what can be called The Hispanic Shift, the Democrats don't have a Path To 216 and will not retake the House in November.
The polls that show otherwise are faulty because they don’t account for the rapid shift of Hispanics toward Republicans.
We have seen actual results in Texas point unequivocally to the fact that the Democrat Party is losing support from Hispanics.
In a Texas Sates Senate race last week a Republican won a seat held by Democrats for 139 years.
He did so by 6 points after having lost his try for election to the same office in 2016 by 15 points.
That 21 point improvement is the Hispanic Shift.
The district is on the Mexico border and most importantly is 68% Hispanic.
It is therefore not arguable that Hispanics moved from voting Democrat to voting Republican.
In California which is just 29% Republican 44% Democrat but also 39% Hispanic, a Probolsky Poll released last week found the Democrat candidate for governor up 44/39.
The internals of the poll show that Hispanics support the Democrat 35.5% to 34.5% for the Republican with a huge 30% undecided.
These people are not actually “undecided.”
On paper this race should have the Democrat up by the same 55/34 that Probolsky found in July.
What’s the difference?
One could argue there are lots of local California reasons for some of this shift but not a 21 point shift.
Those who choose to call several Congressional seats held by Republicans either tossups or Democrat pickups are using faulty turnout assumptions.
If this data means nothing to you, stop reading and check out the Democrat Underground where you can read all the scary “predictions” you want.
There are three Republican held seats in California that the “experts” are calling tossups.
In California 10, the open primary was won by the Republican incumbent and combined with other Republicans the GOP got 52% of the vote. In winning, the Republican incumbent got double the votes that the second place Democrat got.
This district is 44% Hispanic.
It is only different than the rest of California in that it is 5% more Hispanic.
Donald Trump lost this district by just 5 points which is a testament to the determination of Republicans to vote even knowing Trump had no chance to win in their state and were told he had only a 5% chance of winning the national election.
Calling this district a tossup is not supportable.
In California 45, the open primary was won by the incumbent Republican with more than double the vote the second place Democrat got. Counting all candidates the Republicans got 51.6% of the vote.
Donald Trump lost this district as well by just 5 points which is a testament to the determination of Republicans to vote even knowing Trump had no chance to win in their state and were told he had only a 5% chance of winning the national election.
The district is 20% Hispanic.
Calling this district a tossup is not supportable.
In California 48, in the open primary won by the incumbent Republican, all Republican candidates got 53% of the vote.
Donald Trump lost this district as well by just 1 1/2 points which is a testament to the determination of Republicans to vote even knowing Trump had no chance to win in their state and were told he had only a 5% chance of winning the national election.
The district is 20% Hispanic.
Calling this district a tossup is not supportable.
In a future post I will examine other “tossups” and Democrat pick ups; but there are two in other states that need to be addressed.
In Florida 27 is a perfect example of the “Hispanic shift” changing the projection of who will win.
Hillary Clinton won this district by 20 points.
Florida 27 along with a few other downstate Florida districts, was one of the only bright spots for Clinton; and it kept her thinking she was going to win Florida up to about 10 PM on Election Night.
Precisely BECAUSE it is 72% Hispanic and won by 20 points by Hillary Clinton, the “experts” made this district a Democrat pick up immediately.
Now that’s all over.
Now this is a “leans Republican” district.
So what is the difference?
The “Hispanic shift” is the difference.
Sure these are Hispanics that voted Republican for the incumbent for years; but 72% is 72%.
In 2016 the abandoned Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Like other Hispanics across the nation they like what Donald Trump is doing for them and they want it to continue.
In this year of a “blue wave” by accident the Democrat should still be the hands down favorite.
This is not to say that every district named as a tossup by the “experts” is wrong.
It is to say that in enough of them there is little evidence to support making a sufficient number of “tossups, “tossups.”
The final entry in this post is in Kansas.
In Kansas 2, another “tossup” the incumbent Republican won election in 2016 by 10 points and Donald Trump won the district by 18 points.
This is Kansas.
Maybe the Democrats can win in Kansas 3 where there are factors that point to an upset possibility; maybe not.
Nevertheless, I don’t see Kansas 2 going blue.
More to come.
From your words to the ballot box .... may our amigo’s join us.
Thank you for this analysis. It seems sound.
San Francisco voted 9 percent for Trump! Maybe we’ll do better in 2020.
I’ve talked about this for years. The Democrats aren’t yearning for “Hispanics”, they’re yearning for non-Americans. Once people feel attached to and get invested in the country, Democrat policies make less and less sense to them.
If black and Latino voters had stayed stagnant, you would have a path existing with the old Democratic strategy (say of 2012). But there’s likely 25-percent of blacks often mentioned now flipping to the GOP, and in regions of Cal, Tex, etc....there’s talk that one-third of Latino votes might go GOP in this November election. It would be a mild shock.
I think as the dust settles....no gains/losses in the House, and maybe five to six GOP guys sitting in Democratic Senate seats. If this occurs, then the whole strategy kept in play by the Democrats is now screwed up and you’d have to flush it and change in a radical way.
The word “Hispanic” is another biased leftist term.
Its a very broad group for which we strangely accept a very narrow, highly politicized leftist term.
Exactly....the term is worthless.
Good analysis.
“Note: I am a retired paid political consultant specializing in opposition research. I have examined the available data and don’t see a “path to 216” for the Democrats.”
I’ll give them the 216. Republicans would still have 219. If my math is correct that is a Republican majority in the house.
I have lived in KS2 since 1990. Both KS2 and KS3 were Democrat back then. Eastern Kansas Republicans aren’t very conservative. Their ancestors were imported from Massachusetts and Connecticut to support the Free Staters against the Missouri Democrats who crossed the Missouri River for Election Day.
In Lawrence, the favorite watering hole is Free State Brewery on Massachusetts St. Enough said.
So this is why Kansas 2 voted for Trump by 18 and the Republican incumbent by 10 points?
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