Posted on 08/03/2018 7:57:52 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Since demographic survey data indicating disaster for Senate Democrats is coming almost daily; and contradictory “polls” are coming in just as fast, a look at voter fundamentals is in order.
I stand by my prediction of 11 Democrat seats being picked up by Republicans in November.
So far here is where we stand. November’s Democrat sure losers are:
Nelson Fla; Donnelly Indiana; McCaskill Missouri; Tester Montana; Heitkamp North Dakota and Manchin West Virginia.
I have explained why they are going to lose before and nothing has improved for them. To the contrary things have gotten worse for each of these Democrats because the economy is booming and voters who supported Donald Trump on his promises have seen those promises come true.
Moving toward defeat in November:
Sherrod Brown Ohio; he is up 6 with a 90% name recognition versus a Republican with a 35% name recognition in a now very solid Republican state.
Bob Menendez New Jersey; he has fallen into a tie with a well-financed aggressive Republican who is saying everything right to make New Jersey feel right about throwing out a man they know is a crook.
Races worth watching:
Keep in mind that the Democrat senators in this list are no different than those who are already done for This is because of Democrat lock step voting and in some cases being in states adjacent to losing states so they will be facing voters with the same demographic makeup.
The watch list is Wisconsin; Pennsylvania; New Mexico; and Virginia.
All the fundamentals point the way to Victory for Senate Republicans in November.
The November Mid-term elections will be the first of Donald Trump’s three re-elections because he will make it about him and win.
The Chicago Sun Tribune summed up the power of Donald Trump’s coattails by saying, “I left the hall thinking: Donald Trump is going to be re-elected in 2020. The Democrats don’t have anyone who can touch him. Bank on it. Don’t hate me for being the one to tell you.”
This is absolutely true and with Trump intending to campaign 6 and 7 days a week for the last two months the obvious conclusion is the Democrats don’t have anyone in the House or the Senate who “can touch him,” either.
In 2016 a record 84% of White Evangelicals voted and a very large number of them voted for Trump. They watched videos in their churches and were bused to the polls.
They will vote for Trump's endorsed candidates in 2018 because what these voters wanted they got in Judge Gorsuch and the nomination of Judge Kavanaugh. They like what they see.
Does anyone really believe the Evangelicals will not stream to the polls in even larger numbers to vote for Republicans Trump endorses?
Trump has successfully reached out to Black and Hispanic voters. His approval numbers with Blacks runs from 16% to 29% (yesterday’s Rasmussen) plus even the usually faked Survey Monkey consistently report Blacks now self-identify as Democrats at just 56%.
Combined with the fact that Black voter participation in 2016 was down in North Carolina Pennsylvania and Michigan, this spells very big problems for Democrats.
Hispanic approval of Trump is now at a point where it is a “wash.” In many states it is not big enough to help but too small to hurt his candidates.
The Republican National Committee has huge amounts of cash ($213 million at last count a month ago) and is using it to fund field offices in 27 states. That means that they have their own list of vulnerable Democrats.
Those field offices are already run by 500 paid workers who are being supported by 15,000 registered volunteers.
By contrast when Trump won in 2016 he had just 5,000 registered volunteers.
When Trump asks for more volunteers it will blow the doors off Republican campaign headquarters across the country.
2016 exit polls showed 93% of Trump’s voters agreed America was on the wrong track. Many of them were White working class men without college degrees.
White men without college degrees voted for Trump 72/23. That’s an astounding 49-points! It Broke Ronald Reagan’s record of winning these voters by 11 points in 1980.
These voters are Trump’s hidden supporters and the “political experts” know that. They didn’t answer pollsters then and they are not answering them now. They are too busy working.
As August unfolds there will be more data to consider and more predictions to make.
With our without Trump, Republicans will gain in the Senate.... anyone who has a few neurons firing and knows ANYTHING about US politics should have been telling you that for years now...
The DEMS never had ANY shot at taking the Senate this fall... EVER.
The Dems are defending 24 seats this fall, Republicans are defending 9.. and more than a few of those Dem seats are in traditionally red, or states that have been trending more red ever cycle for decades.
My personal projection is R gain of 6 or more this fall in the senate.
If you want to know who’s likely going to be going by by with a D by their name this fall, look at the D’s who voted for Gorsuch and those that will almost certainly vote for Kavanaugh this fall.
McCaskill, Donnelly, Heitkamp, Manchin, Nelson and Tester are the most likely D’s to be gone...
The Senate was NEVER, EVER in play.. anyone telling you that is LYING to you, flat out, bald face, lying.
The only question in the Senate is simply how many seats will the GOP gain.
The House on the other hand is a different story, but the SENATE has NEVER been vulnerable.
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