Posted on 02/27/2018 6:43:24 AM PST by HamiltonJay
As a resident in the district holding a special election in PA in a few weeks, I am seeing a lot of activity, which is good. Clearly the polling must be doing fairly well for Lamb, I believe the last I saw was anywhere from 3-6 points behind the Republican....
There are plenty of ads being run by both sides... Both sides are canvassing. Democrats without question are more motivated, signage polling every democrat seems to have a lamb sign.
Cannot accuse the R side of being disengaged, they are fighting. However in all the ads, and things they are running there is something they are MISSING... and I think its very important.
Lamb is running conservative, he must to win the district, however, I have little doubt once in DC if elected he will just vote the party line, only deviating when they know they have enough votes and don't need him.
The general strategy the R have been using is to tie Lamb to Pelosi, and Saccone to traditional republican stands, lower taxes, stronger military, etc etc. Honestly its a fairly standard campaign on both sides.
What I haven't seen or heard much of is TRUMP, not from Lamb and not from Saccone. At least not in their ad campaigns.... Saccone has used Nancy's CRUMBS comments and tied Lamb to them... but I haven't heard either side mention Trump much, if at all.
This is a largely Republican district, and Lamb has not once that I know of tried the Saccone is a Trump rubber stamp type of attack... Saccone and the R's have been all over Lamb is a Pelosi rubber stamp... and I am sure it tests well.
What I am not seeing, is Saccone advertising, by all action committees and his direct campaign, stating he is with Trump, he will help MAGA... They are saying Lamb is with Pelosi and they are against you... but they aren't, I think, advocating hard enough that he will stand with Trump's MAGA agenda.
I think Lamb is avoiding Trump's name because he knows it won't help his cause and motivate the Republicans and MAGA voters turn out, and he needs low turnout to have any chance at winning... But I don't understand why the R side is NOT going pro Trump pro MAGA... I don't think you get the MAGA voter to show up, if you don't offer this positive affirmation. Saying the other guy is against it, is not the same as offering STRONG PRO BY NAME FOR.
My assumption is the GOPe and their various Minions still can't bring themselves to understand where the electorate is.
If Saccone does lose, I believe this may be why. R's must motivate their base and the MAGA I's to show up!!! I don't see how you do that without embracing MAGA and TRUMP....
Should the R lose, and they should not, but should they, the lesson to me has to be EMBRACE TRUMP AND MAGA you IDIOTS... Stop playing GOPe game plans from 2012.
With that said, R's should win.... If they lose it won't be because they didn't engage or work, but that they didn't do what they needed to get their voters to turn out... Which clearly isn't effort at least in this race, but message.
If Saccone doesn't win by 5+ R's really really need to revisit their messaging.
Well here in Texas the RNC is no where to be found!! We are about to lose our state to the globalist commie rats!! Cruz reelection is NOT certained!! O’Rourke is killing him in advertising and grassroots!! I fear we are about to lose state seats AND Cruz’s senate seat!
It’s a long way till November. 252 days, to be exact. Eight months and ten days.
This race reminds me of the 1991 Harris Wofford v Dick Thornburgh special election. The result of this one is important.
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE |
Saccone (R)
|
Lamb (D)
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GravisGravis | 2/13 - 2/15 | 602 LV | 4.2 | 46 | 40 | Saccone +6 |
| MonmouthMonmouth | 2/12 - 2/14 | 320 LV | 5.5 | 49 | 46 | Saccone +3 |
| GravisGravis | 1/3 - 1/5 | 513 LV | 4.3 | 46 | 34 | Saccone +12 |
But we have very crucial state seats coming up for reelection...and some will flip..SOROS is involved in those races! As of now the state seats are more important if we want to keep sanctuary cities and gun control out of Texas!!!
Cruz harmed himself last election cycle with a lot of what he did... I personally don’t think Cruz will lose, BUT, if he does, I believe his actions during the primaries will be a big part of why.
I
Oh no that’s where you are wrong!! He has great appeal all across our state!! He is going to give Cruz a run for his money!! Don’t under estimate Beto and the soros money behind his election!
The issue with low turn out house races that flip traditional districts.... 2 years later during presidential elections they generally flip back to their traditional party.
Low turnout and motivation is the reason you get mid term flips. The opposing party is motivated the party in power, not so much.
The R’s REALLY need to make people grasp its a referendum on MAGA for the mid terms..... The D’s are going to show up en masse just because they hate Trump. The MAGA voters who showed up to elect Trump will not show up for a traditional boring election.. if they don’t see it as the AGENDA on the line... they are likely to stay home.
I remember during the 2016 primary, it was very difficult to ascertain which delegates would be for Trump at the convention - even if their district voted Trump in the primary.
Trump and Pence have both endorsed your candidate.
I suspect a lot of these politicians do not realize how popular Trump remains WITH HIS VOTERS versus generic polls. Too bad they can't campaign saying that the democrats want to impeach Trump if they regain the house and senate. That might motivate voters to get out to vote.
O'Rourke will carry Dallas, Harris, Bexar, and Travis Counties, the Valley counties, and of course El Paso County, but not much else.
Might be worth losing the seat to hammer that point home. Better to lose one seat now if it saves a dozen seats in November.
And what happens to this district in November when the borders are realigned? Because you know this will be a rematch in November regardless of who wins. Will it be more Republican, more Democrat, or about the same?
LOL was looking for an article I saw (I go to many sources) and came upon this at Breitbart:
Report: More Than 100,000 Non-Citizens Are Registered Voters in Pennsylvania
They should be deported. PERIOD. Unless they fought in the infantry of the Marines or Army and are going to become citizens. Still shouldn’t be allowed to vote yet, though.
Its NOT the PA GOP... its ALL of them... the RNCC is not PA.... its the national party and its backers/etc.
I don’t expect Lamb to win, but if he does pull this off, there is no excuse other than the GOP messaging is NOT pulling voters in.
District changes should the Supreme’s map stand and the Federal courts/ USSC not take up the appeal.
We will see, but I can say without question the GOP is engaging, if they lose its about message not motivating.
I don’t think it will cost them this district, though it will likely be far closer than it should be... but the messaging MUST change if this is their pattern for Nov... because closer districts will be lost with this sort of campaign messaging.
The GOP would prefer a democrat to a Trumpster.
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