Posted on 07/26/2018 8:01:59 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Wrong Way Larry Sabato is predicting a big Election Night for Democrats. What he is doing amounts to elder abuse by teasing geriatric Democrats with dreams of winning the House back.
In the political prediction business, you are only as good as your last predictions; so, let’s look at how Wrong Way Larry Sabato did in 2016.
Wrong Way Larry confidently predicted Hillary Clinton would win 322 Electoral College votes to Donald J. Trump’s 232 EC votes. When real votes were counted Trump won with 306 EC votes to Hillary Clinton’s poor showing of 216 such votes.
When you consider that 162 of Clinton's ECvs came from just 8 states she was a clear and easy to recognize failure waiting for the trash man to pick her up.
Of course, Wrong Way Larry couldn’t see this because, as he said afterward he completely missed what was going on.
He also said he would do better at listening to voters. Then as now, Wrong Way Larry only listens to the voters who say what he wants to hear.
This means Wrong Way was wrong on the most important metric of the presidential election by a factor of 33%. Wrong Way Larry was very wrong.
Wrong Way Larry confidently predicted Democrats would win 6 Senate seats from Republicans and re-take control of a 50/50 chamber via “Vice President Tim Kaine’s” tie breaker votes. The Democrats won 2 Republican seats. Wrong Way was wrong again.
Wrong Way Larry’s Crystal Ball wasn’t very clear on what would happen in the House either. He confidently predicted Democrats would pick up 13 Republican held seats and they won 8. He was wrong by a factor of 39%.
Larry even went the Wrong Way on the number of Republican governors 2016 voters would elect. Wrong Way said 31 and it was 33.
Interestingly, when a Democrat pollster talks about who will win a governorship in a given state the result only seems to mean something when the winner is a Democrat, right Larry? How about the power of a governor’s office, Wrong Way Larry?
Wrong Way Larry Sabato knows who to suck up to. He knows the Venezuelan Socialists that have control of the Democrat Party couldn’t care less about him or his “predictions.”
So, Larry has decided to run to the elderly White wing of the Democrat Party because he knows if they hire him as their pollster at least they will pay his invoices.
With this in mind, Larry the Old White Media and other chronically wrong “pollsters” have developed a quick psy-ops strike to counter the awful news Democrats suffered this week from Gallup’s latest survey.
Gallup, whose findings just about mirrored those presented recently by the Harvard Harris Poll and to a lesser degree a fresh Rasmussen Poll, clearly said the things Democrats think are “issues” aren’t "issues" and mean nothing to average voters especially Trump voters who have shown no inclination to turn away from him.
All of these surveys said very clearly that the Democrats stand for nothing that American voters want to see in their lives.
Remember when James Carville coined the phrase “It’s The Economy Stupid?” Apparently, that only means something to Wrong Way Larry when a Democrat is saying it. Trump lets the numbers say this and voters are listening.
Whether responding to the economy in an “either up or down” reaction as in the Harvard Harris poll where voters said they were pleased with the economy by a margin of 69/31; or responding in an individual way by citing what problems they see in America today as in the Gallup poll where just 14% saw a problem with the economy, voters love Trump’s economy.
Moreover, in the Rasmussen Poll 74% picked capitalism over socialism.
How do we know the Democrats are scared to death by these findings? Their hastily released empty slogan “For The People,” stolen from a Florida ambulance chasing Democrat law firm, and their “economic plan” which is basically Donald Trump’s plan with his name crossed out tell us so.
Wrong Way Larry wants to /needs to come to the rescue.
To do this, he and the media settled on what was supposed to shock us into despair. Wrong Way Larry re-hashed his flimsily supported “toss up” list of House races and restated it, only instead of being so smug and cock sure as he was in the spring, Wrong Way says his prediction of a Democrat House is “soft.”
This is actually a walk- back but the desperate media ran with it to try to scare us with bogus headlines.
Scaring Trump supporters is not an easy thing. Ask CNN which had to search high and low to find a single “self- proclaimed” Trump voter who said she regretted her vote.
Latest surveys show Trump has the support of 88% of Republicans which of course does not include recovering Republicans who have left the GOP to be independent voters.
Wrong Way Larry has said, “You have to add ten points to Trump’s approval numbers.” Wrong Way said this even before Trump’s tremendous coattail power emerged.
The results of four recent Republican primaries make this case. Wrong Way Larry Sabato won’t touch this data.
In Alabama Martha Roby who vowed not to even vote for Trump in 2016 was forced into a runoff to secure her re-nomination for Congress. She got 39% to Bobby Bright’s 28% in the first round.
Bright made an issue of her not voting for Trump and could have maybe won the nomination which in Alabama’s CD 2 means certain victory in November.
Putting his agenda over his personal feelings, Trump endorsed Roby who won her runoff 67/33 meaning Trump’s endorsement meant a huge swing in her favor.
In NY CD 11, incumbent Dan Donovan was down 10 points in two polls just 17 days before his primary with former Congressman Mike Grimm. Three days later Trump endorsed Donovan who went on to win by 18 points, a 28-point swing from a Trump endorsement.
In Florida’s Republican primary for governor Adam Putnam had held at least a 12-point lead (a few polls had it much bigger) over Congressman Ron De Santis. Then Donald Trump endorsed De Santis.
Now De Santis is up 12 points and considered the big favorite. This was a 24 point turn around after Trump stepped in.
Tuesday there was a runoff for the Republican governor nomination in Georgia between Brian Kemp Secretary of State and Lt. Governor Casey Cagle.
Just last week Cagle led by 13 points. He had Oliver North of the NRA in to campaign with him three times. He had the endorsement of the entire Republican establishment in Georgia.
Cagle called the White House and begged Trump for his endorsement. Trump endorsed Kemp who won by 40 points completing a stunning 53 point turn around from another Trump endorsement.
Finally, there is the organization and money factor Wrong Way Larry Sabato seems to just brush aside.
Nevertheless, here’s what he is not telling us: The RNC, which has raised an amazing $213 million already has 500 paid campaign staff spread across 27 states (far more than what Wrong Way’s "toss ups" would indicate) AND those 500 paid staff already have 15,000 volunteers which is THREE TIMES what Trump himself had in 2016.
When Trump asks for more volunteers Republican campaign headquarters across the country will overflow with helping hands.
Note to Wrong Way Larry: If you who has said “You have to add 10 points to Trump’s approval numbers” want to disregard the Trump factor make sure you cash the Old White Geriatric Democrats’ checks before they retire to The Shady Rest Old Folks Home and remember how wrong you have been lately.
Let them think they are winning, that is how we win
Remember when they had Texas Blue?
Georgia was suppose to be blue as well
she was going to easily win Wisconsin and Michigan as well.
Iowa was suppose to be blue as well
That blue wave will be a yellow puddle.....
From what I’ve been reading lately, ol’ Larry is swerving to the left. Bye, Larr!
Larry had a period about a decade ago where he could do the numbers and be more correct than wrong. Over the past four years....less so. I think part of the problem is that he thinks more independents lean Democrat in various districts/states. That ‘lean’ is imaginary, at best.
Larry spent 2016 listening to fellow “experts.” But it’s a safe bet he has done exactly the same thing this year and will repeat in 2020.
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