Small Arms Survey Shows U.S. with 40% of Firearms

Gun Watch ^ | 24 June, 2018 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

Image from Small Arms Review

According to the Small Arms Survey, world wide private firearms ownership has increased from about 650 million in 2006 to 857 million at the end of 2017. That is a 32% increase over the eleven year period, or 207 million firearms. The estimate for the United States increased from 270 million in to 393.3 million, a 46 percent increase or 123.3 million firearms, over the same period. The United States accounted for 60 percent of the total global increase.

From smallarmssurvey.org:

Uncertainty about any firearms data requires systematic estimation that relies on a broad spectrum of sources and makes approximation unavoidable. The Small Arms Survey’s estimates of civilian firearms holdings use data gathered from multiple sources. However, with much of civilian ownership concealed or hard to identify, gun ownership numbers can only approximate reality. Using data from several different sources, at the end of 2017 there were approximately 857 million civilian-held firearms in the world’s 230 countries and territories. Civilian firearms registration data was available for 133 countries and territories. Survey results were used to help establish total gun civilian holdings in 56 countries. The new figure is 32 percent higher than the previous estimate from 2006, when the Small Arms Survey estimated there were approximately 650 million civilian-held firearms. Virtually all countries show higher numbers, although national ownership rates vary widely, reflecting factors such as national legislation, a country’s gun culture, historical and other factors. While some of the increase reflects improved data and research methods, much is due to actual growth of civilian ownership.

While the United States accounted for 60 percent of the total global increase, nearly all countries experienced an increase in firearms ownership. The United States was estimated to have 41.5% of privately owned firearms in the world in 2006.  At the end of 2017, the Small Arms Survey estimated the U.S.A. had 46% of privately owned firearms in the world.

My estimation of the private firearms stock in the United States is a bit higher than that of the Small Arms Survey. I use the method first used by Newton and Zimring, then by Gary Kleck in "Point Blank"

Using that method, there were 295 million private firearms in the United States in 2006. The Small Arms Survey estimates 270 million, or 92% of my calculated figure. At the end of 2017, using Kleck's methodology, there would be 418 million firearms (2017 numbers estimated from NICS checks).  The Small Arms Survey estamate is now 94% of what I calculated.

The BATFE numbers, plus the estimation for 2017 from NICS, shows an increase of 123 million firearms added to the private stock over the period. The Small Arms Survey shows 123.3 million added over the same period, virtually an identical increase. Thus, the only difference is in the estimation of the private stock in 2006.

Firearm numbers increase with increasing prosperity. Firearms are a highly desired manufactured good. It is unexceptional that as societies become more prosperous, the number of private firearms increases.

No one knows how many guns are added to the stock by manufacture by individuals, either as hobbyists or for the unregulated market, or in small, unregulated shops. Such guns can make up a significant number. At one point, 20% of the guns confiscated in Washington, D.C., were of this type.

No one knows how many guns are removed from the private stock by destruction, wear, and loss. A gun lost in a body of water usually becomes inoperable. Some guns are buried and forgotten. Guns are extremely durable items, capable of lasting for hundreds of years.

Very few guns are worn out by firing. Only a tiny number of firearm owners shoot more than a few hundred rounds of ammunition per gun per year.  There are likely 80-100 million .22 rimfire firearms in the United States. The total .22 rimfire production and importation of ammunition is about 5 billion rounds per year, or an average of 63 rounds per firearm, for the least expensive cartridge. Many hobbyist shoot far more, but the vast majority do not. Enthusiasts who shoot more often divide their shooting between multiple guns, and rigorously care for them.


Unregulated importation and exports are unknown. Guns that originally were procured by the U.S. military, which then are transfered to private citizens, are not counted as additions in the BATFE totals.

As all these numbers are unknown, they are assumed to cancel each other out.

The estimation is exactly that, an estimation.


©2018 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

[LumberJack53213]

I really need to buy two more ARs before the prices jump again

[Big Red Badger]

I Like Money.

[ScottinVA]

40% — a good start.

[Blueflag]

It’s all good as along as we have 60% of the ammunition and spare parts ...

[Blueflag]

The military members are also ‘civilians’ to an extent.

Some of the Agency types, maybe not so much.

There are asymmetrical methods to defeat sophisticated hardware and technologies.

[PROCON]

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More 2nd Amendment related articles on FR's Bang List.

[TADSLOS]

Heartwarming.

[marktwain]

Are we confused, yet? ;-)

---

I am not. 40% of all small arms in the world.

46% of all privately owned firearms in the world.

There is a difference.

[G Larry]

I figure about 1500 rds/year.

If I take special training, add another 700 rds.

[upchuck]

The United States accounted for 60 percent of the total global increase.

And that is why the 2A is so important.

Thanks for the ping Procon.

[mylife]

“Very few guns are worn out from firing them” I have a Russian Rifle made in 1897, That means it was produced during the reign of Czar Nicholas, before communism.

It went through the revolution, the 1st world war, the winter war, the 2nd world war... God only knows how many wars.

I found it in Tx for $100

Its rifling is still strong but frosted due to the corrosive ammo

I have a Rockola M1 carbine that needs a new barrel, I found it in Tx for $300

[mylife]

Tell her its for her its for her gold and jewelry...

[dangerdoc]

I could use freeper advice, I’ve never personally owned an AR for various reasons. I’m wanting a plinking rifle, was originally going to buy a 10mm carbine as I could supply ammo for years out of my stash of components. I’ll probably never reload rifle ammo but I could easily aquire a few thousand .223 rounds to squirrel away.

An AR looks like it might be fun but Ruger is supposed to be releasing camp carbine in 10mm that will take my Glock magazines. Decisions, decisions. But I’m willing to do my part to get to 50 percent.

[mylife]

By my estimates even 25% of rabid left wingers are armed.

They maybe nutzo left wingers but they are armed.

[Deplorable American1776]

David AttentionHogg is very upset, me I’d love it at 75% all Deplorables with guns...

[Deplorable American1776]

Love it...I see most of the trademarks of the guns, but the i I don't know.

Anyone want a bumper sticker? Liberals will be mad...Good...

[Deplorable American1776]

Connecticut might surprise in November...I think they are going to #MCGA...

[familyop]

Thanks!

[schurmann]

” “A rifle behind every blade of grass” ‘ [circlecity, post 4]

“Considering the majority of civilian owned guns, which are obviously of less than comparable sophistication vs those weapons the military has, that “estimation” significance is grossly overstated.” [DaveA37, post 8]

“Ok, but I fail to see your point. Can you elaborate?” [central_va, post 11]

Posts by circlecity and central_va allude to the belief - widely held by American gun enthusiasts and Second Amendment supporters - that the high rate of gun ownership among US citizens will prevent takeover of the country by any military force, foreign or domestic.

DaveA37’s post questions this, arguing that the nature and capabilities of modern military armaments degrade any effectiveness to be found in large masses of civilians bearing very light firearms.

The belief’s more of a conceit. It’s not supported by any historical case. The most succinct summary of available evidence can be found in _Winston’s War: Churchill, 1940-1945_ by Max Hastings (Vintage: 2011; ISBN-10: 0307388719; ISBN-13: 978-0307388711). After examining the various resistance movements in the nations occupied by Nazi Germany during World War Two, author Hastings concluded that they accomplished very little against German units - no matter how important they were in keeping up morale among occupied populations, or reviving national self-respect after the German surrender.

Many Americans attribute success in the American War of Independence to the existence of an armed populace; national defense was based on this “militia are better” notion for many years after 1783. But the concept was invalidated soon after: the War of 1812 came as a rude shock. Something more substantive was needed, beyond townspeople and farmers toting muskets in the ranks of hurriedly-raised militia. Professionalization and better armaments were indispensable. John R Elting’s _Amateurs, To Arms!: A Military History Of The War Of 1812_ (Da Capo, 1995; ISBN-10: 0306806533; ISBN-13: 978-0306806537).

It’s not merely weaponry. A regular military unit will be organized, trained, supplied, cohesive, and motivated. These attributes can improve its changes against a unit - even a larger one - not up to snuff in said areas. Average citizens rarely have the time, resources, or knowledge to reach such a level.

[mad_as_he$$]

It took 130,000 US troops to suppress about 10,000 insurgents in Iraq. A country about the size of Kalifornia.

Also, there is a large contingent of former military in the civilian population many with years of combat experience. IMHO the German/Europe comparison in WW2 does not hold up.