Democrat defeat in the Senate is beginning to take shape with Minnesota and New Jersey slipping away

The Senate Seats now held by Democrats Tina Smith of Minnesota and Bob Menendez of New Jersey are quickly slipping away from both of them.

In late spring the first signs that voters in New Jersey had had enough of crooked Democrats appeared when a survey with bizarre numbers was released. The poll showed Menendez ahead just 28/24 with an astounding 46% undecided.

This said lots of things about the mood of the voters in New Jersey and none of them were good for Menendez.

As a two-term incumbent from a very blue state he should not be having any trouble in his reelection; but he is.

The Republican in the race, Bob Hugin is a self-financed very aggressive candidate who is saying all the right things to win a statewide race in New Jersey.

The undecided voters have either broken for him 18/14 to make a real race of this election at 42/42 or have stopped talking to pollsters.

Given that Menendez is the latest crooked New Jersey Democrat to walk away from his crimes, he is clearly not being given the usual pass from voters.

As a deep blue state two term Democrat incumbent mired at 42% support in mid-August, Menendez is mortally wounded and will lose.

In Minnesota the script is similar. The Democrat is the unelected holder of a U S Senate seat she was gifted with by a Democrat establishment that is losing its grip on her state.

Senator Tina Smith was given the seat vacated by the lecherous Al Franken, whom many Minnesotans remember stole his seat from Republican Norm Coleman by endless recounts taking about six months to settle.

It ended when the Democrats finally “found” enough votes in the trunk of an old Chevy to claim victory and run.

As expected, in the first poll of this race Smith was way ahead at 49/35 over her Republican challenger Karin Housley.

Nevertheless, it is the follow up poll that makes this a probable loss for Smith.

The most recent survey from a few days ago shows Housley has closed up and pulled down Smith.

These polls were taken just two weeks apart. The very large percentage of “undecided” voters is a significantly good sign for that Housley.

By mid-August a Democrat incumbent, even if appointed, should be in control in Minnesota which has voted Republican on only rare occasions in the last 70 years.

Smith’s problem is that she is “just another Democrat,” and as I have pointed out, this is not going to be a good year for “just another Democrat[s].”

In 2016 Donald Trump lost Minnesota by 1.8% in a four-way race that included not only the eventual winner Hillary Clinton, but Gary Johnson the Libertarian and Evan McMullin the sabatour sent out by Mitt Romney to try to destroy Trump.

Together Johnson and McMullin pulled down 5.8% of the vote so it is not a stretch to believe that had either one not been in the race Trump would have won.

For a state that came very close to voting for Trump, Smith has made some very seriously bad “just another Democrat” votes.

She voted against the Trump Tax cuts; against immigration reform, and against confirming Judge Neil Gorsuch.

There are already two Minnesota Congressional Districts now held by Democrats that even the New York Times has reluctantly admitted will flip to Republican control.

Both were won by Trump by 15 points. Republican enthusiasm for “getting over the top this time” is very high.

The combination of Catholics, who voted 52/45 for Trump, and Evangelicals who voted nearly 80/20 for Trump, will represent 41% of the electorate.

Smith’s vote against Gorsuch combined with her coming vote against Kavananugh will spell trouble for her.

Both groups want Judge Kavanaugh confirmed and are willing to defeat Smith to insure a future Republican controlled Senate that will confirm pro-life judges.

More than this, voting against Trump’s economic plans and for sanctuary cities will hang like a millstone around Smith’s neck.

The 35 Senate seats up for grabs in NOV:

(14) Easy Dem wins: CA-Feinstein, CT-Murphy, DE-Carper, HI-Hirono, ME-King (I), MD-Cardin, MA-Warren (Fauxcahontas), MN1-Klobuchar, NY-Gillibrand, WA-Cantwell, VT-Sanders (I), NM-Heinrich, RI-Whitehouse and VA-Kaine (VP candidate)

(5) Easy GOP wins: MS1-Wicker, MS2-Hyde-Smith, NE-Fischer, UT-Romney (yes, of MASS), WY-Barrasso

Now for the more interesting races, and how those states voted for Trump:

(3) The close Trump win states, but likely DEM wins...
MI (Trump +0.3): Stabenow (D) currently polling at +18
PA (Trump +0.7): Casey (D) +17
WI (Trump +0.8): Baldwin (D) +15 (yet WI re-elected their other Senator, Ron Johnson (R), the Anti-Baldwin, in 2016 at +5?????... Schizophrenic State)

(1) SHOULD be in play but ain't...
OH (Trump +8): Brown (D) +13

That's 18 DEM wins to 5 for the GOP... but none change their current Party. It's still +1 GOP...
Now... here's the 12 races where the action really takes place (current GOP seat in red)...

(3) The possibly in play, but weren't expected to be...
NJ (Hillary +14): Menendez (D), was +21 in JUN, now just +2!!!
MN2 (Hillary +1.5): Smith (D) was +14 in JUN, now just +4!
TEX (Trump +9): Cruz (R) +6 (the fact that TEXAS is this close gets Dems excited... but that 9% = 813,000 votes to overcome)

(6) The WTH????? How are these even close??? How are these DEM seats???
IN (Trump +19): Donnelly (D) tossup trending GOP?
MO (Trump +19): McCaskill (D) tossup trending GOP?
MT (Trump +21): Tester (D) +3
TN (Trump +26): (open) tossup trending GOP?
ND (Trump +35): Heitkamp (D) tossup trending GOP?
WV (Trump +42): Manchin (D) +10

(3) And the other close races that everyone is focused on:
NV (Hillary +2): tossup (bouncing both ways)
FL (Trump +1.2): Scott (R) +3
AZ (Trump +3): Sinema (D) +4 (a new RINO or a DEM pickup... still a loss either way, really. Replacing Flake with a Trumper could have been a big win.)

Of those final 12, the GOP currently holds 4 (AZ, NV, TN, and TX). The Dems currently hold the other 8. Trump won 9 of those states. Hillary won 3 (MN, NJ, NV).

If the 7 states that went for Trump by 9+ points all go to the GOP, then the GOP will gain at least +1 in NOV, no matter what the other 5 states do. (The GOP needs about a +4 to become RINO-proof, however.)

Picking up NJ (Hillary +14) would be stunning.

Ditching Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio was my big pipe dream for NOV (Trump +8!), but that isn't looking likely.

The 35 Senate seats up for grabs in NOV:
(14) Easy Dem wins: CA-Feinstein, CT-Murphy, DE-Carper, HI-Hirono, ME-King (I), MD-Cardin, MA-Warren (Fauxcahontas), MN1-Klobuchar, NY-Gillibrand, WA-Cantwell, VT-Sanders (I), NM-Heinrich, RI-Whitehouse and VA-Kaine (VP candidate)
(5) Easy GOP wins: MS1-Wicker, MS2-Hyde-Smith, NE-Fischer, UT-Romney (yes, of MASS), WY-Barrasso

Now for the more interesting races, and how those states voted for Trump:

(1) SHOULD be in play but ain’t...
OH (Trump +8): Brown (D) +13

That’s 18 DEM wins to 5 for the GOP... but none change their current Party. It’s still +1 GOP...
Now... here’s the 12 races where the action really takes place (current GOP seat in red)...

(3) The possibly in play, but weren’t expected to be...
NJ (Hillary +14): Menendez (D), was +21 in JUN, now just +2!!!
MN2 (Hillary +1.5): Smith (D) was +14 in JUN, now just +4!
TEX (Trump +9): Cruz (R) +6 (the fact that TEXAS is this close gets Dems excited... but that 9% = 813,000 votes to overcome)

(6) The WTH????? How are these even close??? How are these DEM seats???
IN (Trump +19): Donnelly (D) tossup trending GOP?
MO (Trump +19): McCaskill (D) tossup trending GOP?
MT (Trump +21): Tester (D) +3
TN (Trump +26): (open) tossup trending GOP?
ND (Trump +35): Heitkamp (D) tossup trending GOP?
WV (Trump +42): Manchin (D) +10
(3) And the other close races that everyone is focused on:
NV (Hillary +2): tossup (bouncing both ways)
FL (Trump +1.2): Scott (R) +3
AZ (Trump +3): Sinema (D) +4 (a new RINO or a DEM pickup... still a loss either way, really. Replacing Flake with a Trumper could have been a big win.)

Of those final 12, the GOP currently holds 4 (AZ, NV, TN, and TX). The Dems currently hold the other 8. Trump won 9 of those states. Hillary won 3 (MN, NJ, NV).

Picking up NJ (Hillary +14) would be stunning.

Ditching Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio was my big pipe dream for NOV (Trump +8!), but that isn’t looking likely.

And don’t forget Hillary Clinton is up by 12 points with a 95% chance of winning.

Scare yourself with fake polls if you want but that’s all they are.

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